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Vegas Ben  

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  • LinkedIn upsizes stock offering to $1.2B, prices it at $223 [View news story]
    Interesting!
    Sep 4, 2013. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is LinkedIn Copying From Facebook? [View article]
    I agree. I won't even click on anyone's profile. My LinkedIn home page is filled with "has a new connection" and "updated profile" messages, but I won't even check to see what their updates are, because I don't want to look like a stalker. Only 1 person out of 53 professional connections posts stuff on a regular basis. I'm assuming most of the web traffic is bots with a some activity from recruiters and a very small percentage of people that use LinkedIn for the forums and connecting to other professionals. LinkedIn is a great source of data for bots, because people post stuff publicly (i.e. where they work) that they aren't even willing to put on their private Facebook pages.

    LinkedIn will likely have money coming in from recruiters for years and years to come, but I don't see any significant value in anything else that they do. Advertisers will eventually wake up and pull their ads from LinkedIn when they realize that they are advertising to bots.
    Aug 21, 2013. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Facebook, This Is The Social Media Stock To Own [View article]
    At least $FB has legitimate, active users. I'm pretty sure that $LNKD is used mostly by bots.
    Aug 15, 2013. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: New Highs As Shorts Have Riskiest Position [View article]
    I don't see why LinkedIn can't become the first 1 trillion dollar company. Clearly, the amount of money they make is irrelevant!
    Aug 12, 2013. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: New Highs As Shorts Have Riskiest Position [View article]
    Via Jan 14 puts that are almost worthless now.
    Aug 11, 2013. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: New Highs As Shorts Have Riskiest Position [View article]
    So funny... because Fox News Corp bought MySpace right before it went kaput for $580 million. Several years later, they sold it for $35 million.
    Aug 9, 2013. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: New Highs As Shorts Have Riskiest Position [View article]
    Amazing! Nearly every cent that the company earns goes into the insiders' pockets!
    Aug 8, 2013. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why LinkedIn Will Be A $300 Stock This Time Next Year [View article]
    I think it is far more likely that it is longs driving the price up through leverage. When the price goes up, they are using their higher borrowing limits to borrow more.
    Aug 7, 2013. 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why LinkedIn Will Be A $300 Stock This Time Next Year [View article]
    MySpace had groups... Look what good it did for them.
    Aug 6, 2013. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why LinkedIn Will Be A $300 Stock This Time Next Year [View article]
    Not likely since short sellers are only about 4-5% of the entire float last time I checked.
    Aug 6, 2013. 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Simple Bearish Points For LinkedIn Into Earnings [View article]
    "LinkedIn on the other hand has a decade's worth of professional relationships that would be almost impossible to replace."

    A competitor would not need to replace the relationships. They would only need to re-establish a connection for the relationships on the new site. There is very little value in clicking on "Request" and "Accept". It takes very little effort and therefor, has little value. It would be quite easy for another site to come along and give the ability to connect to "friends" from other sites, as social networking sites usually do. (i.e. Facebook can scan your Yahoo contacts for "friends"; Pinterest notifies users if one of their Facebook friends joins Pinterest; etc.)

    "Finally, viewing LNKD as a job board is incredibly short sited"

    LinkedIn isn't just a job board, it is also a message board.
    Jul 31, 2013. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Simple Bearish Points For LinkedIn Into Earnings [View article]
    To be fair, you suggested that I short $TSLA at $60 instead of shorting $LNKD at 177. $TSLA is now at 134 and $LNKD is now at 204. I'm losing plenty of money on LNKD, but not even close to as bad as I would be if I had listened to you on TSLA.
    Jul 31, 2013. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Simple Bearish Points For LinkedIn Into Earnings [View article]
    One of the reasons why LNKD does not have any major competitors is that many of the big internet players (YHOO, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, etc.) have very little interest in the $80 million per year or so that LNKD earns. An extra $80 million per year in earnings for AAPL would cause their stock price to go up by about 90 cents based on a P/E of 10. If they split the money evenly with LNKD, then it would only be 45 cents. If LNKD gets to the point where their business does appear to have significant value, then you can bet that there will be competitors popping up everywhere.
    Jul 30, 2013. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Simple Bearish Points For LinkedIn Into Earnings [View article]
    1. MySpace has proven that the network effect has little to no value. FB has improved upon MySpace and has created value where there wasn't any. I believe this is partially due to an enormous amount of pentration into almost all demographics and partially due to nearly limitless storage (never ending timeline, unlimited photos, etc.) LNKD is almost identical to MySpace in terms of network value. The social connections are very loose, and can easily be re-stablished on a newcomer's site. Something like 90-95% of users' connections are inactive. Most people do not post, upload content, etc., so they have very little, if any, built up value. In terms of active users, the value is similar to the social connection value between members on SeekingAlpha or any other internet forum. In terms of network effect, I believe that you are completely wrong about LNKD.

    2. I do agree with you on this point. LNKD appears to currently be the #1 job board. However, Monster used to be #1 also, but its P/E is 11.47 now instead of 600 like LNKD.

    Finally, many of the LNKD bears do not believe that LNKD is done growing, but they do believe that LNKD cannot grow at a rate to justify its current stock price.
    Jul 30, 2013. 02:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn Corporation Is Still In The Formative Stages Of Its Growth [View article]
    That 68.5% is how much they have sold over the last 6 months. If you look at the past 12 months, you'll see that they have sold 99.7% of their shares.

    http://bit.ly/12mrs9S

    Why wouldn't they sell? Where else can you sell stock at a ttm P/E of 540? They sell their shares pretty much as soon as they are awarded to them.
    Jul 3, 2013. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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