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Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA

 
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  • Another Confirmation of China's Not-So-Miracle Growth [View article]
    Dear Tony,

    China did not suddenly become energy efficient in two quarters (first and second quarters of 2009), coincidently at the same time when global economy went into recession and its exports collapsed. The same was as it did not suddenly turn energy inefficient in the third quarter of 2009 when its massive stimulus packaged kicked in.

    I have no reason to hate China and I DON’T hate China. I am an investor who is looking at investing landscape and trying to identify risks.

    Vitaliy
    Sep 2, 2009. 11:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markel: A Compounding Machine At A Cheap Price [View article]
    Very good article. Wish @seekingalpha had more of these - $MKL is one special company
    Apr 5, 2014. 07:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Welcome to Another Lost Decade [View article]
    David, you can find my presentations here: contrarianedge.com/boo.../
    Jan 8, 2010. 10:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Confirmation of China's Not-So-Miracle Growth [View article]
    Alright, I have to reply to this.
    Sep 2, 2009. 11:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: Exactly Where Japan Was in the 1980s? [View article]
    You are missing the point: I am not saying China is Japan, not at all. There are plenty of differences. What I am saying is they both are/were in a bubble, and describing a psychological similarities i.e. China (like Japan in 1980s) could do nothing wrong.
    Aug 24, 2009. 05:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shiller PE Continues To Mislead Investors, S&P 500 Is Fairly Valued In Early 2013 [View article]
    Chuck, you are partially right but your conclusion is wrong. Over the last 100+ years 10 year trailing P/E was higher than average 1 year trailing P/E. Average 10 year P/E was 18 and average 1 year trailing P/E was 15.

    Your reasoning why it was higher is right. As economy grows, earnings grow and therefore average E over a 10 year period will (in general) be lower than average E over a 1 year period. So yes, comparing 10 year and 1 year P/Es is not unlike comparing apples and oranges.

    But I don't really know anyone who compares 10 year and 1 year P/Es. Any point on 10 year P/E spectrum should be compared to the 10 year mean. For instance, today stocks are trading at 24x 10 year earnings, they are trading at 32% above average (of 18x). See slides 15-17 on this presentation

    http://bit.ly/10zi0nP

    Hopefully this helped. Vitaliy
    Jan 16, 2013. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Welcome to Another Lost Decade [View article]
    David, to your comments what to do about it. You are right my suggestions at the bottom of the article are very general. But I dedicated 200 plus pages in the book on exactly the topic of "what to do".
    Jan 8, 2010. 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: High Quality at a Bargain Price [View article]
    ArtfulDodger:

    As of Jan 29, 2011:
    Cash And Cash Equivalents 4,924,000
    Short Term Investments 35,305,000

    Short/Current Long Term Debt 3,089,000
    Long Term Debt 12,152,000
    May 28, 2011. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Not Dr. Doom; Call Me Mr. Realist [View article]
    @king707 I don't this website... I'll upload updated presentation on range-bound markets on my website contrarianedge.com/pre... very soon. It will have P/Es there.
    Feb 25, 2010. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Simple Math of 'Staggering' Chinese Growth [View article]
    Authors Note: I made a mistake with some of my assumptions in this article, I've corrected it in this artice "China's Staggering Growth: Reappraising My Original Position"
    Jul 30, 2009. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Chrysler's Bankruptcy Plan Threatens Our Markets [View article]
    important correction: I mean to say "I DON'T see justification"
    May 13, 2009. 11:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Chrysler's Bankruptcy Plan Threatens Our Markets [View article]
    Osterix, politics is very partisan, thus discussions about it are not rational. With everything you said I do see justification for giving company away to unions. Mr. President did not have to do that.
    May 13, 2009. 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jos. A. Banks Tailored to Suit the Times [View article]
    Here is a working link to the Value Investing Congress presentation on JOSB contrarianedge.com/wp-...
    Dec 6, 2008. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China and Starbucks' Late Stage Growth Obesity [View article]
    Yeah, I forgot to take out Singapore... I put it in the draft, knowing it was wrong and forgot to replace it with another country. Like Philippines etc...
    Aug 25, 2008. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be a Myth Buster ('Active Value Investing' Book Excerpt) [View article]
    The following is excerpt from Active Value Investing preface:

    "I wrote this book for skeptics who look for opportunity but have a healthy dose of ‘‘the glass is half empty’’ mentality and a great passion for investing. Whether you are an ‘‘I’d rather do it myself, damn it!’’ investing weekend warrior or an ‘‘I do it 12 hours a day and eat lunch at my desk—I love this job!’’ professional investor (the latter category is where I fit in), you should find this book worthwhile."

    The book's preface online should tell you a lot about the book contrarianedge.com/boo...
    Jan 12, 2008. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
18 Comments
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