Portfolio Strategy For An Inflationary Environment [View article]
The author forgot an obvious one. Despite the fact that debt (in a global sense) is in runaway mode, an excellent strategy is to borrow to the max and buy anything which goes up with little risk...a second house springs easily to mind.
Trying to beat inflation using 100% equity to fund an asset purchase is a pretty tough ask.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Opinion Replace Data? [View article]
MLP, If fund managers are so on top of things that they pump and dump and make profits, then why is it that they fail to beat the index? From my time in funds management, I cannot say I saw this type of behaviour at all. Most guys there were just were consistently wrong!
Where's The Bottom For Gold Miners? [View article]
Its not as if gold miners mine a bottomless pit of gold. It must be just about the toughest of the mining jobs on the planet. Thousand meters down, heat and ore which is far from uniform requiring massive development expenditure. Then next door is a copper mine which produces tonnes of the stuff as by-product and floods the market.
If gold miners are not looking good, just check out how tough next years production target is to achieve.
The Biggest Investor Lesson From Earnings Season [View article]
"A better method"
A really good quant putting together a really good Random Forest based decision system. The advantages...data based, limited interaction with humans and their foibles, does exactly what Jeff suggested..."The sum of their conclusions would represent a comprehensive look at current earnings, revenue, etc"
Reserve Bank Of Australia Holds Rates, Leaving Currency To Drift Lower [View article]
My view, for what it is worth, is that there is a delicate balancing act in progress. The high AUD has acted to restrain inflation in Australia given labour shortages during the mining boom. The squeeze has been felt domestically via intense import competition. It seems far fetched, but there are some models of Mercedes which are now cheaper in Australia than the Aussie made cars, which of course means that the local car industry is at a standstill.
So, as mining capex starts to tail off, there will be a freeing of labour, and therefore, with an increasing unemployment rate, the RBA might feel more comfortable in seeing the AUD fall as this works through the economy on the basis that higher unemployment will continue to restrain inflation. The economy then stands a chance of rebalancing towards domestic production rather than imports. This might happen without excessive interest rate manipulation.
My expectation is that under these set of circumstances, the AUD would fall in a gradual rather than a precipitous manner.
Vale Reports First Loss In A Decade [View article]
Attributing weak demand in this climate is a weak excuse. As with RIO, one should question VALE management. Those write downs suggest a real problem at the top.
Individual Investors! Get Your Share Of Profits From The Fed [View article]
Not that I need to support the author, but Prophet, you do realise that, if you were a professional active fund manager, your performance would be lower quartile by now and your anxiety levels would be very high.
On the other hand, the author might be, at the very least, in the top half.
In reference to some of the above comments, I suggest doing what "big data" does, and that is, use a system which votes.
So Michael is putting up one analysis (and that may be a synthesis of many which he has, I don't know), others on SA put up other analysis, the commentators may have their own. Go back over time and see which combination of advices work best... that is which combinations are more consistently right than wrong, not absolutely right or wrong.
From my perspective, it is troubling that earnings growth seems to be levelling off just as stock prices are surging. My view is that we have to balance performance anxiety with sleeping at night, and my problem is that it is my anxiety that is stopping me from sleeping, as well as my fear of losing money.
More on FOMC minutes: Those expressing concern about the costs/risks from further asset purchases are upgraded to "many" from "several." A "number" said a close look at the data might well lead the FOMC to "taper or end" QE before a substantial improvement in the labor market occurred. "Several" argue the risks of ending too soon are also significant. Status quo for now, but the monetary law of the land can clearly no longer be called QE∞. [View news story]
Boy, if you thought QE news affected the NYSE, look at what happened in ASX and Asia today.
Forecasting The Market: A Thought Experiment Revisited [View article]
I like the idea "if you can test it, test it".
On that score, I have plotted PE versus 1 year returns on numerous occasions, and I cannot conclude other than, PE is of no use in predicting future returns. However, there may well be more sophisticated calculations which give better results.
The One Thing You Must Remember Before You Buy Another Stock [View article]
It may or may not be obvious, but I live in Australia. Right now, I am watching the ASX All Ords Index being propelled by BHP and RIO, up over 2.5% each. Yesterday it was the major banks.
