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Vaughn Cordle, CFA

 
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  • Deutsche Bank: Airline stocks still have room for growth [View news story]
    Deutschce Bank does not lie.

    Return on capital is a different return than GAAP earnings or stock price returns. Those that don't understand the difference need to do their research before they accuse someone of not telling the truth.


    Jun 18, 2014. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Keynesianism Is Headed For Irrelevancy [View article]
    Harold's views on government spending matches up with our year long analysis of how fiscal policy impacts real GDP growth, employment levels, and after-tax income for the middle class. While we were focused on the airline industry, we first had to examine how government spending and taxes impact the broader economy.

    Conclusion: Our country has reached a tipping point in terms of debt. Real debt which includes unfunded liabilities that are about 6X higher than reported federal debt. Decades of overspending, and now ObamaCare, requires higher taxes and lower government spending, both of which will reduce growth, employment, and upward mobility for the middle class.

    Excellent commentary Harold...keep it coming.
    Sep 18, 2013. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airline Pricing Power And The DOJ's Case [View article]
    Thank you Harold, I'm glad to see that you too agree.

    Also glad that you posted your DOJ "Flies in the Wrong Direction" post on SA.
    Sep 18, 2013. 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airline Pricing Power And The DOJ's Case [View article]
    I agree.
    Sep 13, 2013. 09:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Airline Pricing Power And The DOJ's Case [View article]
    Not sure, but as a consumer I would not be happy to see big competitors merge because fewer competitors equal higher prices.

    However, as an analyst I have to go by the numbers and the numbers say these airlines have to be profitable enough to buy new fuel efficient aircraft, which can lower costs. And, the AA+US merger can produce over $1 billion in synergies that can be shared with the consumer in the form of better, more, and lower-cost service. The DOJ's case doesn't take any of this into account.

    The DOJ's argument could be called the "one merger too many" argument. Perhaps they feel that it's good politics to try and stop the last big merger since deregulation.

    I can run the numbers and value financial/operating risk, but I don't know how to measure political risk!
    Sep 6, 2013. 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Airline Pricing Power And The DOJ's Case [View article]
    Hi Carlos,
    I agree that the express airlines have no control over where they fly, and are in fact controlled by the network airlines. The reason I included a unit of capacity HHI is to highlight how the networks have been able to deploy lower-labor cost capacity. The express airlines carry 16% of the system passengers and these fares would be materially higher if they had to pay mainline labor costs.

    Sep 5, 2013. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Republic Airways: Frontier Dilemma And Investment Outlook [View article]
    There appears to be a disconnect between your expectations and our intention. We have indeed performed a full valuation analysis on RJET but cannot give it all away.

    We occasionally post some of our findings in the more public forums when there is high interest in a given airline story. The key insight that the market assigns little or no value to Frontier was something we thought important to share.

    For more information about our full valuation of RJET, Frontier, and the regional business please contact us by visiting our Ionosphere Capital web site.
    Apr 2, 2013. 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • US Airways (LCC) says the AMR (AAMRQ.PK) corporate name will disappear following the merger between the two companies, a reversal of previous comments from CEO Doug Parker. The companies expect the deal to be completed in Q3, although full system integration will probably take much longer than that. [View news story]
    I don't think this comment is a reversal of anything. All that has been said that I've seen is that the merged airlines will use the "American" name and livery. Nothing has been said about the name of the corporate parent.
    Feb 21, 2013. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delta's Aggressive Initiatives Are Undervalued [View article]
    It's more than that temporal. Frequency can be adjusted; lower unit operating costs make different fare levels economic and alter resulting supply/demand balances; two-class service will generate more revenues. At current fuel prices and maintenance expenses 50-seaters are simply not economic in many markets where they're being flown.
    Feb 20, 2013. 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delta's Aggressive Initiatives Are Undervalued [View article]
    We took more than a few looks at the refinery deal. If there were more to the story we would have commented on it. If you have additional information, please elaborate. Just because someone who helped set up the deal left...that provides no evidence that there is "something more" to the story.
    Feb 20, 2013. 06:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMR And US Airways: Is Labor A Poison Pill? [View article]
    AA believes that current shareholders could get about 3.5% of the equity of the new company....as percentage of new market value which is currently estimated to be ~$11 billion. This value could change once the airline emerges from BK and issues new shares.
    Feb 18, 2013. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New American Airlines: $13 Billion Potential Value [View article]
    Fitch is simply using the weighted average value of the combined airlines today, which is not an estimate of what the value will be after AA emerges from BK or after the merger is completed.
    Feb 15, 2013. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New American Airlines: $13 Billion Potential Value [View article]
    smart money is cashing out on big move up in LLC in anticipation of the merger announcement. Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

    This short term variation has nothing to do with the longer term valuation which will be based on industry and company fundamentals.
    Feb 15, 2013. 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New American Airlines: $13 Billion Potential Value [View article]
    It's likely that the old shares will have some value....likely in the 3.5% range...of the initial value of the company which should be in $10 billion range. Hard to know precise value yet.
    Feb 14, 2013. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMR And US Airways: Is Labor A Poison Pill? [View article]
    It now appears that there may be some value salvaged for current shareholders of AA.
    Feb 12, 2013. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
63 Comments
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