Vlada Kynsky - Seeking Alpha 'Vlada Kynsky' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/vlada-kynsky Platinum as an Investment Metal http://seekingalpha.com/article/172540-platinum-as-an-investment-metal?source=feed 172540 platinumPlatinum is a good alternative for investing in precious metals, despite the fact that it is not as popular an investment as gold or silver.

Platinum is used in consumer and industrial products, including jewelry and industrial production. In fact, most platinum is used by the automotive industry in the production of catalytic converters. Therefore, compared to investing in gold, platinum can serve as a bet on the rebound in the auto industry. Platinum is more volatile than gold, so, generally speaking, platinum and silver are better investments than gold during periods of economic strength, while gold is safer play during times of turmoil and uncertainty.

]]> Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:39:37 -0500 Vlada Kynsky platinumPlatinum is a good alternative for investing in precious metals, despite the fact that it is not as popular an investment as gold or silver.

Platinum is used in consumer and industrial products, including jewelry and industrial production. In fact, most platinum is used by the automotive industry in the production of catalytic converters. Therefore, compared to investing in gold, platinum can serve as a bet on the rebound in the auto industry. Platinum is more volatile than gold, so, generally speaking, platinum and silver are better investments than gold during periods of economic strength, while gold is safer play during times of turmoil and uncertainty.


Complete Story »]]> PGM PTM PTD AGPPY.PK IMPUY.PK Vlada Kynsky Investing in Gold Now http://seekingalpha.com/article/168467-investing-in-gold-now?source=feed 168467 After gold prices crossed above the psychological level of $1000, the target price for gold became a very popular topic on the markets. Jim Rogers predicts gold prices to go even to $2000. Some of latest analysis from Adam Hewison about gold:

In the first video Adam provides some mid and long term analysis for the US dollar, S&P 500 and gold.

]]> Fri, 23 Oct 2009 05:46:31 -0400 Vlada Kynsky After gold prices crossed above the psychological level of $1000, the target price for gold became a very popular topic on the markets. Jim Rogers predicts gold prices to go even to $2000. Some of latest analysis from Adam Hewison about gold:

In the first video Adam provides some mid and long term analysis for the US dollar, S&P 500 and gold.


Complete Story »]]> GLD IAU Vlada Kynsky The Short and Long Term Outlook for Gold, Silver http://seekingalpha.com/article/162710-the-short-and-long-term-outlook-for-gold-silver?source=feed 162710 In order to determine the relative value of gold and silver, we can put both commodities in ratio. It was the lowest in the last century at 14, compared to current levels around 70. This would suggest that gold is currently overvalued.

Since 1980, the ratio of the price of gold/silver ranged between 30 and 100 and the average was 65. Last time it reached 100 was in 199 after Iraq's invasion in Kuwait, which raised concerns about rising oil prices that could lead to rising inflation. Gold will serve as financial security.

]]> Tue, 22 Sep 2009 07:03:23 -0400 Vlada Kynsky In order to determine the relative value of gold and silver, we can put both commodities in ratio. It was the lowest in the last century at 14, compared to current levels around 70. This would suggest that gold is currently overvalued.

Since 1980, the ratio of the price of gold/silver ranged between 30 and 100 and the average was 65. Last time it reached 100 was in 199 after Iraq's invasion in Kuwait, which raised concerns about rising oil prices that could lead to rising inflation. Gold will serve as financial security.


Complete Story »]]> GLD DGL GDX IAU DBS SLV Vlada Kynsky Global Leaders and Laggards http://seekingalpha.com/article/147124-global-leaders-and-laggards?source=feed 147124 Right now we are in the middle of 2009, the year when most global stock markets are in recession. We are just about to kick off next releases for earnings season Q2. It is the right time to have a look to the performance of stock markets' indexes around the world and current valuations.

Since March 2009 we could see the rally but recently there are some signs of correction. Generally, the first half of 2009 was strong especially outside the US and other developed markets. Emerging markets end it around 35% up YTD vs. developed markets up almost 10%.