Considering that we all expect a domestic and China economy downturn and a weakening AUD, this is a most unusual outcome. We do not have QE, so there is but one conclusion...The boom is on.
Federal Budget Continues To Improve [View article]
You will soon be saving zillions with the end of overseas wars don't forget, and getting increased taxes from oil and gas production within the US. I think someone in Government has it all figured out.
The One Thing You Must Remember Before You Buy Another Stock [View article]
Here is my two bobs worth of thoughts. The situation in 2007 was markedly worse than now. The money tap was an unsustainable flow of debt backed by mortgage borrowing on homes. The business practices in the finance sector were mildly shocking as we now know.
Nothing in 2007 was sustainable, but the situation was able to be hidden. The current situation, in my view, is a stabilisation exercise designed to overcome the problems of 2007. Without that stabilisation, things really would be bad.
Is it bad..no it isn't. Look at Europe today and compare that to 1945, 1956, 1980. I will take today any-time.
Portfolio Strategy For An Inflationary Environment [View article]
Trying to beat inflation using 100% equity to fund an asset purchase is a pretty tough ask.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Opinion Replace Data? [View article]
Where's The Bottom For Gold Miners? [View article]
If gold miners are not looking good, just check out how tough next years production target is to achieve.
The Biggest Investor Lesson From Earnings Season [View article]
A really good quant putting together a really good Random Forest based decision system. The advantages...data based, limited interaction with humans and their foibles, does exactly what Jeff suggested..."The sum of their conclusions would represent a comprehensive look at current earnings, revenue, etc"
Jeff, is there a prize?
Reserve Bank Of Australia Holds Rates, Leaving Currency To Drift Lower [View article]
So, as mining capex starts to tail off, there will be a freeing of labour, and therefore, with an increasing unemployment rate, the RBA might feel more comfortable in seeing the AUD fall as this works through the economy on the basis that higher unemployment will continue to restrain inflation. The economy then stands a chance of rebalancing towards domestic production rather than imports. This might happen without excessive interest rate manipulation.
My expectation is that under these set of circumstances, the AUD would fall in a gradual rather than a precipitous manner.
What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Alamos Gold Edition [View article]
What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Alamos Gold Edition [View article]
Vale Reports First Loss In A Decade [View article]
Individual Investors! Get Your Share Of Profits From The Fed [View article]
On the other hand, the author might be, at the very least, in the top half.
Meanwhile, Transports Fool Nouveaux Bulls [View article]
So Michael is putting up one analysis (and that may be a synthesis of many which he has, I don't know), others on SA put up other analysis, the commentators may have their own. Go back over time and see which combination of advices work best... that is which combinations are more consistently right than wrong, not absolutely right or wrong.
From my perspective, it is troubling that earnings growth seems to be levelling off just as stock prices are surging. My view is that we have to balance performance anxiety with sleeping at night, and my problem is that it is my anxiety that is stopping me from sleeping, as well as my fear of losing money.
More on FOMC minutes: Those expressing concern about the costs/risks from further asset purchases are upgraded to "many" from "several." A "number" said a close look at the data might well lead the FOMC to "taper or end" QE before a substantial improvement in the labor market occurred. "Several" argue the risks of ending too soon are also significant. Status quo for now, but the monetary law of the land can clearly no longer be called QE∞. [View news story]
Forecasting The Market: A Thought Experiment Revisited [View article]
On that score, I have plotted PE versus 1 year returns on numerous occasions, and I cannot conclude other than, PE is of no use in predicting future returns. However, there may well be more sophisticated calculations which give better results.
The One Thing You Must Remember Before You Buy Another Stock [View article]
Considering that we all expect a domestic and China economy downturn and a weakening AUD, this is a most unusual outcome. We do not have QE, so there is but one conclusion...The boom is on.
How is that for making one think?
Federal Budget Continues To Improve [View article]
The One Thing You Must Remember Before You Buy Another Stock [View article]
Nothing in 2007 was sustainable, but the situation was able to be hidden. The current situation, in my view, is a stabilisation exercise designed to overcome the problems of 2007. Without that stabilisation, things really would be bad.
Is it bad..no it isn't. Look at Europe today and compare that to 1945, 1956, 1980. I will take today any-time.