TF, I wouldn't mind people with this level of responsibility discussing and arguing this behind closed doors, and probably it is good that we know that there is a discussion going on along these lines, but... the world economy hanging on every word and as any company director would agree, a board room fight in the public domain weakens the company.
However, anything that buries "Greeenspan speak" forever, is a good thing.
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
cudashark,
There are plenty of stocks which indeed are not participating in this rally, which may well be explained by the poor macro conditions. On the other hand, there are many who have been driven through the floor which have staged a significant recovery, and many others which are responding to changing conditions in their own little space which have little to do with macro conditions.
The portfolio I outlined in my latest articles has returned 7.7% in the past month or so, is comprised of this type of stock. I can't think why IDT has put on 27% and OGE 1.5% in response to "The Fed".
None of this is to say that I am at a loss as to know what to do next, But a real crash requires above all, a financial crisis and that's not going to happen in the US in the foreseeable future.
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
Sidelines$, because the impression they give by their comments is that they are all expecting a market crash or a recession or anything else which does not contain an expectation of a rising stock market.
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
Why on earth would anyone indulge in QE to bolster the stock market, then let it collapse at some later date when financial risk has abated. It seems so pointless...so given that, there is no doubt in my mind that the market will return to "normal" dynamics once QE is withdrawn, and that does not include a collapse per se.
PS, no matter what one may think of Mr Evans, escape velocity describes a situation which is unambiguously good.
BHP Billiton Could Be An Intriguing Income Investment [View article]
The troubles at BHP are just starting. A weakening AUD will add inflationary pressures to costs and it is a moot point whether this can be offset by higher revenue from reducing commodity prices. In addition, I would expect labour unrest as salaries come under pressure.
If you want yield from Aussie stocks, stick to banks and airports.
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
Charting Down Under: The Australia All Ordinaries Index [View article]
"the 2007 peak, a bubble".
In 2007 every man and his dog was aware that iron ore, coal and natural gas were in high demand and therefore companies producing these were making money hand over fist, emerging producers were probably going to make money hand over fist, engineering companies supplying material and services were making money hand over fist and the labour involved in mining and engineering were spending money hand over fist.
Bubble implies something unreal, but in Australia in 2007, it was very real. I know people don't really believe it, but in 2000, my only ride in a Mercedes SUV was with a pretty successful stockbroker. By 2007, this same car was a second car to the wife of a tradesman.
I will concede that it is probably going to change in the near future.
Australian Rate Cut Creates Buying Opportunity In FXA [View article]
Besides declining demand for commodities, the other driver of mining slowdown is the fact that capital costs for new projects are out of control, and the major miners are cancelling new projects and looking to reduce operating costs.
I can't add to the analysis about where the AUD may trade, but if it declines from here there is a real inflation risk, and if it doesn't there is an unemployment risk and both results will prompt intervention to balance the risks.
My reference is more to the core of what High Beta should be, and that is in an up market High Beta implies out-performance. However there are protracted periods in an up-market where SPHB does not outperform, so it then it leads to questions as to why this is so.
Frankly, one conclusion I draw is that many labels used to identify investing strategies are flawed. How to use the product profitably is a matter to be determined, possibly as you suggest.
I looked at this quickly awhile back and thought that SPHB needs timing skill. Even in an upmarket, SPLV can outperform SPHB except at the very start of the uptrend.
For what its worth, I recall when DOW went through 4000. Pundits were pulling their hair out with fear. The reason given then was the flood of Mexican money which, when it stopped, would result in a DOW collapse. Same story when we lived in Vancouver...house prices going through the roof because of Hong Kong money fleeing the colony...when that stopped, watch out below.
It is still important to find the true causal link isn't it!
Why Australian Equity Market Is Prone To Violent Corrections [View article]
The four biggest banks and the worlds largest resource company...bit hard to come up with a diversified portfolio out of the stocks mentioned??? and avoid exposure to China!!!
A Bubble In 'Safety' Driven By Bond Funds? [View article]
The graph of JNJ in particular has that horrifying "parabolic" shape which seems to a common precursor to sudden crash behaviour. I still think there is an unexplained puzzle here. If prices are being driven by a desire for yield, and if these are "strong hands" due to no alternative (and none on the horizon), and if these companies are stable lowly geared businesses with low volatility, then what exactly is going to make things reverse.
To be clear, I can understand some speculative stock making people nervous, but why should JNJ make people nervous given that its where it is because the dividend is acceptable.
And Then There Is Bernanke [View article]
However, anything that buries "Greeenspan speak" forever, is a good thing.
And Then There Is Bernanke [View article]
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
There are plenty of stocks which indeed are not participating in this rally, which may well be explained by the poor macro conditions. On the other hand, there are many who have been driven through the floor which have staged a significant recovery, and many others which are responding to changing conditions in their own little space which have little to do with macro conditions.
The portfolio I outlined in my latest articles has returned 7.7% in the past month or so, is comprised of this type of stock. I can't think why IDT has put on 27% and OGE 1.5% in response to "The Fed".
None of this is to say that I am at a loss as to know what to do next, But a real crash requires above all, a financial crisis and that's not going to happen in the US in the foreseeable future.
Chicago Fed: Manufacturing Is Softening [View article]
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
Note the question mark.
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
PS, no matter what one may think of Mr Evans, escape velocity describes a situation which is unambiguously good.
BHP Billiton Could Be An Intriguing Income Investment [View article]
If you want yield from Aussie stocks, stick to banks and airports.
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
Charting Down Under: The Australia All Ordinaries Index [View article]
In 2007 every man and his dog was aware that iron ore, coal and natural gas were in high demand and therefore companies producing these were making money hand over fist, emerging producers were probably going to make money hand over fist, engineering companies supplying material and services were making money hand over fist and the labour involved in mining and engineering were spending money hand over fist.
Bubble implies something unreal, but in Australia in 2007, it was very real. I know people don't really believe it, but in 2000, my only ride in a Mercedes SUV was with a pretty successful stockbroker. By 2007, this same car was a second car to the wife of a tradesman.
I will concede that it is probably going to change in the near future.
Australian Rate Cut Creates Buying Opportunity In FXA [View article]
I can't add to the analysis about where the AUD may trade, but if it declines from here there is a real inflation risk, and if it doesn't there is an unemployment risk and both results will prompt intervention to balance the risks.
Is High Beta Worth The Risk? [View article]
My reference is more to the core of what High Beta should be, and that is in an up market High Beta implies out-performance. However there are protracted periods in an up-market where SPHB does not outperform, so it then it leads to questions as to why this is so.
Frankly, one conclusion I draw is that many labels used to identify investing strategies are flawed. How to use the product profitably is a matter to be determined, possibly as you suggest.
Is High Beta Worth The Risk? [View article]
Dow 20K - A Halfway Update [View article]
It is still important to find the true causal link isn't it!
Why Australian Equity Market Is Prone To Violent Corrections [View article]
A Bubble In 'Safety' Driven By Bond Funds? [View article]
To be clear, I can understand some speculative stock making people nervous, but why should JNJ make people nervous given that its where it is because the dividend is acceptable.