]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 08:04:56 -0400 Vlada Kynsky Right now we are in the middle of 2009, the year when most global stock markets are in recession. We are just about to kick off next releases for earnings season Q2. It is the right time to have a look to the performance of stock markets' indexes around the world and current valuations.

Since March 2009 we could see the rally but recently there are some signs of correction. Generally, the first half of 2009 was strong especially outside the US and other developed markets. Emerging markets end it around 35% up YTD vs. developed markets up almost 10%.


Complete Story »]]> Vlada Kynsky Ten Best Performing Commodities ETFs http://seekingalpha.com/article/144567-ten-best-performing-commodities-etfs?source=feed 144567 The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity index, a global commodities benchmark, is tracking 19 kinds of commodities, which are mainly traded in the U.S. This index surpassed the performance of the S&P 500 index this year, 10.24% vs. 3.16%.

The recent rally in commodities has been pushed by the weakening dollar, as well as increasing confidence in the economy recovery. These facts clearly resulted in increased demand and higher prices for commodity contracts.

]]> Mon, 22 Jun 2009 07:39:11 -0400 Vlada Kynsky The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity index, a global commodities benchmark, is tracking 19 kinds of commodities, which are mainly traded in the U.S. This index surpassed the performance of the S&P 500 index this year, 10.24% vs. 3.16%.

The recent rally in commodities has been pushed by the weakening dollar, as well as increasing confidence in the economy recovery. These facts clearly resulted in increased demand and higher prices for commodity contracts.


Complete Story »]]> UGA DBB PXJ MOO SLV SGG JO DBA UHN JJN Vlada Kynsky Growth Outlook for Central Europe http://seekingalpha.com/article/136927-growth-outlook-for-central-europe?source=feed 136927 This year Czech and Slovak economies will probably fall about 3.5 percent, according to the latest estimate from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). In January the bank expected that the Czech economy would stagnate this year and the Slovak economy increase by 2.5 percent. Czech National Bank in a new forecast is expecting that the Czech economy will fall by 2.4 percent.

At the same time, the EBRD said that gross domestic product in emerging European economies will fall by 5.2 percent. The January estimate calculated an increase of 0.1 percent following last year's growth by 4.2 percent.

]]> Mon, 11 May 2009 11:37:58 -0400 Vlada Kynsky This year Czech and Slovak economies will probably fall about 3.5 percent, according to the latest estimate from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). In January the bank expected that the Czech economy would stagnate this year and the Slovak economy increase by 2.5 percent. Czech National Bank in a new forecast is expecting that the Czech economy will fall by 2.4 percent.

At the same time, the EBRD said that gross domestic product in emerging European economies will fall by 5.2 percent. The January estimate calculated an increase of 0.1 percent following last year's growth by 4.2 percent.


Complete Story »]]> GUR Vlada Kynsky Google Trying to Combat Baidu's Dominance in China http://seekingalpha.com/article/128596-google-trying-to-combat-baidu-s-dominance-in-china?source=feed 128596 The latest releases show that Google (GOOG) will start to offer free music downloads in China. The company has partnered with several music labels and is expected to provide 350,000 tracks for free download. Later on, it will add up to 1.1 million tracks.

The International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) estimates that 99% of the music distributed last year in China was illegal.

]]> Tue, 31 Mar 2009 03:51:52 -0400 Vlada Kynsky The latest releases show that Google (GOOG) will start to offer free music downloads in China. The company has partnered with several music labels and is expected to provide 350,000 tracks for free download. Later on, it will add up to 1.1 million tracks.

The International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) estimates that 99% of the music distributed last year in China was illegal.


