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  • Xinyuan Real Estate: What To Look For Going Forward [View article]
    I disagree Herb.

    At current prices, XIN could buy back every single share (except one of mine) with free cash on hand, and have over $10's of millions in free cash left over which I, as the only, shareholder would own every penny of.

    It doesn't matter what Real Estate prices do over the next 3 years. Prices may be a little deflated, but not so much so that they would be a better deal than XIN buying into their existing projects at $0.20 on the dollar.

    When current free cash exceeds market cap, a buyback is a risk free arbitrage opportunity, that is by definition better than any risky investment with an uncertain outcome. I hope management realizes this and acts accordingly.
    Feb 26, 2015. 05:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Paging Steve Nash to the Borgata [View news story]
    jake people will compete against each other, not the house. Payout ratio would be the same every time.
    Feb 25, 2015. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: What To Look For Going Forward [View article]
    No offense, but your "which has gotten far more attention than warranted by size" comment is a little silly since you've written articles about the company.

    I think the logic is flawed anyway, because you are measuring 'size' by market capitalization. XIN is a large company with a small market cap, and it seems most believe that won't last for very long.

    I appreciate your points in Section 3 about 'slowdowns'. Additionally There were a lot of junk apartments built in junk places that no one could do anything with, but that doesn't mean good properties in good spots are junk.

    It would be a slap in the face of every shareholder to end the buyback. At these prices it costs just a few mil a quarter. If they can't handle that then maybe they should drop the jet :).

    GL!
    Feb 24, 2015. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate - 2014 Sales Above Expectation, Recovery Underway [View article]
    Just out of curiosity, where are you finding the $450M revenue number you are expecting on Oosten?

    Also, why do you think institutions sold so much last quarter?

    Thank you for a great article. The current price is absurd and someday I am going to kick myself for not putting more in.
    Feb 20, 2015. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Hits 52-Week Low On DA Davidson Downgrade [View article]
    You guys may be right, but that won't keep you from getting squeezed.
    Jan 26, 2015. 05:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Rare Earth Resources: Advancing Metallurgy And Reason-Defying Valuation Make This Best In Breed REE Junior A Buy [View article]
    Critical investor, I love reading about this company. One that I am going to follow but probably not invest in for a while, if ever. SA is not doing a disservice by allowing this information to be out there.

    My wife cares nothing about investing but came across a medical article that happened to be on SA. It was an investment piece, but she ended up finding more info on an experimental drug that was available anywhere else on the internet.

    SA is putting information out there just like any other service. It is up to investors to read and decide for themselves. I like that they make articles like this 'pro' because the author gets paid on something they otherwise wouldn't make much on. Anyone can write about MSFT. SA is a great resource for that, but SA is a also great resource for info the lesser-known companies where most of the research has to be done from scratch.

    Anyway, thanks for the article Ben. Best wishes with your investment.
    Jan 26, 2015. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: MGT Technology's Q2 Earnings - Owning Up To The Worst Call Of My Career [View article]
    Any updates? Other fantasy sites are getting much of the airtime and it seems only the biggest will survive.

    MGT always intrigued me but it was always one I was willing to get in a little late on at the expense of missing an early pop.

    Football season is over and MGT is sitting at $0.50. What next?
    Jan 26, 2015. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Recovery: To Profit Or Not To Profit, That Is The Question [View article]
    "Unfortunately, oil and gas sales will not be a significant source of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2014, due to slow adoption and uptake of the products."

    It seems that oil at $50 is tougher than oil at $100 for ERII...

    Do you feel like the price of oil is relevant to how quickly this technology is adopted?
    Jan 26, 2015. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals: Higher Copper Prices Needed [View article]
    LOL that's what I told myself last year when I bought at $2.50 Shane. Copper will recover eventually no question. Where will XIN be and what will their lenders think of all this is. :)

    Good luck!
    Jan 26, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan: Significant Upside For The Long-Term Investor [View article]
    Good morning Herb! You said:

    "It is difficult to predict when Mr. Market will appreciate XIN's intrinsic value and price the stock accordingly. Two likely triggers, however, are the maturation of the Brooklyn project over the next two years..."

    Do you truly anticipate a drawn out process, or were you hedging and actually expecting results sooner? Either way, which do you see as a bigger catalyst and which do you see as the most near-term?

    1. New York Sales
    2. Q Earnings
    3. Yearly Guidance/CC
    4. Buybacks
    5. Take Private/Tender offer
    6. Buyout
    7. Macro events
    8. General Sales
    9. Other

    Thanks!
    Jan 19, 2015. 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan: Significant Upside For The Long-Term Investor [View article]
    Weall911 I believe the link you posted is incorrect. It refers to 363 units and 7 stories?

    The site I use is

    http://bit.ly/1zcfyVc

    It lists: 216 units 8 stories
    As a side note, this is a great place to keep track of sales.


    The official property website is:
    http://www.theoosten.com
    Jan 14, 2015. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan: Significant Upside For The Long-Term Investor [View article]
    Thank you for your article!

    I especially liked your analysis of performance relative to real estate increase baseline as I hadn't seen that covered before.

    "This means management compounded book value by about 10% per year above the rise in its real estate assets."

    In addition, I like that you have quantified how much of a doomsday scenario is priced in

    "If XIN's real estate assets lost 30% of their value (as of Q3 2014), the book value would still be about 2.5x current market capitalization."

    Thanks again for an interesting and well-researched perspective.
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan: Significant Upside For The Long-Term Investor [View article]
    Were they forced to redeem it, or was it a strategic decision? My impression was that they chose to do this so they could purchase more properties (which they have done) and the deal was the result of months of negotiation with TPG.
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate Buyback Is A Short-Term Catalyst [View article]
    Good morning Elliott!

    XIN wanted to grow when the TPG deal was put in place last year, so it seems odd to get out if it at this time when the option value on the converts sold was basically $0.00, and the interest rate was awesome at 5%. If it limited their options, then reasons to get out of it should also have been reasons to never get into it in the first place.

    I agree that there are risks... but I feel that bad scenarios have been priced in as near certainties here. The discount is greater than for companies listed on Chinese exchange where I think it should be at most equal, and probably less.

    Best wishes to you for 2015 as well!
    Dec 31, 2014. 05:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate Buyback Is A Short-Term Catalyst [View article]
    Thank you for your comment!

    While you may be correct, I'd see this as more of an 'excuse' than a real reason.

    A buyback would cost just a few million.. A drop in the bucket compared to everything else they've been doing. There is plenty of cash available even with the redemption and the land purchase.

    They wanted this Tianjin land so badly they were willing to not only close the 5% loan, but to pay a big PREMIUM to close 5% loan in order to get it. The opportunity cost here was enormous given that they could have simply invested in current projects at around 25% book through a buyback.

    Are the previous investments so bad that they'd rather pay a premium to get into something new at full price than simply pay $0.25 on the dollar for the old???

    That was the premise for my initial arguement that the buyback would be significant this quarter, that nothing would make more sense than a buyback. They may counter that they are buying what they can, and that they must do projects in addition to that. However, recent volume suggests that they may not be buying as much as they could be through the open window, and certainly not as much as they could through a tender offer or take private offer.
    Dec 30, 2014. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
217 Comments
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