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  • Chevron: Solid Company, Solid Dividend [View article]
    As I have stated, we will not be providing on research on Chevron on Seeking Alpha in the future. Thanks for your thoughts.

    Kind regards,

    Brian
    Feb 28 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Solid Company, Solid Dividend [View article]
    Also, a margin of safety is perhaps the most valuable thing an investor could have. Crude oil, the major output, of energy companies has increased many times over since the beginning of this century. Firms in the S&P 500 -- the average -- have advanced 40%. Having a relatively wide margin of safety is not only reasonable, but it is the correct way to look at things.

    Brian
    Feb 27 10:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Medtronic Could Double Its Dividend [View article]
    Hi aschulte@sjm.com,

    A firm has a variety of ways of dealing with locality of cash issues. For one, it can issue debt and use the cash to pay off the debt and the newly-raised proceeds to pay the dividend. Thank you for the thought.

    Kind regards,

    The Valuentum Team
    Feb 27 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Solid Company, Solid Dividend [View article]
    BAHAMAS,

    Thanks for belittling our work. Though I appreciate your thoughts, our process is working fantastically, and while you may not understand it, there are many that are doing very well because of it.

    Brian
    Feb 27 10:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Solid Company, Solid Dividend [View article]
    Hi rjj1960,

    Thank you for your thought. We have no obligation to update you on our thoughts on Chevron. I will personally make note to only update our members on our own website on Chevron going forward. I'm sensing an entitlement by you that may not be deserved.

    Kind regards,

    Brian
    Feb 27 10:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clorox: Good Company But Shares Aren't Cheap; Dividend Is Overrated [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. We typically roll our models forward when the company finalizes its annual report 10-k for the prior year. Hope this helps.

    Kind regards,

    The Valuentum Team
    Feb 27 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Impresses Again With Continued Growth [View article]
    Shares are down 5% today. Are you sure that feelings expressed here aren't just a bit biased?
    Feb 25 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Can Hit $10 This Year, But Investors Beware, Liquidity Is A Problem [View article]
    Thanks for linking to our piece!

    Kind regards,

    The Valuentum Team
    Feb 24 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There Are Better Dividend Growth Picks Than AT&T [View article]
    Hi yachtsman3,

    Thank you for the question. We think the research on AT&T in the article speaks for itself. We rely on member fees for our service, so we can't give everything away for free. We hope you can understand. And we certainly appreciate your enthusiasm for our ideas!

    Kind regards,

    The Valuentum Team
    Feb 24 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Defining Intrinsic Value Estimation: Johnson & Johnson [View article]
    You are too kind locutus49! We wish you the very best.

    The Valuentum Team
    Feb 24 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There Are Better Dividend Growth Picks Than AT&T [View article]
    Hi GemmaBaby,

    Our members pay for our ideas, so we can't give away our best dividend ideas for free on this board. However, we think we've done a good job explaining why AT&T's dividend growth prospects aren't as great as others'. Please come visit us.

    Kind regards,

    The Valuentum Team
    Feb 24 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Precise Fair Value Estimate Of ConocoPhillips Will Always Be Conceptually Wrong [View article]
    alrightalready,

    Thank you for the observation. Our fair value estimate is the mid-point of the fair value range.

    Kind regards,

    The Valuentum Team
    Feb 24 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Precise Fair Value Estimate Of ConocoPhillips Will Always Be Conceptually Wrong [View article]
    Hi David A Booth,

    These are some great questions and showcase the inherent forecasting difficult in valuing shares. Your questions also indicate an understanding of the importance of using a margin of safety and a probable range of fair value outcomes in any analysis. Changes in the energy prices will have a significant impact on both near and long-term forecasts for COP. Our near term forecasts generally do not differentiate from consensus estimates too much. The value we provide to our readers is in the long-term forecasts and the "reasonableness" we apply within the long-term forecasts themselves. We use a discounted cash flow model with thousands of assumptions, so asking about earnings is more a function on what we think will happen to the top line and margins. Generally speaking, for most of our analysis, we'll be very close to non-GAAP consensus estimates over the next two years and fade that to normalized expectations by Year 5. From year 5 through year 15, we apply the "reasonableness" forecast. The laws of compounding are very important to apply during this horizon of our DCF model -- so even a 3% rate of expansion in a volatile end market such as oil and gas is difficult to disagree with. Implicit in that 3% forecast is the benefits accruing during an energy upswing and the difficulties of a energy downswing through the course of the economic cycle. The way to think about that number is that there is a 3% upward growth bias to the general economic and energy cycle over the long term, a view that we think is reasonable. We offer our DCF valuation models for all companies in our coverage universe as part of our financial advisor plan.

    Thanks again for the question.

    The Valuentum Team
    Feb 24 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There Are Better Dividend Growth Picks Than AT&T [View article]
    Hi all,

    Thank you for reading and commenting!

    Kind regards,

    The Valuentum Team
    Feb 18 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Doesn't Quite Make The Cut [View article]
    Hi DividendInvestorLA,

    Our process rests on assigning a fair value range, not a precise fair value estimate. Value is always a range of outcomes. What you'll find in the article is the following:

    "In the graph below, we show this probable range of fair values for Seadrill. We think the firm is attractive below $35 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above $57 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm, in our opinion."

    We appreciate your reading our articles, but you have to understand that our interests are aligned. We're looking out for investors just like you. We're not trying to hurt your investment. But for those that read the article at the time it was published and held off until now to consider it, they'd certainly be better off. Still, we're only trying to help.

    Kind regards,

    Brian
    Feb 17 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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