Vishaal B. Bhuyan - Seeking Alpha 'Vishaal B. Bhuyan' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/vishaal-b-bhuyan Incorrect Unemployment Metrics http://seekingalpha.com/article/147373-incorrect-unemployment-metrics?source=feed 147373 Market participants, as well as the broader economy, take cues from the U-3 “official” unemployment rate which currently stands at 9.5%. This metric is an inaccurate gauge of the labor markets however, as U-3 does not account for marginally attached workers, discouraged workers, and the number of part-time employees.

  • Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.
  • Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.
  • Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

The data that should be used is the U-6 number which incorporates these substantial groups of Americans. According to U-6 data, the true unemployment rate is currently hovering around 16.5% (a seven percentage point difference!). Unfortunately, some believe that even the U-6 estimate is inaccurate as U-6 does not reflect all of the discouraged workers in the country. These analysts peg “real” unemployment over 20%.

]]> Tue, 07 Jul 2009 08:39:04 -0400 Vishaal B. Bhuyan Market participants, as well as the broader economy, take cues from the U-3 “official” unemployment rate which currently stands at 9.5%. This metric is an inaccurate gauge of the labor markets however, as U-3 does not account for marginally attached workers, discouraged workers, and the number of part-time employees.

  • Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.
  • Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.
  • Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

The data that should be used is the U-6 number which incorporates these substantial groups of Americans. According to U-6 data, the true unemployment rate is currently hovering around 16.5% (a seven percentage point difference!). Unfortunately, some believe that even the U-6 estimate is inaccurate as U-6 does not reflect all of the discouraged workers in the country. These analysts peg “real” unemployment over 20%.


Complete Story »]]> Vishaal B. Bhuyan How to Invest in the Coming Demographic Shift http://seekingalpha.com/article/145924-how-to-invest-in-the-coming-demographic-shift?source=feed 145924 I believe that given a large enough sample size, the past is the best indicator of the future. From credit expansion and collapse to global terrorism, the human race has experienced almost everything in some form.

However, there is a new and unprecedented phenomenon. The world is rapidly aging, and in the 21st century populations will age more rapidly than ever before. This demographic shift will take place throughout most of the developed world resulting in sizeable reductions in labor forces, thus triggering mass immigration. Moreover, this demographic shift will further weaken global pension programs due to mortality improvements and a decrease in the number of current workers to beneficiaries. Aging will also generate a number of opportunities for investors such as a massive boom in the healthcare sector and give rise to reverse equity transactions and global longevity risk markets.

]]> Mon, 29 Jun 2009 06:10:19 -0400 Vishaal B. Bhuyan I believe that given a large enough sample size, the past is the best indicator of the future. From credit expansion and collapse to global terrorism, the human race has experienced almost everything in some form.

However, there is a new and unprecedented phenomenon. The world is rapidly aging, and in the 21st century populations will age more rapidly than ever before. This demographic shift will take place throughout most of the developed world resulting in sizeable reductions in labor forces, thus triggering mass immigration. Moreover, this demographic shift will further weaken global pension programs due to mortality improvements and a decrease in the number of current workers to beneficiaries. Aging will also generate a number of opportunities for investors such as a massive boom in the healthcare sector and give rise to reverse equity transactions and global longevity risk markets.


Complete Story »]]> IYH LPHI Vishaal B. Bhuyan