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Vince Martin
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As a Senior Editor on the SA Pro Content Team, my responsibility is to identify the best possible content for the Pro platform, manage existing contributors and develop new ones for that content, and work with other departments to make the Pro platform a success. I was a contributor to Seeking... More
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  • Time to Short Tivo Again?
    Back in July I criticized rumors of a Tivo acquisition and recomended a short on the stock. Indeed, the stock ran all the way down near the $7 mark in August before rebounding sharply with the broader market and good earnings. The chart:

    Tivo Chart
    The stock is now once again at resistance around $11 -- is it time to short again?

    Second quarter earnings beat guidance, but they still represented a net loss of $17 million, and third quarter guidance includes guidance of a loss of $27-$29 million. It's very possible Tivo will repeat the pattern from May-July, where it dived quickly once the enthusiasm faded. No doubt the recent rally was in part aided by short covering, so the question going forward is where the buying momentum will come from, at least until Tivo announces that it's lost more money.

    Disclosure: No positions, no positions will be entered Thursday or Friday. 
    Sep 01 2:52 PM | Link | Comment!
  • DISH Tips Its Hand...Somwhat
    Earlier this month I tried to make sense of Charlie Ergen's spending appears that DISH is indeed rolling its own wireless broadband network. 

    This will enable DISH to compete with the "bundled" packages of AT&T and Verizon. Weak earnings a few weeks back clobbered the stock, but investors might look at DISH at current levels. Charlie Ergen is sure to add some entertainment value along the way.
    Aug 26 9:41 PM | Link | Comment!
  • GLD vs GDX Re-Visited -- Why Such A Difference Today?
    Back in July I wrote about the widening spread between returns in GLD, the SPDR Gold Trust, and GDX, the Gold Miners ETF. The miners were lagging gold -- and the broader market -- badly despite the fact that gold prices had stayed relatively flat. In fact, the GDX did make up much of its ground, before the spread began again during the recent 2-week, 10% broad market correction.

    Today, in the midst of a 4.8% market decline, we see the same thing, exaggerated: GLD down 0.5% for the day, GDX down 5.7% (though it did pare losses late). Oil -- a key input cost for the miners -- plunged as well, so it should have been a decent day for gold miners, at least relative to the market as a whole.

    This would seem to lead to a couple of possible conclusions:

    1. The stock market is overreacting. This is not a fundamental sell-off, simply fear of macro conditions overhwhelming micro considerations.

    2. The confidence around the edges of the gold market is not quite as strong as the goldbugs would have us believe.

    If anything, the day should have been somewhat bullish for gold miners: negative macro sentiment should not cripple the price of gold, but we're looking at 2008 redux, we're also looking at a signficant drop in oil prices, which is a significant drop in operating expenses. It may just be that the entire investment world has become so correlated that there is nowhere to hide. Still, I'm taking this as a bit of evidence that both stock market bearishness and gold bullishness are a bit overblown right now.

    (Disclosure: No open positions in either GDX, GLD, or any form of gold investment vehicle.)

    Tags: GLD, GDX, gold
    Aug 04 5:34 PM | Link | Comment!
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