Complete Story »]]> GOOG BIDU Vlada Kynsky Healthcare Is Not Always Defensive http://seekingalpha.com/article/127320-healthcare-is-not-always-defensive?source=feed 127320 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) gets more than 40% of their income from the U.S. The company produces virtually all categories of drugs and can be described as a direct competitor of companies such as Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Pfizer (PFE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Novartis (NVS) and Sanofi Aventis (SNY).

click to enlarge
The most important segment in terms of sales is Respiratory. A key product is Seredite / Advair. This single drug brings in over 20% of total sales for GSK, which is impressive. It is, however, also a big mess for the company. Patent protection in the U.S. already expired for the year, and in Europe it will expire in 2013. This is relatively soon.

]]> Tue, 24 Mar 2009 07:51:10 -0400 Vlada Kynsky GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) gets more than 40% of their income from the U.S. The company produces virtually all categories of drugs and can be described as a direct competitor of companies such as Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Pfizer (PFE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Novartis (NVS) and Sanofi Aventis (SNY).

click to enlarge
The most important segment in terms of sales is Respiratory. A key product is Seredite / Advair. This single drug brings in over 20% of total sales for GSK, which is impressive. It is, however, also a big mess for the company. Patent protection in the U.S. already expired for the year, and in Europe it will expire in 2013. This is relatively soon.


Complete Story »]]> GSK Vlada Kynsky Bullish on Microsoft http://seekingalpha.com/article/126063-bullish-on-microsoft?source=feed 126063 Microsoft (MSFT) is of course one of the largest technology companies in the world. Is it the right time for investing in its stock? By calculating the intrinsic value of shares, I believe the clear answer is yes. But what about the business side, and what about its future profits?

Let's focus on the structure of the business. Activities are divided into the following divisions:

]]> Mon, 16 Mar 2009 04:38:17 -0400 Vlada Kynsky Microsoft (MSFT) is of course one of the largest technology companies in the world. Is it the right time for investing in its stock? By calculating the intrinsic value of shares, I believe the clear answer is yes. But what about the business side, and what about its future profits?

Let's focus on the structure of the business. Activities are divided into the following divisions:


Complete Story »]]> MSFT Vlada Kynsky Guru Investors' Investment Picks for 2009 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124898-guru-investors-investment-picks-for-2009?source=feed 124898 Based on the investor poll, commodities seem to be the most appealing investment for 2009. Followed by stocks, bonds and cash as the worst asset class for the year.

In this post I would like to gather opinions about investing in 2009 from top investor gurus. Let me start with Warren Buffett. Warren called the stock market bottom already in mid 2008 and has started to add equity positions to his holdings. Last actions show buying interests in railroad companies, and he increased stake in Burlington Northern (BNI). Despite declining volume, earnings have gone up by 19%. Other interesting picks from the industry are Union Pacific (UNP) with 35% earnings growth or CSX Corp (CSX) with 16%.
Other top investors, Donald Coxe and David Winters, like railroads. Companies will benefit from low energy costs, and their P/E ratios vary in range from 6 - 8 for the top companies in the sector with book value equalling to the current share price. Amazing growth rate makes attractive PEG ratios.

George Soros is one those investors betting on an oil price rebound. His most favorite in Brazilian Petrobras (PZE). In February he also upped stake in Best Buy (BBY).

]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 09:03:17 -0400 Vlada Kynsky Based on the investor poll, commodities seem to be the most appealing investment for 2009. Followed by stocks, bonds and cash as the worst asset class for the year.

In this post I would like to gather opinions about investing in 2009 from top investor gurus. Let me start with Warren Buffett. Warren called the stock market bottom already in mid 2008 and has started to add equity positions to his holdings. Last actions show buying interests in railroad companies, and he increased stake in Burlington Northern (BNI). Despite declining volume, earnings have gone up by 19%. Other interesting picks from the industry are Union Pacific (UNP) with 35% earnings growth or CSX Corp (CSX) with 16%.
Other top investors, Donald Coxe and David Winters, like railroads. Companies will benefit from low energy costs, and their P/E ratios vary in range from 6 - 8 for the top companies in the sector with book value equalling to the current share price. Amazing growth rate makes attractive PEG ratios.

George Soros is one those investors betting on an oil price rebound. His most favorite in Brazilian Petrobras (PZE). In February he also upped stake in Best Buy (BBY).


