ValueHuntr's Instablog ValueHuntr is a private investor.He believes that Ben Graham’s Value Investing principles present a rational roadmap for investing. His focus is on companies that meet the following criteria: 1) a market value significantly below intrinsic value, as measured by fundamental analysis with particular emphasis to companies with negative enterprise value; 2) a catalyst with a high probability of realization; and 3) a company of “secondary” nature, usually unaffected by the feelings of the general market crowd, out of favor, and out of sight from Wall Street analysts. Ideally, all companies he covers would meet all of the criteria set above. However, from time to time, he may also focus on companies that do not meet one or more of these guidelines if he feels one is sufficient to realize above average returns for shareholders. ValueHuntr http://seekingalpha.com OpenTable Inc. (OPEN) Q3 2010 Update http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/376204-valuehuntr/107370-opentable-inc-open-q3-2010-update?source=feed 107370 1)    The Q3 effective tax rate was 17%–without which EPS does not beat (it was 39% in Q2). It certainly helps to have lower taxes. If you consider greater shareholder dilution and tax adjust EPS, income only rose $0.006 per share from last quarter. 

2)    Revenue beat of $1.2M (~5%) on a $1.6B market cap company is insignificant. 

3)    Although the number of seated diners was up 54% and its installed restaurant base increased 31%, average monthly pricing declined  YOY in US from $268 to $252 and average  international subscription revenue  declined from $204 to $171.

4)     Although the number of installed restaurants is increasing, it is clear that the subscription revenue per restaurant is consistently lower every quarter.

5)    OpenTable still sells for more than 100 times this year’s expected earnings, and 17 times estimated sales. Such multiples leave little room for missteps, even as the competition grows.

 As some say, playing musical chair is all great and fun while the music is playing, but the fun always ends when the music stops. It will not take a day or a month, but eventually, Opentable’s music will stop, and my guess is that investors will be late at realizing this.



Disclosure: No Positions]]> Wed, 03 Nov 2010 09:43:57 -0400 1)    The Q3 effective tax rate was 17%–without which EPS does not beat (it was 39% in Q2). It certainly helps to have lower taxes. If you consider greater shareholder dilution and tax adjust EPS, income only rose $0.006 per share from last quarter. 

2)    Revenue beat of $1.2M (~5%) on a $1.6B market cap company is insignificant. 

3)    Although the number of seated diners was up 54% and its installed restaurant base increased 31%, average monthly pricing declined  YOY in US from $268 to $252 and average  international subscription revenue  declined from $204 to $171.

4)     Although the number of installed restaurants is increasing, it is clear that the subscription revenue per restaurant is consistently lower every quarter.

5)    OpenTable still sells for more than 100 times this year’s expected earnings, and 17 times estimated sales. Such multiples leave little room for missteps, even as the competition grows.

 As some say, playing musical chair is all great and fun while the music is playing, but the fun always ends when the music stops. It will not take a day or a month, but eventually, Opentable’s music will stop, and my guess is that investors will be late at realizing this.



Disclosure: No Positions]]> open Common Sense Investing: The Papers of Benjamin Graham http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/376204-valuehuntr/106420-common-sense-investing-the-papers-of-benjamin-graham?source=feed 106420 It took me over a year to do this, but after many trips to the NYC research library I’ve finally compiled over 40 papers originally written by Benjamin Graham into an easy-to-read book format. These papers are not part of either Intelligent Investor nor Security Analysis. The papers range from 1930 to 1974, basically Ben Graham’s entire professional life. Enjoy!

]]> Sun, 31 Oct 2010 16:20:34 -0400 It took me over a year to do this, but after many trips to the NYC research library I’ve finally compiled over 40 papers originally written by Benjamin Graham into an easy-to-read book format. These papers are not part of either Intelligent Investor nor Security Analysis. The papers range from 1930 to 1974, basically Ben Graham’s entire professional life. Enjoy!

]]> brk.a brk.b luk Short Idea: OpenTable (OPEN) http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/376204-valuehuntr/104773-short-idea-opentable-open?source=feed 104773



Disclosure: No position]]> Tue, 26 Oct 2010 14:27:04 -0400



Disclosure: No position]]> open Hawaiian Airlines a Buy http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/376204-valuehuntr/95382-hawaiian-airlines-a-buy?source=feed 95382 We recently put together an investment presentation where we recommend buying Hawaiian Airlines (HA) and shorting American Airlines (AMR). While HA is one of the best run airlines in the world, AMR is likely to be at a competitive disadvantage for years to come given the latest consolidation in the industry.

CLICK HERE FOR PRESENTATION



Disclosure: No Positions]]> Wed, 22 Sep 2010 12:23:58 -0400 We recently put together an investment presentation where we recommend buying Hawaiian Airlines (HA) and shorting American Airlines (AMR). While HA is one of the best run airlines in the world, AMR is likely to be at a competitive disadvantage for years to come given the latest consolidation in the industry.

CLICK HERE FOR PRESENTATION



Disclosure: No Positions]]> ha aamrq.pk airlines Viking, Greenlight Quarterly Letters http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/376204-valuehuntr/84535-viking-greenlight-quarterly-letters?source=feed 84535 Hedge funds that performed poorly for the quarter are once struggling to explain to their investors why they struggled and others didn’t. The typical explanation goes like this: “It’s not us, it’s the market”. To read the most recently published letters (Viking Global and Greenlight Capital) see below.

Viking Global

Greenlight Capital

]]> Thu, 29 Jul 2010 17:26:27 -0400 Hedge funds that performed poorly for the quarter are once struggling to explain to their investors why they struggled and others didn’t. The typical explanation goes like this: “It’s not us, it’s the market”. To read the most recently published letters (Viking Global and Greenlight Capital) see below.

Viking Global

Greenlight Capital

]]> ge goog aapl Doom & Fear - A Monthly Report http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/376204-valuehuntr/84145-doom-fear-a-monthly-report?source=feed 84145 We are delighted to introduce our latest monthy newsletter: Doom & Fear. Our most exclusive monthly report, the newsletter is ideal for sophisticated investors. It focuses on market-driven fears, panics, black swans, and doomsday scenarios playing out in the market. In a world where abnormal has become normal, the report provides investors with the clarity needed to take advantage of irrational market fears. As an added bonus, the report includes our own Doom & Fear Index, which aims to provide investors with a unique trading and market-timing tool.

CLICK HERE FOR SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION



Disclosure: No Positions]]> Tue, 27 Jul 2010 21:01:42 -0400 We are delighted to introduce our latest monthy newsletter: Doom & Fear. Our most exclusive monthly report, the newsletter is ideal for sophisticated investors. It focuses on market-driven fears, panics, black swans, and doomsday scenarios playing out in the market. In a world where abnormal has become normal, the report provides investors with the clarity needed to take advantage of irrational market fears. As an added bonus, the report includes our own Doom & Fear Index, which aims to provide investors with a unique trading and market-timing tool.

CLICK HERE FOR SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION



Disclosure: No Positions]]> goog ge brk.a brk.b aapl