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Vine Investor

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  • Time To Dip Your Toe Into Russian Shares [View article]
    I was thinking of potential plays as hedges to building position in Russian equities and thought of a short Euro play, perhaps to the Dollar or Yen for the most volatility. Should tensions escalate and result in sanctions by the EU it could be the catalyst for the region to move back into recession. If not the EUR is still causing a threat to the region with its strength. Though the ECB didn't feel that a rate cut was needed at this meeting (resulting in a further spike in the Euro), if disinflationary pressures worsen the ECB will have to implement stimulative measures, weakening the currency in the process. Perhaps this is getting too ahead of myself on the central bank topic, but as a shorter term trade the EUR/JPY would be a mover in the event of more escalations.
    Mar 6 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Downside To The Euro [View article]
    My logic tells me yes. There are many signs pointing to a positive rally in Gold, Currency debasement in many developed economies, the signs of a global slowdown, and recent shocks to the Euro crisis. But reality is telling a different story, quite the opposite. Gold has been falling fast, with last week seeing it break through $1,500. I am not a big technical indicator follower but I believe there is more downside in the near term, mostly due to Japan. After the blow by the BOJ pledging to double their balance sheet and stoke inflation or good, many market makers starter to anticipate the rush by Japanese investors to yield. Long story short, there is no yield in Gold. I welcome the dumping on the yellow metal and will be looking to buy some once these anticipated Japanese investors start realizing that a low to no yielding government bond (or gold) is a pretty calculable bet when the higher yielding Euro bonds start to shake again. Also when (I am through with if) the ECB starts to play in the stimulus game in earnest, there will be few currencies with ample liquidity that will be rising in value so gold may be back in vogue, but I agree this will not be till September.
    Apr 14 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ECB Moves And Gold's Correlation [View article]
    It is difficult to tell so I usually don't like to pick specific price targets. As far as the trend is concerned, to remain bullish I look at the amount of money the central banks of the US and Europe will need to pump into the markets and inflation as a result. Risks to the downside for gold would have to include large downward moves in the market place (where leveraged investors may sell gold to pay back margins in a given currency) and relative calm in the markets, where investors will not want to forgo the opportunity costs associated with a non yielding asset.
    Sep 16 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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