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Vincent Cate

 
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  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    Cullen, if someone in 2005 said, "I think the housing market is going to crash in the next 2 years but certainly in the next 5 years" and you in 2007 said "they have been proven wrong again and again over the last 2 years" then you would look very foolish a few years later.

    Foreign holdings of Treasuries are going down. Something I think you said could not happen. The Fed is now monetizing at a rate of about $1 trillion per year while the deficit is only about 2/3rds of this. That means that on net people are getting out of Treasuries. Something I also think you said would not happen as you think people need these to save. These are steps along the way to hyperinflation.

    If you search all of history I am sure you won't find a single case where a government with debt at or over 80% of GNP and deficit over 20% of spending tripled the base money supply over a 5 year period and did not get some serious inflation in the next 5 years. You seem to think that calling it "Quantitative Easing" instead of "money printing" means "this time is different" but you are mistaken.

    The reason you get 200 and 400 comments when you say things about hyperinflation is that what you are saying is wrong and many people try to explain where you go wrong. You would do well to read and contemplate what I have written.

    http://bit.ly/17lSUx1
    Oct 27 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    My grandpa could have hidden $1000 in gold coins down in the cellar in 1967. Today I could take some of these to a "cash for gold" place and walk away with cash and forget to pay any taxes. My grandpa is dead and nobody else would know where I got the gold coins I cashed in.

    Each time you got dividends, you would be taxed. Each time they changed the components of the S&P500 you would have to adjust your holdings and be taxed on any gains. I am assuming there was no SPR ETF back in 1967. If today you wanted to sell and spend some money you would be taxed. If you take into account taxes for S&P but not for gold, I suspect gold wins.
    Oct 25 09:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    Cullen, if we follow your link we find: " I think it is in the next 2 years but feel it is nearly certain within the next 10 years. But partly it starts with a loss of confidence, which being a human thing, is not something where you can exactly predict the timing."

    My two links are not about making a particular prediction. I am interested in understanding how hyperinflation really works.

    If any little error of mine in the above discredits me at all then your serious errors in preaching MMT discredit you for life. Even you now agree that MMT is wrong.
    Oct 25 07:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    Cullen has not debunked my hyperinflation posts. He has never responded to my two main posts on hyperinflation and he now deletes my links when I post them on his site.

    http://bit.ly/Xrsxgw

    http://bit.ly/15SicSd

    I think these posts completely debunk his position on hyperinflation.
    Oct 24 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    It is really Cullen's anti-hyperinflation that can not be falsified and has no predictive ability. After he will point to some regime instability or production decline or external problem. The problem is that hyperinflation is as much a cause of these as a symptom of these.

    The hyperinflationists say it comes from high debt and deficits. If you can find any hyperinflation without these you could falsify our claims.

    I say it starts when people are getting out of bonds and the central bank has to buy bonds fast so the government has cash to pay off bonds and operate. If you can find one hyperinflation where people were not fleeing bonds when it started, you could falsify my claim.
    Oct 24 09:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperinflation: More Than Just a Monetary Phenomenon [View article]
    I collect explanations of hyperinflation as a hobby. I have more than 30 different explanations. Of all that I have found the MMT/MR treatment is the most bogus. See why here:
    http://bit.ly/15SicSd
    Oct 7 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold And Silver Prices Are Not Headed For The Stratosphere [View article]
    I think this is a time in history where it is important to really understand hyperinflation. To help with this I am working on a Hyperinflation FAQ. If you see anything that you think is wrong in this please post in the comments below the FAQ.

    http://bit.ly/Xrsxgw
    Aug 20 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    During hyperinflation "bank money" goes down. Banks don't make long term loans. So if you look at a definition of the money supply including bank deposits and credit then the start of every hyperinflation looks like deflation. Does not keep the prices from shooting up.
    Jul 13 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    The velocity of money was going down because interest rates were going down. If interest rates start going up, then the velocity of money will go up. This will add to the inflationary pressure of money printing instead of compensating for it.
    Jul 13 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    So I would say that when hyperinflation starts the longer the bond the more different it will be from cash. The shorter, the sooner it turns into cash. In the limit, if you have a bond that turns into cash tomorrow then it is not very different from cash.
    Jul 11 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    When hyperinflation first starts, say the first month report of 5% monthly inflation after there was 2% yearly before, then 30 year bonds drop to something like 1 cent on the dollar, or maybe less. At that point the difference between someone who had $10,000 cash and someone who had $10,000 in 30 year bonds is a factor of 100. The reason is that the 30 year bond has to face many many months of inflation before the payout comes and the cash can be spent. So it is just not accurate to say "no difference".
    Jul 11 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    Also, Japan, USA, UK don't have enough taxes to pay all their expenses and so need to make new money. It is really very much the same thing.
    Jul 6 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    Of course along with "printing money" and "quantitave easing" there are more than a hundred other ways to say "debasing the currency":

    http://bit.ly/1beFbX8
    Jul 6 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    To this day we say, "the Fed is debasing the currency" because it is really the same thing as the Romans did. They made more and more coins, the Fed makes more and more paper money. Really the same thing and the same word is used for both.
    Jul 6 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Hyperinflation, Money And Credit, The U.S. Dollar And The Term 'Printing Money' ... [View article]
    Yes, another 1% to 2% increase in interest rates or another recession (could happen anytime) and the deficit will pass the 40% number. The risk is real and yet most people don't take it seriously.
    Jul 6 03:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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