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Vikram Saxena

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  • Natural Gas ETFs: Not a Good Investment [View article]

    1) GAZ was trading without any premium to NAV till they too decided not to issue new shares. Last Thursday (8/20) the news leaked and since then it has built up a healthy premium to NAV which lead to the run its price. The spread between NGX9 and NGV9 has also increased; it is showing up in a percentage change plot of GAZ.IV versus UNG.IV

    2) UNG does not lose value just because of the roll. The total value does not change simply because they now own smaller number of contracts at a higher price. However UNG does not benefit from the higher price of the new contract because of negative roll yield. The spread between the two contracts (plot NGV9 - NGU9) widens just prior to the roll date, further short-changing UNG holders.
    Aug 28, 2009. 12:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zero Hedge's Bloomberg Podcast: Why Did Bloomberg Delete It? [View article]
    I read somewhere that the total profit from the insider trading for which Daniel Ivandjiiski was debarred by FINRA was around $800-$900. Yes, you read it right. He was debarred for an amount that was less than a thousand dollars. There are people on Wall Street who spend that much on a single meal.

    ZeroHedge is taking on the titans of the financial industry and I can completely understand their need for anonymity. However, ZH should not only ensure that their claims are properly substantiated (they typically are), but also that the conclusions reached do not need a stretch of imagination (which they often do).

    Though I read ZeroHedge to get a better picture, you can not trade based on what they write.
    Aug 24, 2009. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the U.S. Dollar the Fed's Next Weapon? [View article]
    Whatever the US will do, Euro-zone will have to do. They will just take their own sweet time to do it. The Western world is caught up in a cycle of competitive devaluation so any gains in the Euro are going to be fleeting.

    The currencies of interest should be the commodity currencies (NOK, AUD, CAD, BRL, NZD, even the RUB), not the EUR.
    Jul 21, 2009. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Correction Over? [View article]
    You can follow my intra-day tweets for setups on stocks I trade:

    Use tweetdeck to filter out relevant tickers.

    On May 13 09:56 AM Techtrader10 wrote:

    > You might be someone I want to follow as I day trade Apple usually
    > on the short side. How do you find the time to follow all the various
    > indicators you mentioned? And do you really find all the index information
    > of any real value?
    May 13, 2009. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uneasy Silence About Regional Banks [View article]
    What I wanted to highlight was the complete black out about the regionals. Given Team Obama's media savvy, I would like to see some proof before I jump in.

    The note about preferred is from the WSJ article. I am including the relevant excerpts below.
    Quote WSJ:
    "In addition, it isn't clear what happens to hobbled regional banks that could have a hard time finding extra capital. Many are facing a deluge of bad loans to finance residential and commercial properties.

    Regions, based in Birmingham, Ala., is among a handful of the tested banks without any privately held preferred shares that it could convert into common stock to boost its capital buffer, according to Deutsche Bank. That leaves it with a narrow range of options beyond turning to the government for aid."

    On May 07 11:02 AM greedcanbgood wrote:

    > "Many of these banks, especially Regions, do not have a large cushion
    > of preferred capital to convert to common."
    > Your analysis is incomplete unless you provide details. Otherwise,
    > the reader is led to believe that all your regional listed are in
    > the same boat and clearly, they are not.
    May 7, 2009. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uneasy Silence About Regional Banks [View article]
    1. I am sorry for the spelling error. This was done very late last night and Seeking Alpha's editor does not have a spell-check (or allow the built in checker of Chrome to highlight spelling mistakes).

    2. Before the wireless revolution what you call the obscure was the more common idiomatic use of the word

    On May 07 10:36 AM Kenny Sullivan wrote:

    > Ever hear of spell check? Poor spelling, poor grammar and an obscure,
    > if not wrong, use of of the word tether are unprofessional. I began
    > looking for errors in the article, rather than looking for content.
    > Kenny Sullivan
    May 7, 2009. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Caveats on Trading Ultra ETFs on Big Move Days [View article]

    What I wanted to highlight was that on trend days with large moves, the 3x ETFs are not to be bought in anticipation of a reversal. Any continuation of the move results in significantly large percentage losses which can not be made up by a reversal the next day in the underlying index to the original purchase point. These distortion exist everyday but their amplitude gets magnified on a day when the underlying index makes a 15% move, cutting the value of the opposing 3x ETF by 45%. A trader who started buying FAZ towards the close of Monday had to endure a much larger percentage loss in his capital for every equivalent move in the index, To profit from the the reversal,the index will have to make a much larger move to break even. on Tueasday.
    Mar 25, 2009. 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell the Dollar, Buy the Euro? Think Again. [View article]
    Mistrofan: The issues are:

    i) The size of the debt compared to the total size of the economies both of the debtor nations and the bond holders; think Iceland.

