Comments on Veryan Allen's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/veryan-allen/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/165640-asset-allocation-doesn-t-do-the-job?source=feed#comment-714282 714282 I agree with the comment that we all are asset allocators, its just > a question of if you have the right mix. If you own a house, stocks, > cash, and are near social security then you have stock, bond, real > estate, and currency exposure. Commodities would round out the mix.]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 18:20:12 -0400
I agree, we all are asset allocators

The article, on the the other hand was referring to an asset allocation MODEL. That is a diversified mix of asset classes.



On Oct 09 07:53 PM E.D. Hart wrote:

> I agree with the comment that we all are asset allocators, its just
> a question of if you have the right mix. If you own a house, stocks,
> cash, and are near social security then you have stock, bond, real
> estate, and currency exposure. Commodities would round out the mix.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165640-asset-allocation-doesn-t-do-the-job?source=feed#comment-711066 711066 Fri, 09 Oct 2009 19:53:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/165640-asset-allocation-doesn-t-do-the-job?source=feed#comment-710937 710937 Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:10:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/165640-asset-allocation-doesn-t-do-the-job?source=feed#comment-710795 710795 Fri, 09 Oct 2009 15:09:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/165640-asset-allocation-doesn-t-do-the-job?source=feed#comment-710128 710128 Fri, 09 Oct 2009 08:58:43 -0400
Good point! I agree that Real estate is sometimes referred to as an alternative investment.

It is not an alternative investment. It is an old school investment.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165640-asset-allocation-doesn-t-do-the-job?source=feed#comment-710127 710127 Fri, 09 Oct 2009 08:57:53 -0400
Hedge? And do you trust your counterparties? Hedging is expensive and too heavily relied on. It is not a panacea. Hedging strategies can and do fall part - with disastrous consequences.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165640-asset-allocation-doesn-t-do-the-job?source=feed#comment-710119 710119 Fri, 09 Oct 2009 08:55:14 -0400
This is not the fault of Asset Allocation. This is the possible failure of the endowment model. And, even then, the endowment model hasn't been tested long enough to show it has failed.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-704641 704641 Tue, 06 Oct 2009 03:37:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-704548 704548 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 22:41:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-704484 704484 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 21:18:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-704324 704324 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:19:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-704295 704295 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 18:55:47 -0400 in order to have had any beneficial involvement with hedge funds
during this cycle. And of course one must have some medium
for knowing which hedge funds were going to be lucrative and
which ones were not and most people either lack the skill and or
or patience you apparently possess, if in fact you experienced the success you've claimed.

Erick Tippett
Chicago, Illinois]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-704219 704219 Actually 2 good articles in one day although the moronic 'top 10' > commentors on this site have ruined it with their plentiful facts > and figures on why we should go down. Too bad none of them have a > clue on how to make money.]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 18:01:13 -0400
First, my wife is pear-shaped...8 3/4 mos. pregnant! Her belly that has taken 9 months to grow will radically change some time in the next week or so. Pear-shaped world indeed.

Second: TA - you gotta lay a pearl of wisdom on us after a blast like that. Thanks in advance for your wisdom.


On Oct 05 11:58 AM TA wrote:

> Actually 2 good articles in one day although the moronic 'top 10'
> commentors on this site have ruined it with their plentiful facts
> and figures on why we should go down. Too bad none of them have a
> clue on how to make money.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-703775 703775 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 11:58:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-703551 703551 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 09:35:51 -0400
Buy and hold alone does not work, and day and short term trading, unless using leverage, is problematic due to costs: but trading a trend with momentum can last from a day to a long time and give good profits over any period. One important factor here is not to worry too much about the first and last few percent of the run: these are useful in signaling and confirming trend direction changes. Buy after the trend has established itself, and sell after the reversal has shown itself. The loss in so doing will be less than the loss caused by buying in and selling out too soon.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-703514 703514 Chap: > > I think I agree with your final chapter. Although at some point > the GDP growth of Ancient Rome transitioned to the GDP collapse of > 1,000 years of Dark Ages....I don't think we are there yet, but we > will be some day. That's a pear shape we can't forget.]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 09:19:30 -0400
The story was probably different for a tiny elite in Rome itself. But that's what you get for over spending on your military.

