Seeking Alpha

Victor Cheng

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  • Positive Sentiment In Apple Gives Buy Signal Before Earnings Release [View article]
    I initiated a position at the open @ $505. Let's see if it will hold $500 this week...
    Jan 28 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Positive Sentiment In Apple Gives Buy Signal Before Earnings Release [View article]
    Looks like AAPL will only cost $500 tomorrow. I'm getting ready to load the truck. Hmmm...stocks or calls???
    Jan 27 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Positive Sentiment In Apple Gives Buy Signal Before Earnings Release [View article]
    Hi Greg,

    You are right. You would need to employ more of a "buy/short" strategy rather than the typical "buy/sell". There are definitely different ways to interpret the data depending on how one categorizes a successful trade.

    As for your son-in-law, I would just give him time. Trading options is a tricky business. I have some options in MU that are swinging for the fence, but usually I just sell covered calls to get a steady income stream and as insurance for a market downturn. I didn't really get interested in options myself until I finally realized how powerful they are. One also needs to have the stomach for high valitility/beta in order to trade options.
    Jan 26 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Positive Sentiment In Apple Gives Buy Signal Before Earnings Release [View article]
    Agreed. If you go back to the original analysis, you can see that I acknowledged the small sample size problem and also pointed out the fact that SA authors' sentiments are skewed to the buy side.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 25 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Positive Sentiment In Apple Gives Buy Signal Before Earnings Release [View article]
    Very keen observation, Byron! Take the data for what it's worth: tools of predictions. Nothing is set in stone and there are definitely different ways to interpret them. How much time should I have given each signal before assigning a "correct" or "wrong prediction? 1 month? 3 months? Until the next signal? Until the signal reverses?

    Assuming that Apple can take advantage of the growth opportunities, that margins don't fall off a cliff, and Apple can continue to release innovative products every few years, the company is a good long term investment. In any case, Monday afterhours and Tuesday will be very interesting...
    Jan 25 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Positive Sentiment In Apple Gives Buy Signal Before Earnings Release [View article]
    I agree Michael. Broad market currents will most likely dictate AAPL next week even if technicals say otherwise and even if earnings and guidance are fantastic. If we see $500, I'll be a strong buyer.
    Jan 25 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seeking Alpha Authors Biased When It Comes To Apple? [View article]
    A follow-up article that I wrote but was declined by SA to publish.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 19 11:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Remains A Good Short [View article]
    Michael,

    I think you are right in thinking that Apple will eventually lose market share (specifically to MSFT/NOK and chinese vendors), but it won't happen overnight. There is still a massive number of people who can't get away from their iPhones, iPads, macs, and the apps selection available. I don't think the downturn in APPL will materialize until a new disruptive technology comes along...what that is, I don't know yet. But, we have seen the fall of Nokia, Motorola and Blackberry to know that kings do get dethroned. When Apple gets dethroned, it will be a long and painful decline. I would prefer to short it during that prolonged decline rather than be a brave soul like yourself and try to pick the inflection point. Good luck with your short.
    Jan 10 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seeking Alpha Authors Biased When It Comes To Apple? [View article]
    I say that it's as good of an indicator as any other technical indicator because I don't use TA to buy/sell stocks. People have different perspectives on technical analysis. I've stated this in another comment but I'll say it again here: TA works most of the time in hindsight. That's my belief.

    Having said that, I am suggesting there is a correlation (most of the time) between sentiment and price. People use twitter sentiment analysis nowadays to gauge which direction the market is going. So think of this study as a microcosm of that.

    Yes, my sample is small, and I've acknowledged in the article. But going through ~1000 articles manually was a lot of work. I don't have the time, machine power, algorithm and software to backtest all the SA articles against historical prices for the entire equity universe...
    Dec 13 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seeking Alpha Authors Biased When It Comes To Apple? [View article]
    Although I didn't mention it in this article, I did bring up confirmation bias in my analysis on TSLA. This was one of the reasons I started looking into doing this kind of analysis.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 13 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seeking Alpha Authors Biased When It Comes To Apple? [View article]
    My feeling on TA: it's right most of the time in hindsight.
    Dec 13 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seeking Alpha Authors Biased When It Comes To Apple? [View article]
    Douglas,

    Yes, it takes courage to publish short articles! I didn't know this at the time, but I published my first sell side article on BBRY and I was torn apart by the longs in the comments section. Well, don't say I didn't try to warn them. Same story with LULU.
    Dec 13 03:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seeking Alpha Authors Biased When It Comes To Apple? [View article]
    I would guesstimate around 15 hours of solid work. However, now that I have a good foundation, I will be able to do updates on this in a much shorter time period.
    Dec 13 03:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seeking Alpha Authors Biased When It Comes To Apple? [View article]
    I start by reading the title, intro, and concluding paragraphs. Usually, those are pretty good indications of sentiments. If it's a more technical or mathematical article, I scanned it for price targets and compared that to the share price on the publication date. For authors who played straddle options or were long the shares but sold covered calls, I assigned that as a neutral rating. There were articles that purely reported on news and rumors, and I applied a 0 score for those (same as a hold recommendation) even if the author was long. I tried to be as objective as I could without compromising the article sentiment by knowing the author position. I think there was only 1 article wherein the author was long but planned to sell.
    Dec 13 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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