Will China Grow Old Before It Becomes Rich? A Demographic Time Bomb, Part 1 [View article]
"its 2040 World GDP share at 40% of total would dwarf that of the US at 14% and EU at 5%."
Where are these numbers coming from? EU will be 5% of world GDP with the US at 14%. May I remind you that the EU's GDP is currently $17 tr versus $15 tr for the US. How exactly will the US triple its GDP relative to Europe?
Not So Golden Years: How An Aging Society Can Impact The Markets [View article]
Yeah, I definitively share your opinion. I have been frustrated lately with silly "top 5 ..." "Worst 10 ETF.." lists on SA. Articles like this one are gems that keep the community engaged. Nothing ground-breaking in it though, but the analysis is solid and very well documented.
Extraordinary Delusions Or The Madness Of Machines: Why Gold Might Be Setting Up For A Big Move Higher [View article]
Superb article!
I am not a gold bug and I am not sure that algo trading is responsible for the drop of gold prices --- to me gold is not the safe haven that gold bugs would like, think of what happened in 2008 Q4: investors need to sell their gold assets when they receive margin calls on underwater equity positions....
That being said, the style is magnificent, the analysis is very smart, this makes me love SA.
Beyond Beta: A New Paradigm For Emerging Markets ETFs [View article]
Hi John,
I was measuring these funds' beta against the S&P 500 -- it would probably be higher when compared to EFA due to currency movements.
Good points on indexing. I think most investors overlook the drawbacks of market-cap weighting indices and do not understand that these funds mechanically buy yesterday's winners. Here is an article I wrote on the topic last month: http://seekingalpha.co...
Beyond Beta: A New Paradigm For Emerging Markets ETFs [View article]
Hi hksche2000,
Thanks for the comment. I got into ALD in late September so I am in the money on the position so far. The fund is slightly up since the IPO I believe.
I agree the yield is better on ELD, but given the vol of currency markets, currency effects will likely dominate differences in yield. I like the better quality of the sovereign issuers in ALD.
The top holding in ELD are Russian gvt bonds - not such a good idea with the upcoming elections + I'd rather buy oil directly than rubles, that way I do not pay for the corruption of Putin and his cronies.
Beyond Beta: A New Paradigm For Emerging Markets ETFs [View article]
Thanks JTLawlor!
BTW, I agree with you on iBnd yields are lower than they should be, but they still are one of the best deals in fixed income, and money has to be invested somewhere...
Beyond Beta: A New Paradigm For Emerging Markets ETFs [View article]
Hey Flash9,
If you expect a big correction in the equity markets, you should probably look at EM bond ETFs. Money has to be invested somewhere, and if things turn ugly in the "developed" world, some EM bonds may become the new safe haven assets.
Monsters Of Our Own Making: How The Basel Agreements Fed The Sovereign Debt Crisis [View article]
Hi Rokjok777,
Thanks for the kind words. One precision: the Assignat was supposed to be backed by the land of properties of the Catholic Church, seized during the French Revolution. Of course, the Assignat supply quickly exceeded its collateral because of the need to finance wars and counterfeiters based in London.
The last French revolutionary government went as far as forbidding the use of gold and silver and punishing by death those who refused to accept the depreciated Assignat as legal tender.
Napoleon finally brought financial stability back by introducing the Franc in 1803, which was linked to gold.
But history works in twisted ways: although the Assignat was an utter disaster, it probably saved the French revolution (and helped our fledgling American allies) by allowing the French republic to devalue its debt and finance its wars against the monarchies of Europe.
Monsters Of Our Own Making: How The Basel Agreements Fed The Sovereign Debt Crisis [View article]
Thanks Tuckfinitee. Sadly there is no way to get back in time and we are stuck with this unmanageable pile of debt. It seems to me that the least bad way to deal with it is to monetize it in a clear and transparent process under democratic control.
But I agree with you, the odds of this outcome are fairly low.
Monsters Of Our Own Making: How The Basel Agreements Fed The Sovereign Debt Crisis [View article]
Thanks for the comment, Neutrinoman. What was wrong with monetarists was their belief that governments would ever let go of their seigniorage prerogative.
Economists should acknowledge that we live in an imperfect world and that a theoretical theory, no matter how elegant, will never be implemented if it goes against our basic instincts.
European Banks: Too Big To Fail Redux [View article]
Hey Maic,
Thanks for pointing out the ticker issue. I was referring to the Spanish ticker (SAN:SM), but that did not get through.That's the only drawback with the SA platform -- it is horrible for non US tickers.
