Stock price: p778 ($12.50 USD)

Conclusion: Nestle’s (NSRGY.PK) announcement and Buffett’s warning lead us to reiterate that Cadbury (CDSCF.PK) looks fully priced.

Stock price: $64.42

Conclusion: Nike (NKE) is showing good resistance which is largely priced in. The stock looks fairly priced based on our valuation range of $65-$70 per share.

Conclusion: We feel that the new long term targets (+5-7% sales pa, 16-18% margin by 2013) should be difficult to achieve. We reiterate our view that the stock looks fully priced.

Organic revenue growth of 5-7% per annum, compares with 6.3% achieved between 2004 and 2008, which looks feasible. However, mix and pricing accounted for more than two thirds of that growth in the recent period. Going forward, Cadbury will have to rely more on volume at a time when consumers are more reluctant to pay a premium for staples. As a result, we think that the high end of the range looks very optimistic in the absence of significant pricing action. We are also surprised to see Cadbury raising its sales growth target while other food companies confirm lackluster demand in developed markets.

Stock price: DK392 ($77.66)

Conclusion: Growth in 2010 will be held back by excise increases in Russia. Carlsberg (CGBWF.PK) looks fully priced based on our valuation range of DK390-DK420.

Stock price: €38 ($57.34)

Conclusion: The stock looks fairly valued based on our valuation range of €38-€42 per share. Uncertainty regarding Reebok should prevent short term re-rating. We prefer to invest in Puma (PMMAF.PK) which trades at a similar 15x P/E multiple based on 2010 estimates.

Laurent Perrier (LPRRF.PK) Stock Price: €53.5 ($80.78 USD)

Conclusion: Margin could remain under pressure due to negative mix impact in champagne. We think the stock is fully priced based on 2010 earnings outlook.

Stock price: 573p ($943.82)

Conclusion: Despite a negative geographic mix, Burberry is resisting quite well. We expect a return to low double digit growth in EPS in F11. Burberry trades at 17.2x cal P/E, based on 2010 estimates, in line with the sector. Our DCF suggests some upside, but we see more interesting opportunities elsewhere, notably PPR.

Stock price: $43.9

Conclusion: Tiffany has been more resilient than we thought thanks to efficient cost control, tight cash management and improved forex. The stock trades at a premium to the sector, which seems justified by its long term growth potential. Despite low visibility in the US and in Japan, we raised our valuation range to $45-47 per share.

H1 results for Remy Cointreau (REMYF.PK): Sales down 1% reported to €362m ($546m), down 7% organic. Adjusted EBIT up 4.8% reported, 2% organic. Guidance: Slight organic growth in operating profit for the full year.

Surprisingly good numbers at first sight.
Adjusted Earnings before tax increased by 18% to €54.5m ($82.3m), owing to +100bp gain in EBIT margin (18.1%) and lower “other financial costs”.
Margins improved thanks to the liqueurs division and the swing to profit generated by the partner brands.

Stock price: p1786 (US$2968)

Conclusion: We think that SAB Miller’s (SBMRY.PK) exposure to emerging markets and a possible deal with Femsa (FMXUF.PK) are largely priced in. We revise our valuation range to p1800-p1900 (US$2991-3157) following the announcement of a new restructuring program.

Stock price: p800.5 (US$1319)

Conclusion: We think a potential Hershey (HSY) bid or a Hershey-Ferrero alliance might prompt Kraft (KFT) to increase its offer but it is unlikely to exceed p860 (US$1417) per share or $20bn (the top end of our estimated valuation range).

Stock price: €82.2 ($117.75)
Conclusion: Recent stock weakness offers a good entry point. The discount to luxury peers has widened to 30%. Notwithstanding the dilution related to CFAO listing, we expect further portfolio restructuring.

CFAO launches its IPO - Entreprise value range €1750-2050m

Stock price: €34 ($51.09)
Conclusion: Favorable geographic mix coupled with superior execution. We raise our valuation range to €39-41 per share.

9 months: revenue growth +1.8% organic (+81% reported to $30bn), beer volume down 1.4% , EBITDA growth +18% organic (+67% reported). Guidance: EBITDA growth Q4 in line with Q3 (+12% organic).

Stock price: €231 (US$345)

Conclusion: Improved visibility on the bottom line, coupled with a potential bid from PPR (PPRUF.PK), Puma’s (PMMAF.PK) main shareholder, should propel further upside. We estimate the fair price of Puma within a valuation range of €260-275 (US$389-411), excluding a bid premium.

Stock price: €69.5 ($103.11)
Conclusion: Future growth in developed markets remains an issue. Current stock price looks full (P/E 21x 2009 and 19.6x 2010), in line with our DCF based valuation estimate.

Q3 sales: Sales up 0.8% like for like (-0.7% reported), adjusted for SAP, sales almost flat. 9 months down 1.9% like for like, up 0.7% reported to €13bn.

Stock price: €20.2 ($29.8)
Conclusion: Top line slowing down at a time when peers are accelerating. Never ending restructuring. Better opportunities elsewhere (cf our Nestle (NSRGY.PK) comment) based on our estimated fair value range of €19-21 ($28-31) per share.

Q3 results: Sales down 2% reported (-1% 9m to €30.1bn), up 3.4% like for like (+4.1% 9m). Adjusted EPS up 5% in Q3 (-6% 9m), down 34% reported. Guidance 2009: “on track to restore volume growth while protecting margins and cash flow for the year”.

Stock price: €30.4 ($44.8)
Conclusion: Looking for further upside. We confirm our valuation range of €35-40 ($52-59) per share in light of Q3 trading update.

Q3 trading update: sales down 3.9% to €4bn, almost flat like for like (-0.4%), adjusted EBIT up double digit. Guidance 2009 raised from high single digit organic net profit growth to low double digit growth.

In spite of upgraded guidance for Reckitt Benckiser Group (RBGPF.PK), we stick to our valuation range of £32-33 ($52.2-$53.8) per share. The 15% return we were looking for is now behind us and we feel that the stock looks fairly priced. Further re-rating would require improved visibility in household products.

Nine months: sales up 20% reported (£5.7billion or $9.3 bn), up 7% like for like. Net earnings up 29% reported, up 13% like for like. Guidance raised for 2009: revenue growth +6-7% like for like, +12-13% adjusted net income, +22-23% at actual exchange.