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Vince Martin  

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  • TheStreet: An Interesting Play Below $2 [View article]
    What's your issue(s) and why is it junk? I'm sure other readers would be interested in your two cents, as would I.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TheStreet: An Interesting Play Below $2 [View article]
    Well, I don't think sub-index performance leading to "there will be no readers" is true. Otherwise, there would be about 80% fewer mutual funds as well :)

    Performance is tough to track - I'm not sure what Cramer's specific portfolio has done yearly, but I'd also argue that's not necessarily the point. There's a bit of entertainment value here, a bit of idea generation, and it's not as if readers are simply going to mimic Cramer's portfolio en masse.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TheStreet: An Interesting Play Below $2 [View article]
    As noted in the article, overall, it's been in the ~$1.5M range. At ~3% of revenue, it's not great, not terrible, IMO.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TheStreet: An Interesting Play Below $2 [View article]
    He receives more restricted stock then he sells. It's an end-around cash compensation, but 30K shares a month is less than $1M a year. I don't think the "piggy bank" description is a fair one.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TheStreet: An Interesting Play Below $2 [View article]
    Hey David, thanks for reading, hope all is well. I'll answer in order best I can:

    1) That's an interesting question. It certainly matters in the sense that there's a finite end to the source of capital for the dividend, and a fixed ceiling on the payment, so a 5.6% yield here is not the same as, say, PG or KO, which aim to pay ever-increasing dividends for decades (or centuries). From a theoretical valuation standpoint, I'm rather skeptical toward dividends in general, but in this particular case and this particular environment I think the yield matters, if only in terms of where the stock will trade in the short-/mid-term.

    2) Based on trajectory, FCF should clear stock-based compensation this year; The Deal and BoardEx are growing faster than TheStreet is declining.

    3) Good catch, my mistake - I'll submit a correction. The royalty only applies to products containing Action Alerts PLUS - I should have read the agreement in more detail.

    4) No, I don't think TST will re-sell those businesses - they're quite clearly part of the strategy to diversify away from the website and the subsequent focus on retail investors. It's difficult to value them bc TST doesn't break out revenue or profit figures. They are also growing businesses, and the profits aren't necessarily expected to come in 2015 or even 2016 - both appear to be more in the investment stage than the cash flow maximization stage.
    That said, The Deal appears to be providing growth and some level of profitability (which is improving on an overall basis) and BoardEx was only purchased a few months ago. Even applying a discount for the "auction winner's curse" to BoardEx, it doesn't seem at all aggressively to value them for what TST paid, or about $28 million.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bridgepoint Education: Yes, All Those Risks Are Priced In [View article]
    Thank you for the kind words - we'll see how the call plays out going forward.
    Apr 23, 2015. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek: At All-Time Lows, Still Not A Buy [View article]
    I think, were I to take default risk here, I'd rather be on the equity side where the potential upside is a lot more than 12-14%. The 2017s - which are secured - at 6+% strike me as a bit more interesting - if they default, the asset claim to Mt. Milligan means the recovery rate should be awfully high. (Moody's said the same when upgrading the debt, which was late last year, if I recall correctly.) That said, there should be some recovery on the 2018/2019s as well barring an absolutely epic collapse.
    Apr 23, 2015. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek: At All-Time Lows, Still Not A Buy [View article]
    That's true - there's a possibility this article could look very, very, dumb in 18 months' time. The problem with that argument is that it's always the argument with mining stocks in general, and TC in particular (see my 2012/2013 articles when the stock was at $4 or $5). If you see copper prices increase, you're also likely going to see oil increase and (likely) a weakening of the dollar, and the latter two will increase TC costs.

    And as noted above, I don't see moly at $15 for a very, very long time.
    Apr 23, 2015. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek: At All-Time Lows, Still Not A Buy [View article]
    It's true that the company is leveraged to metals prices in a way that TC can definitely post some serious gains if things work out. But, as noted in a comment above, that's true of probably every mining stock in one way or the other, and there are probably better pure plays as well. Not sure what the cash-to-debt ratio shows - a lot depends on when the debt matures, and TC simply has to find a way to refinance, there's just no way around it.
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek: At All-Time Lows, Still Not A Buy [View article]
    It's fair to point out that the outcome of management's decisions hasn't been great, but that doesn't mean all the decisions were poor. The stock gained a lot post-Terrane, although some of that was just metals pricing.