Good luck with your trade! There will be pain along the way but it should pay off if you stick with it.
The Fiscal Cliff: QE Slayer [View article]
Will China Grow Old Before It Becomes Rich? A Demographic Time Bomb, Part 1 [View article]
Where are these numbers coming from? EU will be 5% of world GDP with the US at 14%. May I remind you that the EU's GDP is currently $17 tr versus $15 tr for the US. How exactly will the US triple its GDP relative to Europe?
Not So Golden Years: How An Aging Society Can Impact The Markets [View article]
Extraordinary Delusions Or The Madness Of Machines: Why Gold Might Be Setting Up For A Big Move Higher [View article]
The style remains excellent, but I will pay more attention to the content when I see a bearish article from this author....
Extraordinary Delusions Or The Madness Of Machines: Why Gold Might Be Setting Up For A Big Move Higher [View article]
I am not a gold bug and I am not sure that algo trading is responsible for the drop of gold prices --- to me gold is not the safe haven that gold bugs would like, think of what happened in 2008 Q4: investors need to sell their gold assets when they receive margin calls on underwater equity positions....
That being said, the style is magnificent, the analysis is very smart, this makes me love SA.
Beyond Beta: A New Paradigm For Emerging Markets ETFs [View article]
I was measuring these funds' beta against the S&P 500 -- it would probably be higher when compared to EFA due to currency movements.
Good points on indexing. I think most investors overlook the drawbacks of market-cap weighting indices and do not understand that these funds mechanically buy yesterday's winners. Here is an article I wrote on the topic last month:
http://seekingalpha.co...
Beyond Beta: A New Paradigm For Emerging Markets ETFs [View article]
Thanks for the comment. I got into ALD in late September so I am in the money on the position so far. The fund is slightly up since the IPO I believe.
I agree the yield is better on ELD, but given the vol of currency markets, currency effects will likely dominate differences in yield. I like the better quality of the sovereign issuers in ALD.
The top holding in ELD are Russian gvt bonds - not such a good idea with the upcoming elections + I'd rather buy oil directly than rubles, that way I do not pay for the corruption of Putin and his cronies.
Beyond Beta: A New Paradigm For Emerging Markets ETFs [View article]
BTW, I agree with you on iBnd yields are lower than they should be, but they still are one of the best deals in fixed income, and money has to be invested somewhere...
Fyi, here is a post I wrote on the bond bubble:
http://seekingalpha.co...
Beyond Beta: A New Paradigm For Emerging Markets ETFs [View article]
If you expect a big correction in the equity markets, you should probably look at EM bond ETFs. Money has to be invested somewhere, and if things turn ugly in the "developed" world, some EM bonds may become the new safe haven assets.
Monsters Of Our Own Making: How The Basel Agreements Fed The Sovereign Debt Crisis [View article]
Thanks for the kind words. One precision: the Assignat was supposed to be backed by the land of properties of the Catholic Church, seized during the French Revolution. Of course, the Assignat supply quickly exceeded its collateral because of the need to finance wars and counterfeiters based in London.
The last French revolutionary government went as far as forbidding the use of gold and silver and punishing by death those who refused to accept the depreciated Assignat as legal tender.
Napoleon finally brought financial stability back by introducing the Franc in 1803, which was linked to gold.
But history works in twisted ways: although the Assignat was an utter disaster, it probably saved the French revolution (and helped our fledgling American allies) by allowing the French republic to devalue its debt and finance its wars against the monarchies of Europe.
Monsters Of Our Own Making: How The Basel Agreements Fed The Sovereign Debt Crisis [View article]
Monsters Of Our Own Making: How The Basel Agreements Fed The Sovereign Debt Crisis [View article]
But I agree with you, the odds of this outcome are fairly low.
Monsters Of Our Own Making: How The Basel Agreements Fed The Sovereign Debt Crisis [View article]
Economists should acknowledge that we live in an imperfect world and that a theoretical theory, no matter how elegant, will never be implemented if it goes against our basic instincts.
Monsters Of Our Own Making: How The Basel Agreements Fed The Sovereign Debt Crisis [View article]
European Banks: Too Big To Fail Redux [View article]
Thanks for pointing out the ticker issue. I was referring to the Spanish ticker (SAN:SM), but that did not get through.That's the only drawback with the SA platform -- it is horrible for non US tickers.
Good luck with your trade! There will be pain along the way but it should pay off if you stick with it.