Complete Story »]]> BNI UNP CSX PZE BBY Vlada Kynsky Fed Up with the Generalizing About CEE Markets http://seekingalpha.com/article/124238-fed-up-with-the-generalizing-about-cee-markets?source=feed 124238 I am fed up with the generalization of emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe. You can listen everyday on CNBC or read at Financial Times how bad thins are in the CEE markets. This is Completely wrong. As bad as things are with CEE countries with high debt (Baltic countries, Hungary), it does not concern the Czech Republic or Poland.

It seems that many people understand that it is impossible to throw all countries into one bag. There is an indication that the forint depreciated significantly in the middle. In the market, according to the spreading fears, Hungary will need additional help from the International Monetary Fund.

]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 04:01:13 -0500 Vlada Kynsky I am fed up with the generalization of emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe. You can listen everyday on CNBC or read at Financial Times how bad thins are in the CEE markets. This is Completely wrong. As bad as things are with CEE countries with high debt (Baltic countries, Hungary), it does not concern the Czech Republic or Poland.

It seems that many people understand that it is impossible to throw all countries into one bag. There is an indication that the forint depreciated significantly in the middle. In the market, according to the spreading fears, Hungary will need additional help from the International Monetary Fund.


Complete Story »]]> CEE Vlada Kynsky Analyzing the Market's Last Bottom http://seekingalpha.com/article/118953-analyzing-the-market-s-last-bottom?source=feed 118953



The picture above (click to enlarge) represents the past 6 months for the S&P 500. Many investors have said the "stock markets have bottomed". Let's have a look at the last stock market bottom which took place in October 2002 (click on chart to enlarge, below).

]]> Fri, 06 Feb 2009 03:11:54 -0500 Vlada Kynsky



The picture above (click to enlarge) represents the past 6 months for the S&P 500. Many investors have said the "stock markets have bottomed". Let's have a look at the last stock market bottom which took place in October 2002 (click on chart to enlarge, below).


Complete Story »]]> SPY Vlada Kynsky On the Heels of eBay's Slide, What News Will Amazon's Earnings Bring? http://seekingalpha.com/article/116500-on-the-heels-of-ebay-s-slide-what-news-will-amazon-s-earnings-bring?source=feed 116500 click to enlarge

Last week, online seller Ebay (EBAY) released earnings for Q4 08 and the company posted its first revenue decline ever. It was even a double digit decline - by 16% to $ 1.3 bln. Next week we have another scheduled online seller's earnings call. Amazon (AMZN) releases results on Thursday 29th of January. And there could be upside surprise as the company called this the best Christmas ever with ordered 6.3 mln items. Also, in terms of internet searches, Amazon has beaten Ebay. December visitors increase by 9.8% y-o-y for Amazon vs. drop by 2.5% for Ebay.

]]> Mon, 26 Jan 2009 12:01:24 -0500 Vlada Kynsky click to enlarge

Last week, online seller Ebay (EBAY) released earnings for Q4 08 and the company posted its first revenue decline ever. It was even a double digit decline - by 16% to $ 1.3 bln. Next week we have another scheduled online seller's earnings call. Amazon (AMZN) releases results on Thursday 29th of January. And there could be upside surprise as the company called this the best Christmas ever with ordered 6.3 mln items. Also, in terms of internet searches, Amazon has beaten Ebay. December visitors increase by 9.8% y-o-y for Amazon vs. drop by 2.5% for Ebay.


Complete Story »]]> EBAY AMZN Vlada Kynsky 12 Commodity Based Short ETFs http://seekingalpha.com/article/116497-12-commodity-based-short-etfs?source=feed 116497 More and more inverse/short ETFs are being launched by issuers nowadays. I have posted an article already about reverse ETFs sorted in groups. At US stock exchanges you can find mostly exchange traded funds underlying equities with 1:1, double or triple leverage.

