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Vegas Ben

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  • Why LinkedIn Will Be A $300 Stock This Time Next Year [View article]
    I think it is far more likely that it is longs driving the price up through leverage. When the price goes up, they are using their higher borrowing limits to borrow more.
    Aug 7 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Simple Bearish Points For LinkedIn Into Earnings [View article]
    One of the reasons why LNKD does not have any major competitors is that many of the big internet players (YHOO, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, etc.) have very little interest in the $80 million per year or so that LNKD earns. An extra $80 million per year in earnings for AAPL would cause their stock price to go up by about 90 cents based on a P/E of 10. If they split the money evenly with LNKD, then it would only be 45 cents. If LNKD gets to the point where their business does appear to have significant value, then you can bet that there will be competitors popping up everywhere.
    Jul 30 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Do Not Buy This Dip [View article]
    I'm going to need dips that are bigger than 1% to scare me away! I'm buying on this dip!
    May 29 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Even With Extreme EPS Growth, LinkedIn Is Still A Loser's Bet [View article]
    That is exactly why I base my bear views on the price to sales ratio. It seems to be currently hovering around 17-20, which is extremely high. Compare that ratio to other companies, and you'll clearly see that it isn't just the earnings that has to grow. They would have to grow revenue by a LOT in order to get the P/E even close to a normal level, whether they are re-investing earnings or not.
    LNKD: 17.62
    GOOG: 5.52
    FB: 11.08
    AMZN: 1.87
    INTC: 2.26
    ZNGA: 2.21 (If it was at its IPO price of $10, it would be 6.5 right now)
    CRM: 8.79
    TSLA: 10.67
    May 23 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) releases Tim Cook's official statement (.pdf) to the Senate ahead of his Tuesday appearance at a hearing on corporate tax payments. Among other things, Apple claims it paid ~$6B in federal taxes in FY12 and a 30.5% effective federal tax rate, and that its foreign units don't engage in the practices the hearing focuses on (the shifting of IP to offshore havens, revolving loans from subsidiaries, etc). The company proposes a tax system that's "revenue neutral, eliminates all tax expenditures, lowers tax rates and implements a reasonable tax on foreign earnings." (previous[View news story]
    There is a a pretty big difference between deferring taxes and not paying taxes. When the money is brought into the U.S., and it likely will be, they will pay taxes on it. However, they will likely wait until there is a "tax holiday" or some significant tax reform before they do it.

    The executives are making smart financial decisions, and if they didn't make smart financial decisions, they'd likely get fired and replaced with people who would.
    May 20 08:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) releases Tim Cook's official statement (.pdf) to the Senate ahead of his Tuesday appearance at a hearing on corporate tax payments. Among other things, Apple claims it paid ~$6B in federal taxes in FY12 and a 30.5% effective federal tax rate, and that its foreign units don't engage in the practices the hearing focuses on (the shifting of IP to offshore havens, revolving loans from subsidiaries, etc). The company proposes a tax system that's "revenue neutral, eliminates all tax expenditures, lowers tax rates and implements a reasonable tax on foreign earnings." (previous[View news story]
    Saying emissions control causes pollution is like saying that quitting smoking causes lung cancer.
    May 20 05:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Even With Extreme EPS Growth, LinkedIn Is Still A Loser's Bet [View article]
    "That means that LinkedIn's EPS will have to grow from $0.21 to just above $75 until 2022. "

    Can you please explain how a company priced at $175 has to grow earnings to $75 per share in order to be a sensible investment? That would be an absurdly low P/E of 2.33.

    I agree that LNKD longs are likely to lose money in the long term, but there appears to be a significant flaw in your calculations.
    May 13 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Morgan Stanley/Apple: Huberty claims iPhone 5 shipments are now "on track to meet carrier volume expectations" following a slow start. She also thinks iPhone 4 price cuts could boost near-term demand (will margins take a hit?). Apple has been offering iPhone 4 promotions in India and other major emerging markets, in order to woo buyers who can't afford its regular unsubsidized price ($485 in India). In-line with many other reports, Huberty expects the iPhone 5S to launch around September, and a cheaper iPhone to arrive. [View news story]
    "58 Bn to buy puts with"

    I think you mean "58 Bn to sell puts with."
    May 8 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Budget iPhone Is A Bad Idea [View article]
    Any developer with at least half of a brain would develop for both!
    May 6 07:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn Like Microsoft And Baidu - Watch Out Below [View article]
    Lack of competition doesn't make a company worth 18-20 billion dollars! Maybe the lack of competition is because the big tech companies don't think it is worthwhile to compete for a paltry 20 million dollars in earnings.
    May 4 12:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - 16 Things To Watch In The Week Ahead (4/26/13) [View article]
    Wow! Is he really recommending buying deep in the money call options for LNKD? I can't predict the future, but even if the price goes up, this recommendation is one of the most irresponsible stock recommendations I have ever seen!
    Apr 30 01:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Apple (AAPL) commentary: 1) Horace Dediu estimates the iPhone and iPad's component costs respectively rose 29% and 65% Y/Y in FQ2, well above rev. growth of 3% and 40%. This, along with a mix shift towards iPads, is mostly responsible for Apple's gross margin drop (rather than price pressure). 2) Tero Kuittinen sees similarities between 2013 Apple and 2007 Nokia. "The strongest parallel is in the weird way both companies started fighting the consumer preference for larger displays … and then dug in as margins began eroding rapidly." Tim Cook may have just hinted a bigger iPhone will eventually arrive. But how long will it take? (yesterday[View news story]
    My 7" tablet easily fits into most of my pants! <-- Don't take this the wrong way!
    Apr 29 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook (AAPL) on the five-inch smartphone: "Our competitors have made some significant trade-offs in many of these areas in order to ship a larger display. We would not ship a larger display iPhone while these trade-offs exist." He adds that if IDC's right, the smartphone market declined 30% since December, so Apple's decline of 15% beat the market. [View news story]
    I wish the stock would sell at $300 per share. Can you imagine if Apple's average buying price for their own shares was $300? They would eliminate approximately 20% of the shares.
    Apr 23 08:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Where The Value Is At [View article]
    ManoLive, following the trend would have led to you buying Apple at $700.
    Apr 23 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL): FQ2 EPS of $10.09 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $43.6B (+11% Y/Y) beats by $1.1B. 37.4M iPhones, 19.5M iPads, just under 4M Macs. Expects FQ3 revenue of $33.5B-$35.5B, below $39.3B consensus. Buyback increased by $50B. Shares halted. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    $3 to buy $1 + 3$ more in earnings over the next 9 years and then you'd still have the option to sell what you have for $3. It sounds like $3 to buy $6 to me.
    Apr 23 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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