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  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Hi Nick,

    Our Dividend Cushion is focused on the long-term -- we fully expect ConocoPhillips to raise its dividend in the next few years. However, dividend growth investors are looking for hikes in each of the next 25-30 years or more. We're not so sure over this time horizon, given the firm's capital structure, volatility of industry, commodity price swings, and future cash flow from operations generation relative to capital requirements.

    We're not saying that we don't like ConocoPhillips. We're just saying that the firm is not best-positioned to raise its dividend consecutively for the next decade or so. And for this, we think its dividend growth potential is very poor.

    Granted, our assessment could change on the basis of better than expected cash flow generation or continued allocation of cash to retire debt.

    Thanks for reading!

    The Valuentum Team
    Aug 22, 2013. 12:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Thanks Casey! Very much appreciated.
    Aug 21, 2013. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Hi Casey,

    I guess we'll say: read the financial statements! :)

    The Valuentum Team
    Aug 21, 2013. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Hi FleetUSA3226,

    The dividend is independent to our assessment of the firm's likelihood for capital appreciation, which is what our Valuentum Buying Index assesses. Here's more info on that:

    http://bit.ly/viu9MH

    Great discussion!

    Thanks for reading,

    The Valuentum Team
    Aug 21, 2013. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Thanks for reading flumeride!
    Aug 21, 2013. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    We think CLR, EOG, and APC are the most likely acquisition candidates across the energy space due to their shale assets in North America.

    Hope you find these leads at the very least interesting to pursue further!

    All the best,

    The Valuentum Team
    Aug 21, 2013. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Hi khatcher,

    Again, we'll point to the dangers of "group think" on these boards. Nobody said Conoco's dividend was going to be cut tomorrow. Our view is that Chevron has a stronger one -- a look at their balance sheets is perhaps one of the biggest differentiators.

    Thanks for reading!

    The Valuentum Team
    Aug 21, 2013. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Hi NickS2001,

    The crowd is often wrong on Seeking Alpha, as we've demonstrated recently with the mREITs, so please do your own digging and analysis. Again, we'll point to our body of research on COP at the following link:

    http://bit.ly/ZwmziO

    Hope you'll come check it out!

    All the best,

    The Valuentum Team
    Aug 21, 2013. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Hi oldokie,

    Though we haven't seen any of your work, we have quite a bit on our site. At risk of disappointing Seeking Alpha with this link, here's where you can find our body of research on ConocoPhillips:

    http://bit.ly/ZwmziO

    All the best,

    The Valuentum Team
    Aug 21, 2013. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Hi Casey Hoerth,

    Please take a free trial of our site. You'll be impressed at how much scaffolding there is!

    All the best,

    The Valuentum Team
    Aug 21, 2013. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Hi WheresTheDough,

    Every analyst has a valuation process -- that's correct. Those that do not have a valuation process may be in a bit of trouble when it comes down to deciding which stocks are attractive and which ones are not.

    We'd welcome you to visit our site where you can dig deeper into our 25-page long-term outlook on crude oil and our break down on which majors we like. This particular article addresses the firm's dividend.

    Hope this helps clarify things. Please take a look at our bio as well, as we hope our credentials lend some credibility to our posts.

    All the best,

    The Valuentum Team
    Aug 21, 2013. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Hi johnbferg,

    The firm's Dividend Cushion is well below 1; therefore, it doesn't meet the criteria.

    Thanks for pointing this out. We'd like to be as clear as possible.

    Kind regards,

    The Valuentum Team
    Aug 21, 2013. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Hi oldokie,

    Production is advancing quite well, and ConocoPhillips organic reserve replacement is best among peers. These are great things, but we have to look at the business in its entirety. The firm's net debt position is much larger than Chevron's to the tune of almost $20 billion. In other words, Chevron could issue a special one-time dividend of $20 and have the same net debt position as ConocoPhillips -- by extension then, who has the stronger dividend today?

    Here's some background reading:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Thanks so much for reading. Hope you come visit us.

    Kind regards,

    The Valuentum Team
    Aug 21, 2013. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Hi Daniel,

    We do plenty of art in our process. There's a ton of art in dividend analysis, as well, because board's can still raise the dividend, despite a company's underlying fundamentals. It seems as of late that many firms up their dividends when times become increasingly uncertain to. Our process is more geared for the long haul, where short-term management and/or board decisions have limited influence.

    At the end of the day, dividends are paid in cash, and we think a robust analysis of free cash flow and the balance sheet is paramount to assessing whether cash dividends can be paid in the future.

    The 'art' part of our work is also captured in the fair value range, or 'margin of safety,' which we apply to firms across our coverage.

    Thanks for reading!

    The Valuentum Team
    Aug 21, 2013. 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips' Dividend Is Not Great...Anymore [View article]
    Hi jesterboomer,

    Thank you so much for commenting on the article. We break down graphically how the Dividend Cushion is calculated at the following link:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    All the best,

    The Valuentum Team
    Aug 21, 2013. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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