Today I would like to focus on commodity based short ETFs - if you want to trade commodities and you are bearish that this is the right product. Of course, in case you don't trade futures contracts on the commodity exchange.

]]> Mon, 26 Jan 2009 11:42:52 -0500 Vlada Kynsky More and more inverse/short ETFs are being launched by issuers nowadays. I have posted an article already about reverse ETFs sorted in groups. At US stock exchanges you can find mostly exchange traded funds underlying equities with 1:1, double or triple leverage.

Today I would like to focus on commodity based short ETFs - if you want to trade commodities and you are bearish that this is the right product. Of course, in case you don't trade futures contracts on the commodity exchange.


Complete Story »]]> AGA ADZ BOM BOS DTO SZO DZZ DGZ CMD SCO GLL ZSL Vlada Kynsky Gold's Big Picture http://seekingalpha.com/article/114717-gold-s-big-picture?source=feed 114717 click to enlarge

The chart above shows a 3 year weekly chart of Gold continuous contract. Since gold price peaked in March 08 all new consecutive highs are always lower. The same is valid for new lows. This shows a short term bearish pattern.

]]> Wed, 14 Jan 2009 06:51:37 -0500 Vlada Kynsky click to enlarge

The chart above shows a 3 year weekly chart of Gold continuous contract. Since gold price peaked in March 08 all new consecutive highs are always lower. The same is valid for new lows. This shows a short term bearish pattern.


Complete Story »]]> UBG GOE IAU DGP DZZ DGL DGZ UGL GLL GLD Vlada Kynsky The Correlation Between Crude Oil and the U.S. Dollar http://seekingalpha.com/article/112294-the-correlation-between-crude-oil-and-the-u-s-dollar?source=feed 112294 click to enlarge


The picture above shows a one year chart for United States Oil fund (USO), PowerShares Bullish US dollar index (UUP) and SPDR Trust (SPY). You can see there is an inverse correlation between the value of the US dollar and crude oil prices. The slide from record crude prices of $140 triggered the US dollar rebound. In the past few days, the Euro and other currencies are regaining ground against the US dollar, but crude oil is still heading down.

]]> Fri, 26 Dec 2008 04:05:11 -0500 Vlada Kynsky click to enlarge


The picture above shows a one year chart for United States Oil fund (USO), PowerShares Bullish US dollar index (UUP) and SPDR Trust (SPY). You can see there is an inverse correlation between the value of the US dollar and crude oil prices. The slide from record crude prices of $140 triggered the US dollar rebound. In the past few days, the Euro and other currencies are regaining ground against the US dollar, but crude oil is still heading down.


Complete Story »]]> USO UUP SPY Vlada Kynsky Year End Picture for U.S. Market Shows Bullish Patterns http://seekingalpha.com/article/109945-year-end-picture-for-u-s-market-shows-bullish-patterns?source=feed 109945 click to enlarge

Before the end of the year, the technical picture for major US stock indexes shows a couple of bullish patterns. The Dow Jones Index is approaching a 50 day moving average, which gives good long term indication. The 3 months chart below shows another bullish formation "Head and Shoulders". If we look at price indicators like RSI or MACD we can see bullish divergences for most of them.

]]> Tue, 09 Dec 2008 15:05:06 -0500 Vlada Kynsky click to enlarge

Before the end of the year, the technical picture for major US stock indexes shows a couple of bullish patterns. The Dow Jones Index is approaching a 50 day moving average, which gives good long term indication. The 3 months chart below shows another bullish formation "Head and Shoulders". If we look at price indicators like RSI or MACD we can see bullish divergences for most of them.


Complete Story »]]> SPY QQQQ DIA Vlada Kynsky Best Performing Stock of the Year? A Pasta Company! http://seekingalpha.com/article/108709-best-performing-stock-of-the-year-a-pasta-company?source=feed 108709 The biggest pasta producer in North America is American Italian Pasta Company (AIPC). It is already 20 years since the Missouri based company was founded. 2008 has been a successful milestone in the company's history as most of other stocks are turning in returns of deep red. Last month AIPC finally left Pink Sheets after two years trading below $10, and became listed on the NASDAQ.

