Vandana Bharti

Agro Commodities: A Star Future Performer

Thanks for the comment


On Jun 15 11:46 AM Jade Queen wrote:

> In some parts of the world, where resource use caused drought and
> climate change, new forests are being planted and changes in growing
> methods are being implemented. An example can be viewed on TED, Technology,
> Entertainment, Design, in Indonesia, search by Willie Smits. Further,
> in places such as India, where the U.S. style agriculture has not
> worked for many farmers, a return to open-pollinated seeds adapted
> to that particular climate is happening in agricultural-coop models.
>
>
> I bring this up as a caution.

Agro Commodities: A Star Future Performer

Heartiest thanks Sir,
What I missed, you added those stuffs. Once again thanks


On Jun 15 10:52 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> Check out this piece. I don’t normally rely on National Geographic
> magazine for investment advice, but in the June issue the screaming
> long term bull case for the soft commodities is there in all its
> glory. During the sixties, new dwarf varieties, irrigation, fertilizer,
> and heavy duty pesticides tripled crop yields, unleashing a green
> revolution. But guess what? The world population has doubled from
> 3.5 to 7 billion since then, eating up surpluses, and is expected
> to rise to 9 billion by 2050. Now we are running out of water in
> key areas like the American West and Northern India, droughts are
> hitting Africa and China, soil is exhausted, and global warming is
> shriveling yields. Water supplies are so polluted with toxic pesticide
> residues that rural cancer rates are soaring. Food reserves are now
> at 20 year lows. Rising emerging market standards of living are consuming
> more and better food, with Chinese pork production rising 45% from
> 1993 to 2005. The problem is that meat is an incredibly inefficient
> calorie transmission mechanism, creating demand for five times more
> grain than just eating the grain alone. I won’t even mention the
> strain the politically inspired ethanol and biofuel programs have
> placed on the system. It is possible that genetic engineering, sustainable
> farming, and smart irrigation could lead to a second green revolution,
> but the burden is on scientists to deliver. The net net of all of
> this is that food prices are going up, a lot. Entertain core long
> positions in corn, wheat, and soybeans on the next dip, as well as
> the second derivative plays like Agrium (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> Potash (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) and Monsanto (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
> You might also look at DB Commodities Tracking Index Fund (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
> These will all surpass last year’s stratospheric highs at some point.

Commodities: Opportunity During Recession

Dear,

Thaks for the feedback and question, scenario of agro commodities, especially corn, which is used for multi purpose, is completely different from 1932. Population has blasted in these time period. significant amount of production is moving in bio fuel anf many more uses. hence we can expect aquic recovery this time on demand supply analysis. However, I am not giving here one year time period, it will improve in 2-3 year time period.


On May 23 07:08 PM popey wrote:

> So in the 1930s it took 8 years for corn to recover fully. And you
> are calling a recovery in commodities markets after 1 year, 2008
> to 2009.
> Please explain the 5-7 year timing difference.

Time to Exit Oil / Gold Pair Trade

Well I am surprised, same stratgy I adopt on the same day 20th of aptil. We got good profit here. This is an uncertain time where personally I expect that both gold and oil should move in a tight band, hence this strategy wont be fruitfull as it was in the recent past. But what I feel that if we reversethe strategy and go for "buy gold and sell oil " in the fourth quarter , then it can work.

Gold In Backwardation? Not So Fast ..

We should not forget that, whenever US debt rises, gold rises tremendously. Currently, US debt is a altime high, it can give support to gold. Even GCC is not comfortable at the current level of crude and this gradual production cut will give impact on crude prices at the time, when economy will start to revive due to all these measures viz., bailout packages and continuous interest rate cut. world economy is moving towards zero interest rate regieme and printng money continuously, which is not now because it is not a normal situation but in mid to long term will inject inflation. That time gold will rise.

Gold In Backwardation? Not So Fast ..

We should not forget that, whenever US debt rises, gold rises tremendously. Currently, US debt is a altime high, it can give support to gold. Even GCC is not comfortable at the current level of crude and this gradual production cut will give impact on crude prices at the time, when economy will start to revive due to all these measures viz., bailout packages and continuous interest rate cut. world economy is moving towards zero interest rate regieme and printng money continuously, which is not now because it is not a normal situation but in mid to long term will inject inflation. That time gold will rise.