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  • Facebook Riding The Sweet Tides Of Momentum [View article]
    Sure gariepy. The starting point is the price of the stock at the time our 16-page report was published for members to view on our website.

    Our fair value estimate is $32 per share, though it's important to emphasize the fair value range of the equity as well.

    Yes, we made a good but not great call here.

    Thanks for noticing.

    The Valuentum Team
    http://www.valuentum.com
    Sep 12, 2013. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High DGR Dividend Growth Challengers [View article]
    Thanks David. A track record is a great sign of the board's willingness to keep raising the dividend.
    Sep 10, 2013. 12:52 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Buy: A Discounted Cash Flow Process Would Have Served Investors Well [View article]
    Hi lehholliday,

    Thank you so much for commenting on our article. We appreciate it!

    The Valuentum Team
    Sep 9, 2013. 03:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Riding The Sweet Tides Of Momentum [View article]
    Hi Scout22,

    Is that really your takeaway? What if we told you we had a $32 fair value estimate when the stock was trading in the mid-$20s? Does this change your perspective?

    Thanks for reading!

    The Valuentum Team
    Sep 9, 2013. 03:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Murphy USA: Follow The Spin-Offs [View article]
    Hi Ariana Research,

    If the company is increasing its store count, and you are factoring growth in this regard, you MUST include the cost of the increased store count within the model. Basically, what you're saying is that any firm can just get the benefits of increasing their stores without actually paying for it. It's an imbalance in the model, unfortunately.

    Think of it as if you were management. Wouldn't it be great to get more stores without actually paying for them? When you ask this question, it starts to make more sense.
    Sep 9, 2013. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Doesn't Quite Make The Cut [View article]
    Hi long_on_oil,

    We think the following article will be very valuable to read:

    http://bit.ly/ymi36D

    Hope you find the relationship as intriguing as we do.

    Thanks!

    The Valuentum Team
    Sep 9, 2013. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Doesn't Quite Make The Cut [View article]
    Hi IgnisFatuus,

    The time horizon is always of question, given that boards can often be in denial of many of the risks. We don't have a specific time horizon for when companies may cut their dividend, but this is something that we're working to improve with respect to clarification for readings.

    The way to view our Dividend Cushion is much like that of a credit rating offered by the credit agencies. A firm with a credit rating of BB is a junk rating, but that doesn't mean it's going to declare bankruptcy at a particular time. It is even possible the firm could even improve its rating to BBB, which is investment grade.

    Our Dividend Cushion score highlights the risk much like a credit rating highlights the risk (probability of default) of a firm's ability to pay its debt. We've yet to incorporate a timing element into our process, but we will.

    Stay up to date with developments at our website.

    Thanks for the question,

    The Valuentum Team
    Sep 9, 2013. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Holdings N.V.: Unique Opportunity As Liquidation Looms [View article]
    Hi Mike,

    If the business in the US should trade at 20 times earnings, and the business that is in fast-growing markets should trade at 8.75 times earnings, then we'd prefer the business in the US. You make no case for 15 times earnings.

    That's the whole basis behind your article. Defend the 8.75 times assumption, and why should it be trading at a level higher than that. There are some fast-growing companies that should trade below 10 times earnings because of their inherent risks.

    Using a DCF will get you the answer.
    Sep 8, 2013. 09:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mid-Con: The Oily Upstream MLP [View article]
    Still needs some work...a lot of work.
    Sep 7, 2013. 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Billabong: Accounting Principles Say Brand Is Worthless, But The Business Isn't [View article]
    What's wrong with using a free cash flow model to value shares? We don't think you can abruptly assume that the firm will ever achieve 12% margins. What's behind this thesis for profitability improvement, specifically. Using price/sales is very flawed -- especially for comps. And using a blanket 8 times EBITDA is not appropriate for all retailers as well. Too many unsupported assumptions.
    Sep 7, 2013. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Eagle Holdings: Under The Radar And Undervalued Hotel Operator [View article]
    No discussion of free cash flow trends. If the firm is burning through cash or if there is uncertainty as to how if may use it, then the discount is warranted.
    Sep 7, 2013. 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Torstar Shines Bright [View article]
    Newspapers having economic moats. No, Buffett is wrong on this one. He's in over his head because he owns WPO. Don't expect him to update his views anytime soon.
    Sep 7, 2013. 10:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Murphy USA: Follow The Spin-Offs [View article]
    What's the fair value if 2.3% gross margins are assumed (the level the firm earned last year) instead of the 2.7% forecast. That is an 18% improvement in profitability that remains questionable.

    Also, you can't just use maintenance capex as the net new investment if you are assuming growth in the future. Otherwise, the firm gets all the growth for free and don't have the cash outflows associated with earnings it.

    Our guess is that after making these adjustments you get a firm that is fairly priced.

    Thank you,

    The Valuentum Team
    Sep 7, 2013. 10:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Holdings N.V.: Unique Opportunity As Liquidation Looms [View article]
    But why would you peg 15 times earnings on it? That's the whole case behind shares being undervalued, and it wasn't made. Not all stocks deserve the market multiple.
    Sep 7, 2013. 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axcelis Technologies: At An Inflection Point, With Catalysts For Accelerated Earnings [View article]
    We can't believe investors still think they can peg fair values to a penny. The stock is trading at two bucks.
    Sep 7, 2013. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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