    ii) Currency Issue: A large amount of the debt is issued in Euros and not in local currencies. Investments in Eastern Europe were made in the hope that it will be the China for the Europe. With the slowdown, the exports have dried up, and the currencies have fallen. As a result not only have the assets underlying the debt have become less (or even non producing) but their real ability to service a debt in Euros has gone down.

    iii) Legacy Issues: Some of the Eastern European countries also suffer from the challenge of their communist/socialist past. For example Hungary has a huge pension obligation which lies at the heart of its problem.
    Mar 25, 2009. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell the Dollar, Buy the Euro? Think Again. [View article]
    Some more thoughts:

    1. I also wanted to add the Norwegian Krone (NOK) as one of the key currency to go long against the Euro. The Krone has a strong commodity link and the Norwegian economy is one of the best when it comes to fiscal discipline.

    2. Among the long currencies I will under-weigh the Canadian Dollar with relation to the AUD, NZD and the NOK. The Canadian economy is too closely linked to the US, a correlation I would like to reduce in this trade.
    Mar 23, 2009. 01:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It [View article]
    There is a big difference between Pension Fund Assets going to zero (or negative) and the over-funding going to negative. With stock prices cut in half in six months it is not a surprise that the excess in Pension Funds is no longer available.

    What would have really helped is an analysis of how the damage to balance sheet might force Boeing to raise capital at significantly depressed equity price levels. Further is there any indication that Boeing's ability to raise debt is impaired (CDS spreads widening, ratings falling etc.)?
    Feb 28, 2009. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Distressing Details of the UltraShorts [View article]
    In a non-trending market with a lot of ups and downs, both the long and short Ultra funds will not return 2x the result of the underlying. This is a simple mathematical result and not some voodoo; the result of these funds resetting their relationship with the underlying every day. These funds are best used as trading vehicles for swing trading; zig-zag direction will affect their results.
    Jan 24, 2009. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ICICI Bank: Bellwether Emerging Market Short [View article]

    Have you looked at the food and energy futures lately, or the level of inflation in India lately? Your predictions of the demise of the Indian Middle Class are greatly exaggerated. In spite of all the talk of outsourcing in the West, India is primarily an organic growth story; and that story will not change till the hundred of millions of poor Indians aspire to reach a standard of living close to the lower middle class. Short term asset price bubbles will occur, but in India they are much better supported both by income and demographics.
    Dec 20, 2008. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Depression Not Imminent, But Inevitable [View article]
    The author's basic premise is that the lack of insurance providers will significantly limit business as usual in the more riskier markets/projects where CDS were needed to hedge risk. To me this is another way of saying that investors will be a lot more prudent in their investments and do their own due diligence instead of just buying CDS to hedge a part of the risk.

    What would really help is an estimate of the size of CDS secured projects with relations to the total number of projects. Is that size significant enough to cause a depression?
    Dec 20, 2008. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup: The End Draws Near [View article]
    Seems the news about the end of Citi was a bit premature. Talk about the mother of all bail-outs!
    Nov 24, 2008. 01:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Countdown of Manipulated Gold Price Running Out [View article]
    You do not need a conspiracy theories. Simple supply/demand can explain a lot.

    1. India is the largest consumer and importer of Gold.
    -Indians have been selling Gold as it made its bull run. With the INR falling against the USD the spot Gold Price in India is still quite high, and encouraging more sales.
    -Indian economy is slowing down and the stock market has been cut in half; less discretionary demand for gold.

    2. The world is in a deflationary asset mode. The hedge against inflation is not needed.

    3. The fragile banking system has been effectively nationalized with national governments providing a back-stop. The safe-haven play is over.

    4. Some talk of central banks selling Gold, partly to finance the backstop they have provided to the major banks. Many hedge funds de-leveraging and selling their gold holdings.

    5. Dollar Strength; other commodities are also down.

    6. Supply too is elastic with relation to price. With Gold prices near its highs, Gold producers have an incentive to mine more. Longer work-days, deeper mines.

    Oct 17, 2008. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment