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Vincent Cate

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  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    Also, Japan, USA, UK don't have enough taxes to pay all their expenses and so need to make new money. It is really very much the same thing.
    Jul 6 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    Of course along with "printing money" and "quantitave easing" there are more than a hundred other ways to say "debasing the currency":

    http://bit.ly/1beFbX8
    Jul 6 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    To this day we say, "the Fed is debasing the currency" because it is really the same thing as the Romans did. They made more and more coins, the Fed makes more and more paper money. Really the same thing and the same word is used for both.
    Jul 6 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    Yes, another 1% to 2% increase in interest rates or another recession (could happen anytime) and the deficit will pass the 40% number. The risk is real and yet most people don't take it seriously.
    Jul 6 03:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    There is a PDF of the Bernholz book online for free, so I recommend that:

    http://bit.ly/10FaiXH
    Jul 6 03:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    The way they apply to the United States is explained in Bernholz. This also goes into detail explaining them. If you don't want to buy the book then start with the link below:

    http://bit.ly/12MAM5X
    Jul 6 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    When interest rates and inflation rates go down the velocity of money goes down. This means that at first when they print money and buy bonds the lower interest rate makes a lower velocity, which compensates for the increased quantity of money and prevents inflation. Now if interest rates keep going up the velocity of money will go up, which is when the inflation will really come.

    My point is very simple. People that think are monetary system is safe from hyperinflation have been proven wrong by all the other places with about the same system that did get hyperinflation. The number of hyperinflation cases depends on what you count as the cutoff point for hyperinflation. Some people use 50% per month and get 56 cases. I like 26% per year, which is well over 100 cases.

    These cases all have the same thing. The government spending far more than they get in taxes and the central bank making money and buying government debt. I promise you can not find one that has a government with a balanced budget. You are free to google hyperinflation and look at all kinds of different ways that government budgets get into trouble. To me the that part of the history is not so interesting as it does not change how hyperinflation works. The other problem is that any particular example has all sorts of details about how the government spending got out of control that don't apply to the USA. So when people look at examples they say, "that will never happen here, we are safe from hyperinflation". So focusing on a few examples is not a good idea. Bernholz looked at many examples in his book and I recommend that.

    They are all relevant to the US as they all show what happens when spending, debt, and deficit get out of control.
    Jul 5 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    If you read my FAQ you can learn what they all have in common and the mechanics of how hyperinflation happens. The many different cases are just different ways that governments get out of control spending, debt, and deficits. There are lots of different ways to get out of control spending, debt, and deficit, but these differences don't matter for understanding how hyperinflation works.
    Jul 5 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    People who think that with a "modern monitary system" you can not get hyperinflation have already been proven wrong over 100 times. But those who do not learn the lessons of history are condemned to repeat them. Those who understand what is coming will get through it better.

    http://bit.ly/Xrsxgw
    Jul 5 10:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is This Default And Hyperinflation Everyone Has Been Telling Me About For 25 Years Now?? [View instapost]
    Of course the Yen is going to go down. To really understand hyperinflation just read this:

    http://bit.ly/Xrsxgw
    Jun 27 03:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Short Japanese Government Bonds Is Now [View article]
    Betting in fiat dollars about hyperinflation is like shorting bonds. If you are right you win worthless money.

    How about I buy some silver and you short some silver, and we will call that the bet? Any amount you want to do works for me. Ok?
    Apr 13 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Short Japanese Government Bonds Is Now [View article]
    Shorting bonds when hyperinflation is coming may not work well. On paper you will have profits, but they may be in worthless money after starting with real money. There will probably be a crash in bond prices before the hyperinflation totally destroys the value of the Yen, so if you do it right you could close the short then and do well. But be careful, wait too long and you won't really win.
    Apr 12 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just Where Is That Inflation Again? [View article]
    A true gold bug buys "physical gold" and is not on margin. :-)
    Mar 28 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just Where Is That Inflation Again? [View article]
    I can show you a simulation of the big scary inflation monster. I think it is very educational. You can see and understand the main feedback loops in the hyperinflation death spiral.

    http://bit.ly/11PsFr8

    Hard to say when he will come though.
    Mar 27 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Cyprus Could Cause Hyperinflation, And How Agriculture Can Save You [View article]
    I have a Hyperinflation FAQ that you may find interesting:

    http://bit.ly/Xrsxgw
    Mar 24 05:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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