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  • Seadrill Doesn't Quite Make The Cut [View article]
    Hi long_on_oil,

    We think the following article will be very valuable to read:

    http://bit.ly/ymi36D

    Hope you find the relationship as intriguing as we do.

    Thanks!

    The Valuentum Team
    Sep 9, 2013. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Doesn't Quite Make The Cut [View article]
    Hi IgnisFatuus,

    The time horizon is always of question, given that boards can often be in denial of many of the risks. We don't have a specific time horizon for when companies may cut their dividend, but this is something that we're working to improve with respect to clarification for readings.

    The way to view our Dividend Cushion is much like that of a credit rating offered by the credit agencies. A firm with a credit rating of BB is a junk rating, but that doesn't mean it's going to declare bankruptcy at a particular time. It is even possible the firm could even improve its rating to BBB, which is investment grade.

    Our Dividend Cushion score highlights the risk much like a credit rating highlights the risk (probability of default) of a firm's ability to pay its debt. We've yet to incorporate a timing element into our process, but we will.

    Stay up to date with developments at our website.

    Thanks for the question,

    The Valuentum Team
    Sep 9, 2013. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Holdings N.V.: Unique Opportunity As Liquidation Looms [View article]
    Hi Mike,

    If the business in the US should trade at 20 times earnings, and the business that is in fast-growing markets should trade at 8.75 times earnings, then we'd prefer the business in the US. You make no case for 15 times earnings.

    That's the whole basis behind your article. Defend the 8.75 times assumption, and why should it be trading at a level higher than that. There are some fast-growing companies that should trade below 10 times earnings because of their inherent risks.

    Using a DCF will get you the answer.
    Sep 8, 2013. 09:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mid-Con: The Oily Upstream MLP [View article]
    Still needs some work...a lot of work.
    Sep 7, 2013. 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Billabong: Accounting Principles Say Brand Is Worthless, But The Business Isn't [View article]
    What's wrong with using a free cash flow model to value shares? We don't think you can abruptly assume that the firm will ever achieve 12% margins. What's behind this thesis for profitability improvement, specifically. Using price/sales is very flawed -- especially for comps. And using a blanket 8 times EBITDA is not appropriate for all retailers as well. Too many unsupported assumptions.
    Sep 7, 2013. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Eagle Holdings: Under The Radar And Undervalued Hotel Operator [View article]
    No discussion of free cash flow trends. If the firm is burning through cash or if there is uncertainty as to how if may use it, then the discount is warranted.
    Sep 7, 2013. 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Torstar Shines Bright [View article]
    Newspapers having economic moats. No, Buffett is wrong on this one. He's in over his head because he owns WPO. Don't expect him to update his views anytime soon.
    Sep 7, 2013. 10:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Murphy USA: Follow The Spin-Offs [View article]
    What's the fair value if 2.3% gross margins are assumed (the level the firm earned last year) instead of the 2.7% forecast. That is an 18% improvement in profitability that remains questionable.

    Also, you can't just use maintenance capex as the net new investment if you are assuming growth in the future. Otherwise, the firm gets all the growth for free and don't have the cash outflows associated with earnings it.

    Our guess is that after making these adjustments you get a firm that is fairly priced.

    Thank you,

    The Valuentum Team
    Sep 7, 2013. 10:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Holdings N.V.: Unique Opportunity As Liquidation Looms [View article]
    But why would you peg 15 times earnings on it? That's the whole case behind shares being undervalued, and it wasn't made. Not all stocks deserve the market multiple.
    Sep 7, 2013. 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axcelis Technologies: At An Inflection Point, With Catalysts For Accelerated Earnings [View article]
    We can't believe investors still think they can peg fair values to a penny. The stock is trading at two bucks.
    Sep 7, 2013. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mid-Con: The Oily Upstream MLP [View article]
    No substantive valuation analysis or stress test scenarios.
    Sep 7, 2013. 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Doesn't Quite Make The Cut [View article]
    Again, if you'd like to insult our firm and degrade our livelihoods, please contact us. I am sure that our team would like to hear it first hand.

    Have a nice weekend!

    The Valuentum Team
    Sep 7, 2013. 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Doesn't Quite Make The Cut [View article]
    Yeah the Valuentum Dividend Cushion measure has predicted, in real-time, the dividend cuts, of SuperValu (SVU),
    Roundy’s (RNDY), Dover Downs (DDE), Strayer (STRA), Exelon (EXC), Cliffs Natural (CLF), Pitney Bowes (PBI),CenturyLink (CTL) and JC Penney (JCP)…

    Thank you for reading! You can call Brian Nelson, our President, a Missouri Mule--whatever that means. We'll give you his number.

    All the best,

    The Valuentum Team
    Sep 7, 2013. 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Doesn't Quite Make The Cut [View article]
    We'll keep publishing on Seeking Alpha until all commenters know who we are and what we stand for -- and are well aware of our awesome track record, robust stock-selection process, and skilled/experienced analyst team.

    We'll know this has happened when we start seeing more comments like the very first one on our articles from SaltyDog62:

    "Aren't you the guys that made a ton of money short NLY? Good call."

    When we feel like when we speak it means something to readers, then we know we have achieved our goal.

    In the meantime, we'll keep doing things right by making great calls, doing great research, refining/improving our process as we go, and investors will notice. They will. It just takes time.

    All the best,

    The Valuentum Team
    Sep 7, 2013. 08:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Doesn't Quite Make The Cut [View article]
    Hi DividendInvestorLA,

    If a stock goes from $35 to $15-$20 during the financial crisis, okay, but Seadrill went to $6 -- and there was a reason for it -- it's huge debt load.

    Frankly, we're saying the stock is fairly valued, so we're not making a huge case one way or another. With a coverage list of 1200 or so, we have a lot of stocks that fit this profile, but that doesn't mean that our analysis of them is any less significant.

    Seadrill doesn't make our cut. We like to look at the balance sheet and cash flow, and this makes our process different.

    All the best,

    The Valuentum Team
    Sep 7, 2013. 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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