    That said, I'm less worried about the decision-making than the operational management. Every bleeping thing this company does seem to have a 50% cost overrun. And there are always seemingly minor things going on that consistently keep the company from hitting its goals. It may have been a bit unfair to blame the new CEO for past mistakes, but after 6+ years following this stock the song is starting to sound the same.

    As for metals, I think the question with TC is: is it the best play if you see better copper/moly/gold prices? I'm also very bearish on moly - the strong dollar will keep those prices down, and the fact that it is often mined as a byproduct means that production can't really be rationalized. Add Sierra Gorda to the mix and you've got a recipe for single-digit moly for a good long while. It's also worth noting that I think moly was around ~$14 when they decided not to do the $100 million stripping on Thompson Creek. In other words, there's a reasonable scenario here where TC/Endako idled for close to a decade - I think moly has to at least double for those mines to be brought back close to full strength.
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AVG Technologies: Declining Earnings And Increased Competition Could Lead To A Short Case [View article]
    Thanks for the detailed comment - you obviously know the stock and it's always good to have a rebuttal in the comments. I'll try to answer in order:

    1) As far as TuneUp goes, I don't think it's fair to say the headwinds have disappeared. Overall billings may have stagnated, but they can go south, too. I also think having those reviews on a site the company itself deems key to security sales can have an impact there.

    2) Auto-renewal impact has a ceiling - it can't get to 100%, obviously. (Theoretically, I suppose.) The boost going forward of that change is going to moderate - the biggest benefit from that decision is in year one. So if that's driving revenue growth in 2014, its impact will lessen in 2015, 2016, etc. In addition, you have the EU essentially disabling that option, and I have to believe the CFPB could at least consider something similar during Obama's last ~18 months.

    3) Yes, the comps are easier, and they are guiding for revenue growth this year. But third-party is still going to pull that revenue down, and is still pulling earnings down.

    4) As far as SYMC goes, yes, I think AVG should trade at a discount. Yes, storage is pulling SYMC's valuation down - but the declining, but profitable, Secure Search business is pushing AVG's up. I suppose that's a key part of the bull/bear argument here.

    My larger point is this: essentially, I don't trust their guidance. I see a miss to be far more likely than hitting or exceeding the top of their range. That may just be a bias on my part, but I just see too many points of execution that have to go well here, and too many reasons why they might not. So my thought process here is that if I see a Q1 that means full-year guidance is either pulled down or likely to be pulled down, then I think the fundamentals here drastically change, and it's a solid short opportunity. If the company can pull off the 'pivot', I'll give credit where it's due. But my take here is that if it appears that they're facing challenges moving to mobile, etc., they're going to get punished by the market.
    Apr 22, 2015. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cray: Lumpy Revenues Obscure A Strong Buy [View article]
    IBM's competitive edge is really hurt by the Lenovo deal. HP doesn't necessarily play well in Cray's sand box.

    In terms of the stock - you make a good point that it trades kind of strangely. It's why I'm not yet long - I like it at these levels but I wouldn't be surprised if a better entry price comes around in the not-too-distant future.

    What's really odd is seeing big moves after quarterly earnings, when the company - and anyone who really knows the stock - makes clear, over and over, that you can't really measure this kind of business by the quarter.
    Apr 15, 2015. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: Back To Pincus, Back To The Lows [View article]
    The strategy and vision are harder to find than cash, particularly in this environment :)
    Apr 11, 2015. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: Back To Pincus, Back To The Lows [View article]
    He's already one of the best CEOs if you work for Zynga; if a shareholder, not so much. I give him credit for the $1 salary, but I also wonder how long that will last (he gave himself a $250K raise for 2014).

    I will say this: if he does something in the first 6 months for shareholders - either a repurchase they actually execute or a special/regular dividend - I'll open the door to a possible redemption. If he doesn't do that, then I'll have a hard time buying the "second time around" argument.
    Apr 11, 2015. 09:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: Back To Pincus, Back To The Lows [View article]
    Yes, it did rise but it's back to ~breakeven, like it has many times before. If I was more of a trader (or had any faith in my ability to trade) I'd trade the heck out of this stock. Sub-$2.50 has long been a great swing trade entry point, I admit.

    But if you see long-term upside here, why the covered calls that could give away a lot of that upside?
    Apr 11, 2015. 09:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment