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Vinny Catalano  

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  • Today May Be the Day: The Respite Before the Chaos [View article]
    To all readers, please note that this article was originally posted on my blog on Tuesday morning around 11 AM.

    Vinny Catalano
    Jun 10, 2010. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Season Is the Reason... [View article]
    That is correct.
    Apr 8, 2010. 04:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Season Is the Reason... [View article]

    Internally generated cash flows of businesses are at record levels. Moreover, their debt levels are very low. This is in opposition to the state of the US consumer and the US government (also most municipalities within the US, including many states).

    Apr 8, 2010. 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Of Fear and Financials [View article]
    This is something that my three amigos seems to have missed - the full blown panic phase may not be upon us.

    As I commented on back on May 12th ("The Economy is Spelled with a W"), an economic double dip in 2009 (most likely the second half) is my highest probability US economy call. That means that a stock market decline anticipating the double dip may not occur until we are in the new year.

    If so, then the mini panic we are experiencing right now along with the fact that corporate earnings are still more than decent (aided by global growth, mostly from emerging markets) plus the valuation levels are more than reasonable (unless you believe in the Bad or Terrible scenarios I outlined last week - "The Looming Valuation Adjustment Process") might be the rationale for the high cash levels (including those at hedge funds) coupled with very negative investor sentiment readings to = a stock market that most likely surprise to the upside this fall.

    If this occurs, then those sectors and industries that are exhibiting the best relative strength should lead the way up.

    This is what a contrarian like me must do to buy low in the expectation of selling high.
    Sep 10, 2008. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why To Take the Rally With a Grain of Salt [View article]
    My apologies PDL27 but the SA posting (which is not done by me) should have noted that access to the chart requires being a subscriber to my newsletter.

    For further info on this, please visit vinnycatalano.blogspot...
    Aug 13, 2008. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bargain-Hunting Hedgies and CEOs Poised to Bring Closure to Credit Woes [View article]
    I appreciate the comments.

    Allow me to clarify a few points.

    To begin, you have to read this blog posting and the day before (on Sarbox) to get a more complete picture of what I am trying to articulate. I don't disagree that the hedgies, private equity, and others do not have the wherewithal (even with 4 times leverage) to clean up the mess. But what they can and will do is provide a cushion for any sustained decline and, I believe, once most of the bad news is out (by 1Q08) the conditions will be set for the last hurrah for the bull.

    That said, I like the pessimism expressed in some of the comments. Only makes me more convinced of the bull reasserting itself into 2008, preceded by a solid year end rally.

    By the way, the technicals of the market are lining up for another upside move. For that you need to read my Technical Thursdays posting on my blog.
    Nov 16, 2007. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Reveals Surprising Information about Hedge Funds [View article]

    And I appreciate your comments.
    Nov 15, 2007. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sectors in the Thematic Spotlight [View article]
    I'm puzzled, Uncle Bill. Isn't it better to first know what someone has said, the logic that went into what was said, and how those ideas performed before deciding on how good someone might be based on the incomplete nature of an individual blog posting? And wouldn't that then give you sufficient information and knowledge to evaluate the current comments made and how what is currently being said fits into a consistent yet evolving view?

    If so, then go to my blog and read my prior postings THEN read the current ones. If not, that's cool - I'm not your guy.
    Sep 30, 2007. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke Blinks - And Suffers Credibility Hit [View article]
    I agree with your comments re the US dollar, US esteem, and inflation, StreetSweeper.

    Re my political leanings, wrong guess.

    Sep 30, 2007. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sectors in the Thematic Spotlight [View article]
    I appreciate your comments, Uncle Bill. Here are a few thoughts for you to consider:

    To begin, no one commentary is all-inclusive. Unless it is an extensive research report, brief comments such as this one should be part of an ongoing dialogue. Therefore, to understand a point of view re any complex subject, requires that a person take the time to understand the methodology used and conclusions reached by reading most of the prior comments. Otherwise, the ideas and opinions are little more than in the moment, hot ideas that lack context and meaning.

    As for the specifics of the commentary you refer to, the main thrust of the piece is to rebut the steady, seemingly unrelenting current media diet of macro news, which is both yesterday’s and, as it relates to GM, irrelevant, and to point out that it is time to focus on the micro areas, the sectors, of the market and the economy. It was also a comment on the thematic nature of the performance of the various sectors. Thematic analysis is a central part of my core investment strategy, whereas most investors do not invest based on themes. The point in this commentary was to bring to the attention of investors that themes matter and can help identify what to buy, what to avoid, and why.

    Now, if you are able and interested in taking the time to go to my blog, you will see that I have stated very specific opinions about most of the sectors I note in this commentary. For example, the toxic areas – Financials and Consumer Discretionary – have been written about numerous times. As has the favored areas of Industrials and Info Tech. I have also written extensively on the underlying macro forces affecting all sectors.

    Overall, I am trying to describe a core investment principle that most professional investors know, yet few individual investors seem to understand – the mosaic approach. To understand this principle, please visit my blog entry on the Blind Men and the Elephant:

    Hope this helps.

    Sep 30, 2007. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment