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Vishal Doshi  

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  • AMD Lowers Revenue Guidance For Q2: The Reasons 2015 Will Be Bad [View article]
    I think of AMD as a long dated call option. It's could double or it could go to zero. But it's got a couple of years life before it expires.

    The one thing that gives me some hope is that Apple has been using AMD everywhere and Apple is not that price sensitive. For example the MacBook Pro and the Mac Pro both use AMD GPUs. Perhaps that means AMD GPUs can compete if they have the right software stack? Also both Microsoft and Sony chose AMD, but that may be mainly driven by price instead of performance.

    I am long and think this is a good time to buy some more.
    Jul 7, 2015. 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com: Here's How Much Drone Deliveries Would Cost Per Delivery [View article]
    Good analysis as usual Paulo.

    AMZN (short) is a good way to hedge any future increase in rates. :) what do you think?

    Disclosure: Short AMZN (via short calls).
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surface 3 And Apple Watch - Red Oceans Vs. Blue Oceans [View article]
    Surface Pro 3 is piece of crap. It's got an Atom CPU (markedly not premium) in a tablet that's trying to be premium. Made from magnesium alloy and other premium materials. It's real competition is the core-m based macbook which is 2.5x the price and will totally cream it in performance, resolution, apps and usability. I am betting it will cream the Surface 3 in sales too. Disclosure: short msft, from before Nadella, so I'm in it for the long term. Long aapl, also from years. Putting my money where my mouth is.
    Apr 3, 2015. 03:01 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon's Dash Button Will Flop [View article]
    /Agree with you Paulo.

    Even in the (IMHO) very unlikely case that these devices do work out, I think smartwatches would provide a much better experience for the 'dash' use case. If there is really enough demand for the use-case, Apple will make the money methinks.

    Think of a Watch App with iBeacon (like Estimote, http://estimote.com). No need for WiFi on the 'dash button' itself, just the watch needs to be connected. And the watch of-course has a display. So the watch would know, based on the beacon, what it is you want order, can show you the product (or closely related products, like say fabric conditioner), can show you prices and is already connected and has your Apple pay (or Samsung or whatever pay) information already loaded.
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside Apple: MacBooks Now, iPads Later? [View article]
    A mix of strategies that result in net negative delta. I try to be long theta and vega when I can.
    Mar 11, 2015. 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside Apple: MacBooks Now, iPads Later? [View article]
    I feel your pain though I am on the other side (short INTC). Painfully watching INTC rise. However, I still think that my short thesis is valid.

    PC's which make up ~65% of Intel's income: the market is either flat or in decline depending on whom you believe. A lot depends on $MSFT getting it's act together with Win 10, but overall I still think the market for non-Apple laptops is firmly in decline. Core-M despite being 14nm (and therefore very expensive, which perhaps explains why the new MacBook is more expensive than the Air) is not that much faster than say the ARM ISA based A8x. The Tegra X1 is about twice as fast as the K1, which was the same generation as the A8. So I suspect that the A9 will be twice as fast as the A8, putting it in the same performance class as the Core-M. It will not have binary compatibility with the millions of x86 drivers and apps but that could change. I don't see a dramatic growth here, though I do see credible threats.

    Servers': This is where I think new market disruption will happen. It's a matter on time before ARM based chips enter the server space. Not for another year, perhaps two, but it will happen. Facebook, Google and other large data-center operators have explored and continue to explore alternatives to $INTC.

    Mobile: This is INTC's weakest spot. Given that Apple/Samsung (~70-80% of the high-end phone market?) are not going to use $INTC mobile chips in the near future, I don't think INTC has a hope. Both Samsung and Apple have in-house teams that build their own CPUs. Tablets? Not as big as mobile, but again, who sell the bulk of premium tablets? Apple that's who - and they're not switching from the 'A' series CPUs in the near future. Low-end? there may be some scope here, but INTC's margins are just too fat (and it cannot realistically lower them).
    Mar 11, 2015. 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Many $BBRY Users Are Switching To IOS/Android? [View instapost]
    Yep, Mar 28 is going to be very interesting:

    I think:

    1) If the numbers are bad - $BBRY will go down in flames. It's game over. 30% chance?

    2) If the numbers are good - it's only a temporary respite, it's not enough to signal a new trend - 70% chance?

    I'm still holding my short, hope I can stay afloat even if the numbers are good and there's a big pop to say 18/19.

    It's looking a little bleak; what do you think? Any opinion on the Lenovo rumours?
    Mar 12, 2013. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Is Tim Cook The Next Steve Ballmer? [View article]
    Hey,

    I found your article very thought-provoking. Interesting comparison. Hrmmm... (I'm long $AAPL, btw).

    I suppose the most obvious difference - as you pointed out - is the difference in P/E ratios. Perhaps this has to do with perceived stickiness of earnings... $MSFT had a near monopoly at it's peak, with a distinct majority of all computers using their software and no immediate competitors. $APPL is much more vulnerable -- Android has a bigger marketshare than iOS. And there's a bunch of new challengers - like BB10 and Win8. All of which suggests that the market perceives $AAPL future earnings as a much riskier proposition (even today) compared to $MSFT's future earnings.

    I think this difference in marketshare can go both ways -- still a lot of room for growth / still a lot of risk :)

    Thanks for your article though, interesting, thought-provoking perspective.
    Feb 21, 2013. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CFO Resignation And Intel Warning Are Irrelevant: Buy AMD [View article]
    AMD's Brazos platform is nothing like Haswell. Even assuming that it has better performance (I have not yet googled for benchmarks), it looks like it has worse performance/watt which is what IMHO really matters in the post-PC, tablet space.

    The bottom end of the Haswell range is rumored to have a 10W TDP (still very high) while the Brazos has a an 18W TDP (http://bit.ly/SpLOOJ).

    New Lenovo, HPQ tablets all seem to be based either around ARM chips (Win RT) or INTC Atom (Win 8 full). I figure that's cuz AMD does not match performance/watt with INTC.

    Do you know of any tablet manufacturers (Asus, Acer perhaps?) who are considering Brazos chips?
    Sep 24, 2012. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's A6 Is A Custom Design: What Does This Mean For Investors? [View article]
    As per the AnandTech article, Apple currently licenses the ARMv7 instruction set, but not the reference CPU design, choosing instead to make their own CPU.

    My big fear (being short AMD) is that Apple could buy AMD as a means of cheaply licensing/purchasing x86 development rights. They don't have enough volume to justify such as move (in the desktop/server) market at the moment, but could that change with an AMD purchase?
    Sep 18, 2012. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Nokia/Microsoft Blundered Today's Lumia Launch [View article]
    There was nothing about how the Lumia integrates with Surface/Win8. Why not?

    How do you differentiate between Win7/Win8 phones? They looked the same to me, but they're clearly not software wise. Win7 phones can't run Win8 apps.

    How is Lumia better'n Samsung/HTC Win8 phones? I mean MSFT is not down (much) today.

    Isn't India a very important market for $NOK? Android's announced voice navigation for India, bet ya anything $NOK won't have voice nav.
    Sep 5, 2012. 05:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Windows 8 Bad For Gamers, Or Just For Steam? [View article]
    I wonder if this has something to do with Microsoft's Game Center competing with Steam (which is a delivery/distribution mechanism)...

    Windows users can download games straight from Microsoft's Store on PC, XBox, Windows Phone etc... no need for Steam!
    Jul 30, 2012. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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