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Vince Martin  

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  • AVG Technologies: Solid Q1, But Not Enough To Turn Bullish [View article]
    From a subscription standpoint I guess the question is whether or not an investor sees a near-term peak - it is a more stable revenue stream but that doesn't mean it can't turn south in the not-too-distant future. There's also the question of what type of EPS that business alone can support - they're basically getting free cash from search, since I doubt they're putting any R&D or much in the way of SG&A into it (and gross margins are 95%).

    I don't see them as much of an acquisition play - I don't think they really fold well into SYMC or INTC. My question with private equity/LBO/etc. is whether non-Dutch ownership would jeopardize their very sweet tax deal.
    May 1, 2015. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek: At All-Time Lows, Still Not A Buy [View article]
    Curtis:

    Thanks for the kind words. As for valuation, it's tough with so many moving parts. I think from a margin of safety standpoint it would have to be at least fair value of Mt. Milligan - net debt (maybe adding ~$100 million for Langeloth at 7x cash flow or something like that). That way, I have the 'free option' on moly - but I truthfully don't think the moly mines have material value right now. There's $100M+ costs and it's not unrealistic that they're dormant for another 5 years. But between refinancing and execution risks I don't think I'd be interested above $1 in the next few months (barring a dramatic change).
    May 1, 2015. 02:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OmniVision Technologies: Leave The Spread, Take The Offer [View article]
    Fair point - I was trying to fill in the third required bullet point and "leave it to the professionals" was probably not the best choice of words.
    May 1, 2015. 02:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OmniVision Technologies: Leave The Spread, Take The Offer [View article]
    I didn't say that I agreed that the purchase would be denied - I said that smart people did, and that it's a risk. Read the links in the article - multiple analysts have discussed potential regulatory blocks relative to the buyout. I think the chances are low but there is a chance nonetheless. It's not that the GOP-Dem debate in September 2016 will have its first question on OVTI, but it only takes one primary candidate to play up the "we're selling our tech to China for a few billion" to focus attention.

    Profit and margin erosion are expected because that's the business model of semiconductor companies - you sell ever-increasing amounts of products at ever-lowering prices. There isn't anyone - OVTI included - who thinks they have the unit growth potential to overcome that in the near term.
    May 1, 2015. 02:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OmniVision Technologies: Leave The Spread, Take The Offer [View article]
    Many individual investors are going to have commissions eat up a fair amount of their returns.
    May 1, 2015. 02:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eldorado Resorts: Two Bad Businesses Don't Make A Good One [View article]
    The core thesis here is that ERI is going to have trouble growing going forward - not sure where you're getting the idea that it's purely backward-looking. My point is trailing valuation is already reasonable and I don't see it getting better with PA/WV heading quickly toward accelerating and negative operating leverage.

    I did read your coverage - well done on the trade. I'd be interested in how you support $160M in EBITDA in FY15, bc that will obviously be a huge difference in how we get to fair value. The $200M figure simply seems way too optimistic from my standpoint - I'd point out that Scioto needs a constitutional amendment for table games and I'd correct one other point: Indiana already has card games. Thanks for the comment - interested to hear your argument for growth here.
    May 1, 2015. 02:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Full House Resorts: A Speculative - And Likely Entertaining - Potential Turnaround [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. You may be right; I may be a bit too optimistic on Lee and the plan here. (As an occasionally loud-mouthed Irishman I probably have a soft spot for kindred spirits.)
    That said, management contracts aren't that easy to find and I don't think he has much choice on the ownership front. There's no hope of selling Rising Star with the lease obligation. The Mississippi hotel Lee admits that he probably wouldn't have built. But it's halfway done so what is he going to do?
    I think the endgame here is a sale of the hotels - maybe as a group, maybe individually. ERI and MCRI (more likely the former) would be interesting candidates for Fallon. I don't think Rising Star makes it. A fixed up Mississippi might be of interest to one of the regionals (ISLE perhaps? I'd have to double-check their locations.) All told, your strategy might be the correct one but I'm not sure how Lee can head in that direction right now - what's the point of selling the hotels when their value is at/near their lowest point?
    Apr 30, 2015. 06:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eldorado Resorts: Two Bad Businesses Don't Make A Good One [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words - they are rewarding and appreciated.
    Apr 30, 2015. 01:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eldorado Resorts: Two Bad Businesses Don't Make A Good One [View article]
    The only real reason for the tie-up that I can see is that if you broaden the EBITDA base you can get a more attractive rate on the refi. To me, the most worrisome thing is having the eastern business directed from western management. I'm not sure to what extent that will occur, but Columbus and Reno are two different businesses, not just two different markets.
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eldorado Resorts: Two Bad Businesses Don't Make A Good One [View article]
    It's more interesting that way.
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: Bearish Bias Confirmed By Q3 [View article]
    They'll probably occur anyhow. Everyone was happy when Lafley came back, and it was Bill Ackman who pushed out the former CEO, McDonald, in the first place.

    That said, Lafley is 67 and has already retired once, so I can't imagine he'll be on too much longer. He's likely re-retiring within the next 12 months (see here - http://reut.rs/1GFJbPr - or google "P&G Narrows Field For CEO Succession" to read the WSJ article.)

    When they do pick a new CEO, you'll likely see some movement as well - those who are passed over (there's supposedly a group of 4 internal candidates) may leave and P&G might take the opportunity to make some other changes at the same time.
    Apr 29, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: Bearish Bias Confirmed By Q3 [View article]
    Agreed. I think PG's argument is that the remaining brands are creating some growth - if they stick to the 'best of the best', the organic growth profile will improve. I don't necessarily buy it as yet.
    Apr 28, 2015. 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: Bearish Bias Confirmed By Q3 [View article]
    That comment is precisely the reason why I argued above that I don't see the stock going past $70 in the mid-term. I think it's a reasonable argument and if you see PG nearing 3.5% yield there will be a lot more people making a similar case. Thanks for the comment.
    Apr 28, 2015. 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: Bearish Bias Confirmed By Q3 [View article]
    The bright spots in Grooming and Laundry Detergent both came from new products/innovation, which supports your point. Not enough of those bright spots right now though.
    Apr 28, 2015. 09:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: Bearish Bias Confirmed By Q3 [View article]
    I'm a big believer right now that dividend yield can provide support (since yields are so slight everywhere else) - so I agree with you that the "all time high" dividend yield you cite can definitely provide support. Fundamentally, I think there's actually a reasonable short case here; from a timing standpoint, though, I don't see any way PG gets close to a 4% yield any time soon (which would be about $66), so I think that limits upside for a short here.
    Apr 28, 2015. 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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