Vikram Saxena

China Is Now in Firm Control of U.S. Debt Markets

Food for Thought: An alternate perspective.

www.treas.gov/press/re...

These are the monthly inflows in the last quarter of 2008. The net inflows were 273.1,61.3,74.0 in Oct,Nov&Dec respectively; a total of 408.4B for Q4 2008.

www.treas.gov/press/re...
The TIC data for Jan-March 2009 showed inflows of -143.5 -91.1 23.2, a total of -211.40B for Q12009.

So over the last two quarters the net-inflow has been 197B. The number for Sep2008 was 142.7, taking the total to 339.7B since Sept08.

Were the outflow in Q109 is a readjustment after the rush to safety last Fall? Also note that the inflow went positive in March in spite of the Fed's Quantitative Easing Policy.

Global Decoupling: Distinguishing Between Economies and Markets

Thanks for your thoughts Clive (I have your book and get your daily mailings).

The frontier markets are going to be the emerging markets of the last decade. As long as you are selective about where you go, there is a strong chance of out-sized returns as these markets are discovered. Of course out-sized returns come with the risk of out-sized losses. Loose but firm stop levels, is what you definitely need with these markets.

Look at the Indian market today. If you had bought some index options last week, you might as well be ready to retire today :).


On May 18 09:43 AM morph366 wrote:

> One thing to remember about being a pioneer in a "frontier market"
> - you might end up with an arrow in your back :-)

Distressing Details of the UltraShorts

In a non-trending market with a lot of ups and downs, both the long and short Ultra funds will not return 2x the result of the underlying. This is a simple mathematical result and not some voodoo; the result of these funds resetting their relationship with the underlying every day. These funds are best used as trading vehicles for swing trading; zig-zag direction will affect their results.