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  • I Agree With Yellen, Sell Biotech Right Now [View article]
    The 300% or so debt to GDP ratio in the US precludes higher short-term rates because interest on the national debt already consumes 10% of the federal budget. Not to mention the anemic global economy and desired portfolio "wealth effect."
    Oct 27 02:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech Boom, Or Bubble? [View article]
    Mutual funds offer little over ETFs. When retail investors start to realize that it will be game over for a lot of cushy office-sitters.
    Mar 28 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch The Financial Markets In Europe [View article]
    Good but I'd like to see more data and fewer quotes.
    Feb 9 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We See What We Want To See [View article]
    The complaint is completely justified -- and it is a complaint, strictly speaking.
    Jan 6 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Investment In Exchange-Traded Gold Funds Jumped 56% From The Prior Year [View article]
    Cutting entitlement spending with anemic domestic growth is not a good idea. Serious fiscal investment needs to occur to get people working. Civilian Conservation Corps and renewable energy infrastructure.

    Military spending must be cut. The Heritage Foundation's numbers are flawed. The real military budget is closer to 47% of GDP. This is not productive spending.

    http://bit.ly/QmbtZs
    Nov 18 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Waiting For The Bounce [View article]
    True, but there is political risk. Companies get nationalized. The state is less predictable in the developing world.
    Nov 17 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Inflation Means To You: Inside The Consumer Price Index [View article]
    These fools think wages adjust along with inflation. The reality is that they're repressed by state policies that systematically weaken labor. Real wages have been stagnant since the 1970s... when does Bernanke think they will adjust upward? He shouldn't hold his breath...
    Nov 17 11:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nowhere To Run: The Correlation Bubble [View article]
    Yes, except the correlation of tangible to financial assets disappears (or goes negative) in a crisis. For instance, silver trades as a risk-on commodity now. But when nations start defaulting, sellers of unsafe sovereigns need a place to hide and the correlation shifts abruptly. That is why statistics without macroeconomic understanding only works in the short-term.
    Oct 29 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From 5 Years Of Economic Crisis [View article]
    That figures constitutes the notional value of mostly interest rate swaps between banks. These banks are over-levered and keep doubling down to service the debts owed to one another. They have been taking big risks and are not entitled to a bailout at the expense of currency strength.
    Oct 11 11:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From 5 Years Of Economic Crisis [View article]
    1) This article contributes little new information to the conversation.

    2) The author glosses over alternative scenarios. It's not a matter of life or death, black and white, 1 or 0; instead of giving $12.3T to investment banks with no strings attached, the Fed could have paid off homeowners' debts (or written them down substantially) bailing out both the banks and the people (two birds with one stone). This was not done, because banks like Goldman had big short bets that wouldn't have worked out if the Fed actually solved the problem.

    3) Comparing the U.S. to the GIIPS nations on the basis of one variable is facile and naive. Yes, austerity in Europe is worse than in the U.S. (for now); but they have a sovereign debt crisis; we had a housing bubble and liquidity crisis. GIIPS economies are hugely dependent upon government spending compared to the U.S., etc. There are many other factors to control for.

    However, I agree with the author's sentiment that the IMF's policy was hugely detrimental. However, it is not an accident:

    The IMF is the enforcement arm of Western banking interests; they forcibly restructure economies and collect on usurious loans. When these loans are not paid to their liking, the IMF appropriates public assets at a discount and sells them off. This is happening in Greece; the lottery, the water system, even the islands are being parceled out. This is extortion--plain and simple.

    The IMF has not come after the U.S. because America dominates the fund's politics. International bankers have no national allegiance, though, and will soon cannibalize U.S. assets (as China has been doing for years).

    Austerity that diminishes the economic power of the people must be resisted (or face a Greek-scenario). Austerity with regard to state taxation and spending, like wars, subsidies and graft, must be cut.

    In any case, no amount of austerity could solve the debt crises without evaporating the money supply and ushering in economic depression. The only viable solution, to echo the likes of Steve Keen and David Graeber, is mass debt forgiveness. Restructuring and jubilees must take place or else the world will continue teetering on the brink of collapse. It is unlikely to happen without a fight, though, because banks stand to loose the most if they must write down their debts.
    Oct 11 02:26 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nowhere To Run: The Correlation Bubble [View article]
    You may indeed. Financial Sense is an excellent resource and I'm happy to contribute.
    Oct 4 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 14 Signs That The World Economy Is Getting Weaker [View article]
    And yet the S&P is just off all-time highs. The market is broken.

    This is important information, please keep us updated.
    Oct 3 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nowhere To Run: The Correlation Bubble [View article]
    Invest at your own risk, but I typically advise clients to be overweight precious metals, safe sovereigns, agricultural land, and select equities. If you are concerned about a full-blown crisis, tangible assets are the only prudent stores of value (no counter-party risk). My other articles outline the case for the aforementioned assets in greater detail. Take care.
    Oct 3 03:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Reviews: 'Economics After The Crisis' And 'Money And Sustainability' [View article]
    We need decentralized credit systems desperately.

    Check out Graeber's "Debt: The First 5,000 Years."
    Sep 12 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Adjusted Portfolio For Retirement [View article]
    Interesting method, the only caveat is that value-at-risk models are based on expected variance and rarely work when most needed: during a crisis.
    In a crunch, correlations move toward 1.

    Market events do not actually follow a normal distribution, they're clustered (as Mandelbrot described).

    Also, tail risks are not accounted for.

    Any VaR model can be massaged to more accurately model these two factors, but we must not be overconfident in the model.

    Here's a great elaboration of these points:
    http://bit.ly/Ri9Rxu
    Aug 24 05:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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