On Oct 05 07:46 AM Michael Clark wrote:

> Chap:
>
> I think I agree with your final chapter. Although at some point
> the GDP growth of Ancient Rome transitioned to the GDP collapse of
> 1,000 years of Dark Ages....I don't think we are there yet, but we
> will be some day. That's a pear shape we can't forget.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-703511 703511 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 09:18:28 -0400 "how the finance gurus get risk all wrong" by mandelbrot & taleb.
money.cnn.com/magazine...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-703481 703481 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 08:57:59 -0400
What has served many well in this environment is discarding the tired and untrue hypothesis of EMH, and buying or selling into the trends. Those who did so did not take massive losses on the plunge, and have benefitted from the rally.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-703373 703373 Unfortunately not every hedge fund is a good hedge fund. Far from > it. It is also hard to tell the bad from the good. Historical performance > doesn't show you. Neither does professional experience. Many money > managers invested with Bernie Madoff. He was not the only fraud waiting > to be exposed and certainly not the only fund to go bust. Investing > in these funds is a bit like buying a CDO. How much do you really > know about how it generates returns? Closing your eyes and dreaming > is not a good way to invest. Don't trust a AAA rating or a fee earning > middle man. Particularly when you're paying 2 and 20 for the privilege. > > > Far better to do it yourself. There are some simple things that you > can do which will give you the majority of the benefit. Pick your > own style, but learning from, say, the Mebane Faber approach is not > a bad starting point. > > If you don't want to do it yourself then have faith in buy and hold. > The world is only pear shaped in the very long term. In 50 years > time US and global GDP will be higher than they are today. Stocks > will have roughly risen in line. Wages and houses will have roughly > risen in line. Just avoid the classic mistakes of buying high/selling > low and paying high fees - particularly the 2 and 20 for hedge funds.]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 07:46:30 -0400
I think I agree with your final chapter. Although at some point the GDP growth of Ancient Rome transitioned to the GDP collapse of 1,000 years of Dark Ages....I don't think we are there yet, but we will be some day. That's a pear shape we can't forget.


On Oct 05 06:07 AM chap08 wrote:

> Unfortunately not every hedge fund is a good hedge fund. Far from
> it. It is also hard to tell the bad from the good. Historical performance
> doesn't show you. Neither does professional experience. Many money
> managers invested with Bernie Madoff. He was not the only fraud waiting
> to be exposed and certainly not the only fund to go bust. Investing
> in these funds is a bit like buying a CDO. How much do you really
> know about how it generates returns? Closing your eyes and dreaming
> is not a good way to invest. Don't trust a AAA rating or a fee earning
> middle man. Particularly when you're paying 2 and 20 for the privilege.
>
>
> Far better to do it yourself. There are some simple things that you
> can do which will give you the majority of the benefit. Pick your
> own style, but learning from, say, the Mebane Faber approach is not
> a bad starting point.
>
> If you don't want to do it yourself then have faith in buy and hold.
> The world is only pear shaped in the very long term. In 50 years
> time US and global GDP will be higher than they are today. Stocks
> will have roughly risen in line. Wages and houses will have roughly
> risen in line. Just avoid the classic mistakes of buying high/selling
> low and paying high fees - particularly the 2 and 20 for hedge funds.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-703357 703357 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 07:30:27 -0400
seekingalpha.com/insta...

What looks like a pear from above looks like a cherry from below.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-703319 703319 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 06:07:19 -0400
Far better to do it yourself. There are some simple things that you can do which will give you the majority of the benefit. Pick your own style, but learning from, say, the Mebane Faber approach is not a bad starting point.

