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Vision Capital M.

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  • Risk And Reward Analysis Of Apple's Stock [View article]
    Hello and thanks for your comment.

    You may want to check these - http://bit.ly/1mV2Q3H or http://bit.ly/1mV2Q3J

    In my view the mean reversion of prices/returns is mostly connected with monthly returns regarded as discrete variables which in a short-term realm are to some extent dependent on the previous returns (due the forces of group behavior) but on long term are greatly independent on each other. Thus, the monthly returns tend to be concentrated near the mean values (which is shown by the distribution histogram above) and extreme returns are clearly outliers which are not to be expected to continue uninterrupted for a long time.

    Regards.
    Mar 2 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUR/USD: The Week Ahead [View article]
    I agree but it could be more useful in case the long term direction of the euro turns south. This week could show most of the cards the players hold...
    Dec 16 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUR/USD: The Week Ahead [View article]
    I wouldn't be so sure but in short-term - yes. Yesterday the USD was stopped exactly at the WMA30 on the daily. We could see some retracement from there but generally still there is possibility for more dollar gains.
    Dec 3 03:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUR/USD: The Week Ahead [View article]
    Gius, thank you for your question.

    In fact, during the week a significant amount of European and Germany data came out lower than expected. Examples are European business climate, Germany CPI , HICP and unemployment change. As for the decline of the euro in the last days of the week, I believe the Mr. Draghi's comments on the possibility of a negative deposit rate increased the chances of an increase of the supply of euro, and respectively may have hit the demand for the single currency. The lower main refinancing interest rate (0.50%) also lowered the euro positive interest rate differential... So the relative strength seemed to be on the USD side.
    May 4 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUR/USD: The Week Ahead [View article]
    Thank you, BahramFX. I am glad I could help.
    Apr 29 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUR/USD: The Week Ahead [View article]
    Thanks for your comment, Brian Bobbitt.

    I will allow myself to write a bit longer comment. Hope you do not mind.

    In fact, yes.. In my opinion the EUR/USD rate is currently around threshold moments, levels, etc., so no greater degree of certainty could be given to either an up or a down direction.
    Generally, I think only the great setups deserve to be traded. Currently I do not see one here. Hence, sometimes staying out of the market could be the best think to do. But if I know why I am staying out of the market, it gives me the foundation to get in once the conditions change. And articles which say that something might go up or down are doing just that - telling me the uncertainty is elevated.

    Regards.
    Apr 29 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUR/USD: The Week Ahead [View article]
    Of course, the level was $1.3040/60. Thank you arc001, for pointing this out.
    Apr 22 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk And Reward Analysis Of 5 Dividend Stocks - Part III: Procter & Gamble In Focus [View article]
    I would like to thank you all for your comments. It is nice to see all the efforts are worthy and considered helpful. Appreciated.
    Feb 14 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUR/USD: The Week Ahead [View article]
    I think you are right. The warning sign I could see is that the current levels are oscillating around the SMA200 which could serve a resistance at first. The value is also outside the Bollinger band and the Stochastic is in the overbought area. But maybe this tension was resolved with the volatile movement on Monday. We will see...

    Regards and thanks for your comment.
    Feb 5 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk And Reward Analysis Of 5 Common Dividend Stocks - Part I [View article]
    Thank you all for your comments! Much appreciated.

    The second article of the series is now online so here is the link for the interested - http://seekingalpha.co...

    It covers Coca Cola. It also includes a comparison with JNJ on some of the topics.

    Regards,
    Emil
    Dec 11 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk And Reward Analysis Of 5 Common Dividend Stocks - Part I [View article]
    Thanks. It is my pleasure.
    Dec 1 04:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The SNB Make A Profit On Currency Reserves? [View article]
    In fact through the current crisis many central banks are diversifying their reserves and basically trying to move away from highly concentrated U.S dollar reserves. This further increases the supply of USD and demand for other assets, most of which are priced in USD, so in general their prices grow. I have to check the most recent data to see if there is any change in this tendency but I doubt there will be.
    In a long term given the process continues long enough, the U.S. might be forced to take measures to increase the attractiveness of their currency because of the lesser demand. Which leads us to some scenarios like hiking the price of gold some ten (or so) folds from now to match the available USD money base and then using it as a stability point, a theory which was examined by the Guggenheim's CIO in this article - http://bit.ly/Rv2srE. Whether it would be gold or some other asset to be used as a reference point is about to be seen. But the central banks accumulating reserves different from the USD (euro in the SNB case) and USD denominated assets can hardly be neglected.
    Nov 1 07:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Return To Bretton Woods: Economic and Investment Implications [View article]
    Thanks for the article. It was an interesting reading.

    I see that $12000 figure for a second time... The first one was when John Butler, head of Amphora Commodities Alpha fund, spoke about his ideas about the re-monetarization of gold he expects. I find other similarities between the ideas of you both, like as far as I remember, he also agreed that setting a certain value of exchange rate of gold against USD is among the ways the U.S. officials could use to "restore confidence in the value of the dollar if its ultimate role as a reserve currency were to be challenged".

    Intrigued by his views, I examined the matter and found out the recently proposed regulatory changes by the FDIC in the risk weighting of gold are also interesting and could be a step to what you both are referring to. My view on those changes could be found here - http://seekingalpha.co...

    Basically the idea of using a common good (which is not controlled by a single country, as is the case with the USD) as a point of gravity does not seem so illogical.
    Oct 31 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 51% Annualized Return With BAC [View article]
    Nice play although I believe the money you are paying on the call spread should be $2.10 and not $2.20. Thus you at the current (as of 10/28/2012) price of $9.12 you are already breaking even.
    Oct 29 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUR/USD: The Week Ahead [View article]
    Hi Goeleven.

    Thanks for your comment but are you sure it is intended for this article and not for the Ford's one - http://seekingalpha.co... ?

    Regards,
    Emil
    Oct 23 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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