Vincent Fernando

Base Metals Forecast: Sharp Steel Slowdown, Iron Ore Overcapacity

Rohan, I don't quite understand you. We refer to UNCTAD forecasts... forecasts are forward looking. They FORECAST lower steel demand in 2009 vs. 2008.

Bank Overdraft Brouhaha: Why Can't People Take Responsibility for Themselves?

Steve: I am a big fan of one of your comments above, I quoted it on ym site. "And while I'm at it, I thought the following Seeking Alpha comment was a pretty concise bank fee management recommendation. "Steve in Greensboro", in response to people decrying overdraft fees: "Here is a personal financial planning tip. Here is how I avoid overdrawing my checking account. I do not write checks for more than I have in my bank account. It works for me.""
researchreloaded.com/c...

Bank Overdraft Brouhaha: Why Can't People Take Responsibility for Themselves?

dcb, see my response above. I was against the bailout. But to say they don't provide any value is to misunderstand how the economy works and all the services they provide. The fact that Google was able to grow so fast and take over the world within just a few years was due to the US capital markets. In most other countries, a good idea like google would have taken ages to get enough financing, and by then its competitors would have built themselves up. Thats just one example. I think if you truly don't think banks provide value then stop using them.

Bank Overdraft Brouhaha: Why Can't People Take Responsibility for Themselves?

In response to Davewmart, I think you raise a point I agree with. A lot of the anger towards banks could have been avoided by not bailing them out. The taxpayer bailed them out and then suddenly can pick them apart and get angry about salaries, practices, etc. Had they not bailed them out then one of the biggest arguments against them (they used taxpayer money) wouldn't to create the current witchhunt atmoshphere wouldn't exist.

Have We Forgotten That Savings Is a Good Thing?

Paying down credit card debt I believe classifies as saving, in terms of how they calculate it, but if anyone knows otherwise feel free to chime in. Either way they actually calculate it, it effectively is saving. What matters is that you are changing your net creditor/debtor position positively.

In terms of home equity falling, i think you may be confusing the savings rate with total wealth. The savings rate is a measure of how much people earn vs. spend in a given period. Total wealth, which includes the value of homes, is not a rate of change, it's simply an aggregate number. So you could have the savings rate increasing, but total wealth still falling if say losses on home values outpace any additional savings each period.

As per the savings rate being a flawed metric, in regards to a commentor above, yes I see what you are saying. I agree some of the long-term down trend in the savings rate may have been illusory, ie. due to people socking their wealth away in different ways not captured in the math. The near term shifts in savings rate are still useful though I feel.

BDI Speculation: Beware the Unwinding of Inventory Build / Congestion

There are, they are called FFA's, you can visit the site for Imarex to see more. Also, a lot of people unfortunately trade shipping stocks based on BDI movements since it will have a huge impact on dry bulk shipping companies' earnings. You can try to justify a certain stock price by assuming certain future rate levels.

Search Engine Wars: Bing Gets More 'Eye Time' than Google

I believe there is some value to the study. Again note I highlighted from the get-go that it wasn't statistically significant... but there is such a thing as anecdotal data. Especially when it comes to usability testing. That's all it is. This isn't a drug trial. If you build a new type of couch and ask 12 friends to sit in it and tell you what they think, it isn't completely worthless data. This was a usability study, done by a pretty established firm, and we didn't claim it was anything more than anecdotal. But fair enough, perhaps I took a usability study and portrayed it as an opinion poll, which was a bit wrong. But again.. i just thought the anecdotal data was interesting and posted it on my personal site (/www.researchreloaded.com).

Conversion of Citi's Preferred Shares Could Bring Stock Down Temporarily

Interesting point in regards to the arb, that hadn't occurred to me, so yes maybe some of the selling pressure will be mitigated by such players who have complementary short positions in citi shares.

Have We Forgotten That Savings Is a Good Thing?