American Italian Pasta Company is in the defensive sector Consumer Staples, as are other food producers. Nestle (NSRGY.PK), Kraft Foods (KFT) or Heinz (HNZ) didn't perform badly compared to other sectors, but still with a negative YTD return. Shares of AIPC have around 110% performance since the beginning of the year and is one of the best performing stocks this year.

]]> Tue, 02 Dec 2008 05:21:17 -0500 Vlada Kynsky The biggest pasta producer in North America is American Italian Pasta Company (AIPC). It is already 20 years since the Missouri based company was founded. 2008 has been a successful milestone in the company's history as most of other stocks are turning in returns of deep red. Last month AIPC finally left Pink Sheets after two years trading below $10, and became listed on the NASDAQ.

American Italian Pasta Company is in the defensive sector Consumer Staples, as are other food producers. Nestle (NSRGY.PK), Kraft Foods (KFT) or Heinz (HNZ) didn't perform badly compared to other sectors, but still with a negative YTD return. Shares of AIPC have around 110% performance since the beginning of the year and is one of the best performing stocks this year.


Complete Story »]]> AIPC Vlada Kynsky Which ETF Markets Benefitted Most From Last Week's Global Rally? http://seekingalpha.com/article/108461-which-etf-markets-benefitted-most-from-last-week-s-global-rally?source=feed 108461 The shortened trading week brought nice gains for most global stock market indices. U.S. major benchmarks closed sharply higher during 3.5 trading days. Dow Jones was up 9.73%, Nasdaq Composite 10.92% and S&P 500 12.03%. There have not been any fundamental improvements, but the markets were just deeply oversold and bargain hunters started to add new positions.

Recently, I published an ETF performance map on a year to date basis. Numbers were hovering around -50% for European ETFs and -60% for Asian ETFs, except Japan. I think it will be interesting to see which markets benefit from last week's rally the most.

]]> Sun, 30 Nov 2008 13:08:12 -0500 Vlada Kynsky The shortened trading week brought nice gains for most global stock market indices. U.S. major benchmarks closed sharply higher during 3.5 trading days. Dow Jones was up 9.73%, Nasdaq Composite 10.92% and S&P 500 12.03%. There have not been any fundamental improvements, but the markets were just deeply oversold and bargain hunters started to add new positions.

Recently, I published an ETF performance map on a year to date basis. Numbers were hovering around -50% for European ETFs and -60% for Asian ETFs, except Japan. I think it will be interesting to see which markets benefit from last week's rally the most.


Complete Story »]]> VGK PEF IEV FEZ FEU FDD VEA EZU EWO EWN EWL TUR EWU EWK EWD EKH PWD EWQ EWI DFE DEB PEH EWP EWG DEW ADRU VPL THD SCJ PUA PJO PIN PGJ ITF INP GXC FXI PDQ FNI EWM EWJ EWH PAF EWY EWA EIS DNL JSC EWT EPI DND AIA ECH ENY EWC EWZ EWW ILF Vlada Kynsky VIX Is Not a Great Indicator in the Current Crisis http://seekingalpha.com/article/108173-vix-is-not-a-great-indicator-in-the-current-crisis?source=feed 108173 The current crisis proves that the Volatility Index (VIX) as a investing indicator is not as efficient as expected. History showed a level of 40 as an indication of market bottom, but this has not been case in the current market as the VIX crossed easily above 40 and jumped to 89. A similar situation happened during October '87 when the VIX peaked at 150.

]]> Wed, 26 Nov 2008 12:18:46 -0500 Vlada Kynsky The current crisis proves that the Volatility Index (VIX) as a investing indicator is not as efficient as expected. History showed a level of 40 as an indication of market bottom, but this has not been case in the current market as the VIX crossed easily above 40 and jumped to 89. A similar situation happened during October '87 when the VIX peaked at 150.


Complete Story »]]> Vlada Kynsky