Vikram Saxena

Is the Correction Over?

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On May 13 09:56 AM Techtrader10 wrote:

> You might be someone I want to follow as I day trade Apple usually
> on the short side. How do you find the time to follow all the various
> indicators you mentioned? And do you really find all the index information
> of any real value?

How the iPhone and Poor Management Contribute to Apple's Downfall

Most CEOs would love to be able to be in a subscription based model, with virtually guaranteed revenue going out many quarters. Many software companies, especially those selling to enterprise customers want the same. Even consumer software sellers want users to subscribe to the use of software on any annual basis. AAPL is suffering because there is a huge dark cloud hanging over consumers. At under 100, it is the steal of the year, given their huge cash balance, their unique position as a must have product, their deferred revenues and impressive supply chain which delivers a personalized iPod to your door in a few days!

iPhone in Your Business: Pondering the ROI Case

Blah-Blah: The issue is not whether BES is secure or not but that it adds another layer when none is needed. The nationwide BB blackouts clearly show that the BES infra can be a single point of failure. The security challenge is not with SSL/triple DES but with the fact that there is an external stop which the message takes that increases security risk. As Jobs put in, 'a guy in Canada can read all your emails'; the one additional level of indirection will increase the probability of a leak.

iPhone in Your Business: Pondering the ROI Case

There are very few products which sell themselves; iPhone is one of them. As someone already noted; all it takes is one C-level executive to fall in love with it and the CIOs will follow.

Another aspect is that the iPhone+activesync is Safer than the Blackberry (no intermediate server) and is less likely to go down (one less point of failure). Plus the numbe of custom mobile applications which will run the iPhone can make the business case a no-brainer.

My prediction: In 2009, 25% of smart phone replacements will be iPhones. For companies which are starting out new (very few), the number will be between 50-75% in the favor of iPhone. RIMM is going to fight back with lower device prices but since the cost of the device is a very small percentage of the total life-cycle cost (air-time dominates), it will be an uphill battle.

Apple Buybacks: Still a Bad Idea

There are very few technology companies which pay a dividend. Among the mega-caps only Intel and Microsoft pay a dividend and they have a near monopoly. Other firms which do not have such a monopoly, do not pay dividends. The reasons are obvious. Most technology companies operate in an environment where there can be significant fluctations in revenues and profits. Dividends require a secure stream which is not guaranteed for technology companies. That is why stock buybacks make more sense the management can use the cash to enhance long term shareholder value.