Yes good point, in terms of the difference between spending money you have saved vs. spending borrowed money. And yes differentiating smart spending from wasteful is pretty tough, i don't think anyone really could do so for others, and even in our own lives it can be hard to tell when our own spending is worthwhile. I don't think anyone should be allowed to judge whether another's spending decisions are smart or wasteful.

Still, despite the difficulty in separating the two, my point was to simply make the distinction between the two types of spending because it makes us realize that not all spending is good for the economy. Going further than this, and trying to judge which spending is smart or wasteful, is not something i try to do here.

Search Engine Wars: Bing Gets More 'Eye Time' than Google

In response to the small sample size, note I highlighted this in the second sentence of the piece. We know this data is not statistically significant, but it is interesting nonetheless, especially in regards to the eye tracking data.

The 'De-Branding' of Merrill: BofA Drops the Bull on Its Own Foot

User 437050, sorry but you are incorrect: "The revamp, created by The Brand Union, will be backed by an international ad campaign for its global commercial, corporate and investment banking businesses. "
www.marketingmagazine..../

"Bank of America Merrill Lynch is one of Bank of America's three major businesses, providing broad financial services to mid-market, corporate and institutional clients."
www.thebrandunion.com/...

Note investment banking above, for example. Merrill was clearly way ahead of BofA, yet this is part of the rebrand. Actually for most businesses internationally ML would be ahead of BoA, yet they are in the rebrand. So I'm not sure what business you are referring to, when you say that the old ML brand will live on. Unless many outside sources are wrong, it's basically all being rebranded to the logo above.

Gannett, McClatchy Face Stubborn Bondholders: A Creative Solution

The CDS sellers would want to keep Gannett and McClatchy from defaulting, since if they default the sellers will have to pay the CDS buyers 100 cents on the dollar for Gannett and McClatchy bonds (which will be worth much less than 100 cents on the dollar... note McClatchy tried to buy back its bonds at 33 cents on the dollar). Thus go to the sellers and see if they can help keep these companies from defaulting. If the selllers were banks, then perhaps they can provide loans so that Gannett and McClatchy can pay back bonds as they mature and stay out of default. In this situation the CDS sellers provide a loan for 100 cents on the dollar rather than simply paying out a loss of 100 cents on the dollar. This is a much better proposition.

As to whether other newspapers have a problem it depends on what % of their bondholders have CDS protection.

The 'De-Branding' of Merrill: BofA Drops the Bull on Its Own Foot

We realize that a lot of people are still there. But they have dropped the brand from much of what they do. My understanding, at this point, which fair enough could be wrong, is that they will continue to use the old brand for the US retail broking. Note I mention this in the piece and compare it to what Citi did with Smith Barney. But I also point out that the Smith Barney brand was diluted... it became just a gimmick for the retail guys... institutional broking dropped the brand. As I understand it, Merrill is doing the same thing. This strategy made Smith Barney a retail broking (which is a joke for professionals) gimmick. If BAC does the same, then the Merrill brand will be relegated to a similar position. Again, I could be wrong, but as I understand it, they are dropping the old ML brand from institutional broking, investment banking etc... and only keeping it for US retail broking.

The FDA vs. Science on Merck HPV Vaccine

Allowing the vaccine to be marketed and sold is allowing the market to decide. And... real evidence? The CDC concluded the vaccine was safe as linked in the article above. That's a fact, a hard science fact based on an extensive study of real evidence.

Versus this actual science you provide a link to some letter you wrote which cherry picks a few sources and call it better evidence that the CDC's actual study? Do you realize how rigorous real science is as compared to the kind of analysis in your piece, or even the kind of analysis we do here in the blogosphere?

The 'De-Branding' of Merrill: BofA Drops the Bull on Its Own Foot

The company lived up to its rep in most of what it did. Like with most financial companies hit by the crisis, one unit essentially took down the entire company despite most businesses within Merrill doing very well. Again, note we acknowledged that the brand took a hit from the crisis. But it takes a lot more to destroy a well established brand. The name still pulled a lot more respect in finance than Bank of America. Again... especially abroad.