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Villi Grdovich  

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  • The Global Liquidity Squeeze Has Begun [View article]
    IBS web site, 18 March 2015

    "According to the latest BIS statistics, as banking systems recover, and with risk appetites remaining strong, bank lending has strengthened as a channel for global liquidity, alongside persistently high volumes of global bond market issuance. The historical pattern where low levels of volatility coincide with a rapid growth of crossborder banking flows may be starting to reassert itself."

    Has this really reversed itself in the past month? And especially to the extent that we are now all doomed.
    Apr 19, 2015. 12:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Derailment? [View article]
    The capital cost of infrastructure has exploded in the past 10 years. It is food for thought that much of this was built when the nation was poorer, but can hardly be maintained or replaced now that it is much richer.
    Apr 8, 2015. 05:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: The Greatest Market Crash Of Your Lifetime Is Coming [View article]
    "In 2014, while promoting his book The Demographic Cliff in Australia, he predicted a major Australian housing market correction beginning in 2014"

    Can't blame Dent for getting the Australian housing market wrong. He has good company in the Governor of the Reserve Bank no less, who warned of borrowing too much to buy property, then lowered interest rates to the lowest level in memory and has then been silent as prices have appreciated by 20%...and no signs of stopping.

    What hope do we have of getting it right when the man controlling the levers is struggling.
    Apr 2, 2015. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Vs. David Einhorn: Who Is Better At Picking Stocks? [View article]
    I once saw (around 10 years ago now) an academic paper that looked at doing what a famed hedge fund manager did, only lagged by a given time interval, and it also showed a benefit. I wouldn't discount this process, though I suspect that it is probably best applied to certain market sectors rather than the whole market.
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dalio pulls the 1937 card [View news story]
    What is this TM cult?
    Mar 17, 2015. 11:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Billiton - Is It The Right Time For This Basic Materials Giant? [View article]
    Did i miss mention of a split of assets. The structure of BHp going forward is just as important at this time as any factor mentioned in the article.
    Mar 16, 2015. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: The Case Of The Missing PE [View article]
    Another Sherlock Holmes quote along the lines of "the dog didn't bark". If you don't know why, you are missing a vital clue...not that I know what it is, but it exists.
    Mar 9, 2015. 06:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of 2 Bubbles [View article]
    Oh cummon, to say Dalby and Chinchilla have become ghost towns is a bit rich. Ex a few years when coal seam gas was under construction, they have always been dusty outback towns waiting for something to happen.

    They were plain lucky to have had a few years in the sun.

    If you really want to examine the impact of the end of the mining boom, you will have to do a thorough examination of Cairns, Townsville and Mackay where the flyin-flyout crowd live.
    Mar 6, 2015. 01:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Net Neutrality To Sweep The Nation? [View article]
    levy a property tax. I pay $1,200 per annum on a $1 mill property and I get all the services I need. Whats so hard about that?
    Feb 26, 2015. 10:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Net Neutrality To Sweep The Nation? [View article]
    "We need FTTP (Fiber to the Premise) so that you can go overnight from today's "multi-megabit" services to multi-gigabit services - at the same price."

    Well don't mention that to an Australian. The previous Government started to do just that at a cost of $40 bill (guesstimated on the back of an envelope). Now at least 5 years later, we find that (a) the cost has increased to $100 bill and (b) It still cannot complete a fiber to premises rollout despite the cost blow out.

    Subcontractors have been bankrupted and the whole mess is now right off the painful to think about. As for the same way known to man unless it gets a massive subsidy from...dare I say it...Government.
    Feb 26, 2015. 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Billiton: Attractive And Sustainable Dividend [View article]
    I am not sure that the author has factored in the expected rationalization of mining assets. I would really like to know how that is being analysed, and then how the oil and potash business is playing out.

    Historically, there is limited downside in BHP and RIO on a PE of less than 10
    Feb 26, 2015. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Do We Decide That Europe Must Restructure Much Of Its Debt? [View article]
    What would happen if instead of German taxpayers, it was Chinese money and investment that turned the situation around? Would Europe stand for that?
    Feb 26, 2015. 05:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Debt Bomb Remains A Stealth Candidate For Top Gray Swan Of 2015 [View article]
    Just came back from a holiday in some of the disaster zones mentioned above. What a great place the world is famine,no pestilence. I've noticed a really really big improvement on 1945.
    Feb 17, 2015. 01:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • G-20 Meeting - Unfortunate Shipping Analogies [View article]
    "In fact, it seems rather likely that there is not a single government-provided service that could not be supplied more cheaply and more efficiently by an unhampered market economy".

    Only in theory. In fact, I can assure the writer that it has not happened in Australia. In Melbourne, the train system was given to a private operator. The system has some built in demands...for one that trains have to arrive within a few minutes of a schedule. Now the operator cannot do that, so what they do when they start to fall behind schedule is to not stop the train. That's right, you can be on a train that takes you 3 or 4 stations past your get off point.

    If that was a government service, this wouldn't happen. You might be late, but you would always get off at your station. In this instance, no number of complaints changes the situation. In fact my local politician said..."I don't know how they get away with it".

    I could go on, but the idea that private enterprise can undertake all economic functions from government and do it better is false, false, false.
    Feb 11, 2015. 05:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Value With The Piotroski F-Score Part 2 [View article]
    I think I know the site you refer to. In any case, the one I follow certainly picks stocks from time to time which I find hard to commit my money to.

    From my experiences, a real drawback is less whether a system picks winners, but how to devise a system which screens out the losers within that same system. So an F-Score is say a system of choice, but within that system you will find stocks which lose 20% instead of gaining, and that turns out to be a killer in a small concentrated portfolio.

    That is no easy task because a stock price conflates so many equally important variables.

    Nice to chat.
    Feb 7, 2015. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment