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  • Substantial Upside As USA Truck's Turnaround Trucks On [View article]
    analysis is aggresive? How so?

    The Company's SCS division is growing very quickly and only 5 percent of its business is fulfilled on USA Truck's fleet. Anyone who tells you this business is not separable (Company included) is lying to you.

    Consider this scenario: The Company earns a 2.5 pct Operating Margin (about 1/3 of the industry average before industry wide pricing increases) and you get 9 mm of EBIT. Add in 16 or so for SCS (also is growing) and you get to 25m or so of EBIT. 25 - interest of 2 = 23 * .65 = 15/10.3 = 1.45 of EPS. Comparable company multiples on 2015 EPS are around 16x-18x earnings. Under those circumstances you still get a value of around 25.00 a share.

    A 2.5 percent operating margin would be very disappointing in my view especially in light of pricing gains that are upcoming. With your downside being book value of the trucks + SCS and engaged activists, hard to refute the margin of safety in this investment.
    Jun 15 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Substantial Upside As USA Truck's Turnaround Trucks On [View article]
    I disagree. I think things will unfold very quickly here.

    Look at Vadim's recent track record at XRTX.

    1. Gets them to pay special div/distribute cash.
    2. Gets on Board.
    3. Sells Company. All in one year.

    I think if the turnaround isnt accelerating (like q2 2014) they will sell / spin off trucks to maximize their value during this trucking renaissance and let SCS trade standalone. 10-15x EBIT of 15-20mm -- more than today's market cap. The author's AUTO multiples are irrelevant because AUTO was subscale and a franchise business. Company owned locations are much more valuable in brokerage/logistics.

    I think salvage value of trucks is 15 ish (today!) so gets you to low/mid 30s combining the two parts.

    Book value of trucks is around 10.00. Training cost of drivers is about 30mm (15k per driver at 2000+ drivers) and the trucks re-sale value prob exceeds book value (around 12-13). Look at most trucking companies last qtr...they averaged 20-30 pct gains to GAAP Book Value when they sold trucks....Accelerated depreciation for tax purposes does not equal real economic cost in this case....

    If trucking turnaround goes than you have about 4.00 of EPS and 16x EPS is around 64.00 a share.

    I think Vadim would take 30 today versus 60 sometime in the future (if the time to low 90s OR is uncertain).
    May 28 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hollywood Media: Waking Up From A Coma [View article]
    Case settled.
    http://bit.ly/HY03XO;end_date=

    Not sure why these yahoos are selling this. Doubt Mitch settles for less than 100mm......
    Nov 13 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Edward Lampert's Baby: Is A REIT Around The Corner? [View article]
    Yes. and he also has money in the fund. the shares outside the fund were taken out between 2010/2011 when he thought carried interest rules were going to change. He has made promote in his fund since then which would imply he has personal money int he fund.

    not to mention, he could always add cash from outside the fund to increase his stake.
    Jun 13 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Edward Lampert's Baby: Is A REIT Around The Corner? [View article]
    eddie satisfied a massive distribution with every other stock in his portfolio EXCEPT for SHLD. That is him effectively BUYING more.

    DOESNT EVEN NEED TO FILE A 13D!!!!
    Jun 13 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iStar Financial: Enigmatic But Attractive [View article]
    dont forget all the shares he bought back....
    Jun 5 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Edward Lampert's Baby: Is A REIT Around The Corner? [View article]
    no. 3bn.
    Jun 1 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Edward Lampert's Baby: Is A REIT Around The Corner? [View article]
    what makes the stock go up except for eddie buying?

    hes not explaining the hundreds of mm's hes spending on SYW and the street refuses to capitalize these investments.

    Its guilty until proved innocent with SHLD....
    May 30 07:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing The Sears Risk Of Insolvency Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
    what makes it go up?

    other than him buyings...
    May 29 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing The Sears Risk Of Insolvency Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
    I own the stock and its certainly worth more...

    but what makes it go up other than him buying?

    SHOS is doing great... but its outside of the mothership, away from the pension, debt, etc. (even with non guarantor, etc.).

    Nobody gets it and he doesnt want you to know. What changes that?
    May 29 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Radiant Logistics: A Coiling Spring [View article]
    how do you argue it "might" come? hes paid for it. these customer lists are usually 20 years old/long.

    if you were to say this is a biz predicated purely on organic growth then I would say sure... maybe. but harder to handicap earnings that are already "there".
    Apr 18 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Radiant Logistics: A Coiling Spring [View article]
    ROIC is in fact very high. Far higher than cost of capital. This is presumably an infinite ROIC biz. Even if you issue stock at 8 pct cost of capital you are financing at a 20 to 25 pct pre-tax yield.....But the important thing to note is that there is almost zero maintenance capital expenditures on a go-forward basis -- making these deals highly accretive and producing very high ROIC and ROEs.
    Feb 20 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Media General: This Pig Might Fly [View article]
    they will breach covenants next qtr and your point is moot.
    Sep 29 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Radiant Logistics: Great Management in a Great Business at a Great Price [View article]
    yes, that is me/I.

    your comment is very astute --- "It sounds to me like the niche is that the industry, fragmented and unconsolidated as it is, simply hasn't had anyone come in yet who could maximize economies of scale, and Radiant feels like it's up to that task. Am I understanding this right?"

    This is a very poorly run, fragmented, and clubby industry but growing. Outsourced logistics its growing at 10-15 pct a year. CHRW and EXPD represent such a small portion of a 150bn industry that is growing at 10 pct a year!. Its no coincidence that one of the best consolidators of the 90's/00's -- Brad jacobs chose the industry to roll up. I just think you are getting a better platform here and Bohn is buying stuff cheaper -- "creating more value". hope this helps.

    Best,


    Adam
    Aug 6 01:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Radiant Logistics: Great Management in a Great Business at a Great Price [View article]
    4 years out it could be absurd. who knows. maybe even .50, 75, 1.00 a share. It depends on how many onboards he can do and how many deals he can do. I think hes commited to not doing stock deals at these levels...so I am pretty confident the denominator will stay the same. Given the low cost nature of their debt and miminal real D+A. Cash EPS has a good runway. It really just depends on how quickly Bohn is able to oboard new stations, layer on new services (customs brokerage) things thats would be happenining in existing footprint, and the rate at which he converts franchise stores to company owned.

    There is clearly risk to any biz but you are making a play on the jockey here. He built this from nothign and I am comfortable/confident he can build this into someting special. You have to be comfortable making tthat bet.
    Jul 15 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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