I am a 'deep value' investor/analyst mainly focused on the US small-cap universe. I started out with a long-only bias (stocks trading close to NCAV etc.), but I have now started to focus on the short side as well. I am especially interested in instances of aggressive accounting and earnings manipulation. I am always looking to connect with fellow investors/analysts so do not hesitate to contact me! I am also passively looking for a job on the buy-side.
My investment decisions are based on the deep understanding of my own limitations in predicting the future. I pursue opportunities that present the highest risk-adjusted return. My focus is on companies with healthy economics: flexible companies that can survive the unpredictable future and still provide value to its shareholders in the long-term.
Long-term value investor.
I am interested in small capitalized companies with a high optionality to the upside compared to the relative downside risk. I am grounded in a value based approach but will also explore special situations. I am a trained CPA and continue to practice in industry.
Warning: my twitter account is very random but will have a lot of economic and business items sprinkled with Green Bay Packer comments.
I am a value conscious investor looking for bargains.
1) Price is what you pay, value is what you get
2) Success in investing is limiting losses when you're wrong, and maximizing gains when you're right
3) Start with business model. Margins reflect value add a company's products bring to the market place. Does the Gross Margin and the Product match? High GMs accompany differentiated products with limited competition that do not compete on price. Low GMs accompany undifferentiated products that compete on price, CAPEX spend, cyclicality.
4) How is the business financed? Be wary of companies with a lot of debt. Great businesses do not require huge debt to generate high returns on equity. There is no achievement in generating high ROEs by levering up like banks, leasing businesses (car rental, equipment rental, aircraft rental). ROA should be telling here.
4) A company's value changes because the NPV of future profits changes. NPV of future profits is a function of changes in revenues, gross margins, OPEX, leverage, taxation. A company's value appreciates when the NPV of profits goes up due to revenue growth, GM expansion, OPEX reduction, leverage (refinancing) / tax (change of domicile) reduction.
5) Markets look forward. Bottoms coincide with maximum pessimism while tops coincide with maximum euphoria.
6) A stock is not undervalued because it is cheap and it is not overvalued because it is expensive (based on traditional valuation metrics). Similarly, a stock is not undervalued because it has gone down a lot or overvalued because it has gone up a lot.
7) Look at market cap when valuing companies. Don't be overly influenced by management projections, analyst reports, share buybacks, cash on B/S, price movements, other people in the stock.
8) Companies with significant debt can go bankrupt. Cash burn typically determines if they go bankrupt before the cycle (for their industry or the economy) turns.
9) Undervalued stocks can get cheaper, overvalued stocks can get more expensive.
10) Keep emotion out of investing. You will be wrong. Unpredictable things will happen. Stay vigilant to anger, anxiety, exuberance. Stay vigilant to thesis creep.
11) Leverage will kill you sooner or later. Companies have large operating and financial leverage.
12) Have a thesis. If the thesis plays out, stay with it. If it doesn't exit. Always have a thesis.
13) Understand the business you are invested in. It's valuation and what can go wrong. Know the business inside out.
13) Don't trade.
14) Diversify. There are many good ideas in the market. Don't put your eggs in one basket.
15) Failing businesses rarely turnaround.
Full-time individual investor primarily in REITS (esp Commercial REITS); Business Development Cos (BDC's); Master Limited Partnerships (MLP's); Dividend Income Compounding; Some Writing Calls and also Put Selling; Main Sector interests include-Energy, Utilities, Retail, Financial, Healthcare (Medical Device Cos; Pharmaceuticals; Generics); Railroads; Insurance (Property and Casualty; Reinsurance); Consumer Staples (mainly Grocery and Food Cos); and Commodoties (Ags-Softs; Grains; and Ag Conglomerates).
Goal is to achieve a minimum return over the long-haul of 1% per month (compounded) while also adding to available investing funds on a monthly basis and my investment is long-term (am in no rush to reach a certain goal within a specific time frame.
Am a conservative dividend-focused long-term investor who is focused on dividend growth and reinvestment of all dividends received. Have been investing full-time since July 1, 2001, and was an insurance agent prior to that. 3 of my best stocks have been Simon Property Group (SPG); Perrigo (PRGO); and Kroger Grocery (KR).
William Armstrong has been a banker and a consultant in emerging markets finance for 30 years, mostly in Latin America. Presently he is working as a consultant to governments, to the World Bank and other international institutions, and to private companies in a variety of areas including banking supervision, microfinance, property rights, and corporate finance. Over the years he has advised many governments on how to manage financial crises and has followed events related to the current crisis very closely.
I‘m an economics undergraduate student of the Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn.
I got into investing at age 17 after reading the intelligent investor and other books about Warren Buffet.
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