If you don't want to do it yourself then have faith in buy and hold. The world is only pear shaped in the very long term. In 50 years time US and global GDP will be higher than they are today. Stocks will have roughly risen in line. Wages and houses will have roughly risen in line. Just avoid the classic mistakes of buying high/selling low and paying high fees - particularly the 2 and 20 for hedge funds.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-703292 703292 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 05:02:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-703290 703290 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 05:02:12 -0400
Likewise the trend in Dec 09 to Feb 2009 was also a liar.

The trend might be your friend is you make friends quickly. If you give your trust slowly, you are likely to be burned in these markets.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-703265 703265 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 04:19:05 -0400
Veryan Allen, you should be an options trader. Once you understand skew and the value of locking short term gains and going delta neutral to avoid steep losses you have mastered what most "financial experts" cease to ever get through their thick skulls. There is no free lunch. Just hard work.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164742-the-trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends?source=feed#comment-703264 703264 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 04:18:46 -0400
"All trends end. Strange how those who argue trend-following hedge funds have no value continue to advocate long only equity because of an upward trend that can supposedly be extrapolated far into the future. Their insouciant belief in past being prologue is dangerous for investors. The volatility of recent years has shown pear-shaped times provide the best risk management stress test. As we saw with stock, credit and commodity markets recently, the more long-lasting the trend, the more violent the end. The trend is your friend until it ends.

"The potential return from stocks fails to compensate for their notorious risk. Most economists and "passive" index fund groupies sell a rosy view of a future that we can all apparently look forward to...eventually. I hope they are right but consistent capital growth requires mitigating the downside. Few investors can afford to ignore drawdowns or volatility. Follow the trend? Into the abyss? Many equities drop to zero but none has ever gone to infinity. Portfolios need to be structured for amy possibility including a dystopian long term.
.................
"Fiduciary duty requires portfolio construction for optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Bear markets or bull markets are irrelevant in robust strategy allocation.

"Since most phenomena are non-linear it stands to reason that linear equations are of limited use.
................
"Unfortunately the crowd still uses normal assumptions which is fine until things cease to be normal. Pear-shaped situations require pear-shaped analysis.
............
"If the largest and smallest physical systems are pear-shaped, it would seem possible that financial processes could also exhibit a similar form."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112568-lessons-from-the-madoff-scandal-deciding-which-funds-are-worth-an-investment?source=feed#comment-341643 341643 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 14:04:50 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112568-lessons-from-the-madoff-scandal-deciding-which-funds-are-worth-an-investment?source=feed#comment-341452 341452 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 11:06:48 -0500
Berkshire Hathaway is a Hedge Fund?--does the author have any clue about the company's business model and structure?

Buffett has made a rookie error?--Warren's sale of the long term index puts is nothing more than an insurance policy written with an adequate premium. Buffett has been in the insurance business for over 35 years and there is probably no one else who understands the business better than he does. To a rookie, everyone looks like as rookie.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112568-lessons-from-the-madoff-scandal-deciding-which-funds-are-worth-an-investment?source=feed#comment-341389 341389 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 10:15:58 -0500 What, so they can have BOTH their income AND their investments in the same place??? How smart is that???]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112568-lessons-from-the-madoff-scandal-deciding-which-funds-are-worth-an-investment?source=feed#comment-341364 341364 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 09:53:30 -0500 The author of this article is the best salesman of them all.

Since he works in the industry, he completely neglects to mention that hedge fund fees completely wipe out any "edge" one investment strategy has over another -- not to mention the double fees paid if investing in a fund of funds are an idiotic complete waste of money.

Sure, there's always the one 90% up fund when everything else is way down, as the author of this article mentions, but people win lotteries every day too. Does that mean that diversifying by purchasing lottery tickets in every state is a good idea too?

Diversification is important, but just as important is investing in NO FEE or VERY LOW FEE investment products like those sold by Vanguard and many other big fund companies.

I'm sick and tired of all the lies and hype that guys like this writer force feed down our throats every chance they get.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112568-lessons-from-the-madoff-scandal-deciding-which-funds-are-worth-an-investment?source=feed#comment-341352 341352 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 09:38:32 -0500