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Vladimir Zernov  

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  • North Atlantic Drilling's Q4 Report: An Amazing Difference From Seadrill's Report
    Today, 11:23 AM NADL 7 Comments

    Summary

    • North Atlantic Drilling decides to include contracts with Rosneft in its backlog.
    • In its fourth-quarter report, Seadrill, which owns 70.4% of North Atlantic Drilling, excluded contracts with Rosneft from the backlog.
    • North Atlantic Drilling is still trying to find a work for West Navigator and for rigs whose contracts expire this year.
  • Seadrill: First Takeaways From Q4 Report
    Today, 8:43 AM SDRL 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Seadrill cuts its backlog from $18.3 billion to $11.6 billion.
    • Seadrill states that it is unlikely to secure the contract with Rosneft on the same terms or in the same timeframe as previously expected.
    • The company continues to show solid operating results.
  • Newmont Mining: Too Far Too Fast
    Fri, Feb. 20 NEM 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Newmont Mining's shares rally on strong fourth-quarter results.
    • However, the company's current guidance implies a 1% improvements in costs and a 1% decrease in production.
    • I see little upside for Newmont Mining unless gold prices rebound.
  • Silver Standard Resources: Solid Performance, But Where Are The Catalysts?
    Fri, Feb. 20 SSRI 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver Standard Resources reports an adjusted loss of $6.3 million in Q4.
    • Marigold mine exceeds production guidance in 2014.
    • The company' development projects are stalled.
  • Alamos Gold: A Speculative Bet On Turkish Mines
    Fri, Feb. 20 AGI 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Alamos Gold expects that both its production and costs will increase in 2015.
    • The company's main development projects are awaiting permits in Turkey.
    • The company's cash position equals to 48% of total capitalization.
  • Goldcorp: Problems In Argentina Weigh On Shares
    Thu, Feb. 19 GG 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Goldcorp reports Q4 results, missing on both earnings and revenue.
    • The company records a $2.3 billion impairment on its Cerro Negro mine.
    • Goldcorp is set to deliver positive free cash flow in 2015.
  • IAMGOLD: Better Costs And Solid Cash Cushion Could Provide Upside
    Thu, Feb. 19 IAG 4 Comments

    Summary

    • IAMGOLD reports a surprising decrease in all-in sustaining costs.
    • The company has $800 million of liquidity in cash and bullion.
    • The key question is whether the company is able to use its cash wisely.
  • Key Takeaways From Barrick Gold's 4Q Report
    Thu, Feb. 19 ABX 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Barrick Gold expects a modest production growth and a slight increase in costs in 2015.
    • The company targets a $3 billion reduction in net debt.
    • Pascua-Lama remains a major problem to be solved.
  • Seadrill: Problems In Russia Could Last Longer Then Previously Expected
    Thu, Feb. 19 SDRL 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Seadrill's partner Rosneft asks the government to postpone drilling for 1.5 - 2 years.
    • This decision will put additional pressure on the drilling industry.
    • Medium-term prospects for North Atlantic Drilling look bad unless the company manages to find work for its rigs.
  • Cloud Peak Energy: Q4 Report Shows That The Company Is On The Right Track
    Thu, Feb. 19 CLD 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Cloud Peak Energy's 4Q results beat analyst estimates on both revenue and earnings.
    • The company showed a significant improvement on the cost side in the fourth quarter.
    • Solid liquidity will help Cloud Peak Energy in the tough price environment.
  • Harmony Gold Mining: Tough Road Ahead
    Tue, Feb. 17 HMY 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Harmony Gold Mining's costs remain high.
    • The company believes that its Golpu project, which is set to start production in 2020, will be a game-changer.
    • Will long-term prospects offset near-term difficulties?
  • Walter Energy's Q4 Results: Pure Disappointment
    Tue, Feb. 17 WLT 48 Comments

    Summary

    • Walter Energy's cash position decreased faster than I expected.
    • The company's average cash cost of sales increased in comparison with the third quarter.
    • Walter Energy is in real trouble.
  • Agnico Eagle Mines' Q4 Report Shows Continuing Strength
    Fri, Feb. 13 AEM Comment!

    Summary

    • Agnico Eagle Mines' 4Q results beat expectations on both revenue and earnings.
    • The company expects further production growth in 2015.
    • Agnico Eagle Mines' cost performance continues to improve.
  • Teck Resources Reports Solid Q4 Results
    Thu, Feb. 12 TCK 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Teck Resources' Q4 performance is enhanced by low oil prices and a weak Canadian dollar.
    • The company's liquidity remains on a healthy level.
    • Further downside in copper prices remains the biggest risk to the company.
  • Key Takeaways From Alpha Natural Resources' Q4 Earnings
    Thu, Feb. 12 ANR 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Alpha Natural Resources's results exceed expectations on both earnings and revenue.
    • The company reported progress in costs.
    • Alpha Natural Resources' liquidity remains strong.
  • Key Takeaways From Yamana Gold's 4Q Report
    Thu, Feb. 12 AUY 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Yamana Gold expects to grow its production by 9% in 2015.
    • The company's cost outlook looks good.
    • Yamana Gold's shares will be pressured by risks of further dilution and a $244 million hit from the Argentinean lawsuit.
  • Key Takeaways From Kinross Gold's Q4 Report
    Wed, Feb. 11 KGC 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Kinross Gold expects lower production and higher costs in 2015.
    • Nevertheless, the balance sheet remains solid and the company has resources for possible acquisitions.
    • I remain bullish on Kinross Gold.
  • Key Takeaways From Cliffs Natural Resources' Earnings Call
    Thu, Feb. 5 CLF 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Cliffs Natural Resources elaborated on its decision to eliminate the dividend.
    • The company addressed worries about the restructuring at the Bloom Lake mine.
    • Cliffs elaborated on the decision to reduce its credit facility.
  • Update: My Key Takeaway From Arch Coal's Q4 Report
    Tue, Feb. 3 ACI 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Arch Coal reported a loss in the fourth quarter.
    • The company's liquidity remains above $1.2 billion.
    • Arch Coal's performance in 2015 will likely be similar to the company's performance in 2014.
  • Update: Cliffs Natural Resources' Q4 Earnings Report Is Bullish
    Tue, Feb. 3 CLF 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Cliffs Natural Resources surprised with an adjusted net income of $166 million.
    • The company reported significant improvements on the cost side.
    • I change my stance from "cautiously bullish" to "bullish".
  • Investing In The Russian Market: Oil ETFs Are Better Than Russia-Focused ETFs
    Mon, Feb. 2 BNO, ERUS, RBL 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The Russian Central Bank surprisingly cuts the key rate to 15%.
    • The implementation of the anti-crisis plan meets first obstacles.
    • ETFs that focus on Russia are unlikely to rise at the same pace as oil ETFs in case of an oil price upside.
  • Update: Seadrill's Partner Rosneft Will Postpone Drilling In The Kara Sea
    Fri, Jan. 30 SDRL 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Reuters reports that Rosneft will not resume drilling in the Kara Sea this year because of sanctions.
    • This is not a big surprise.
    • This news won't put additional pressure on shares of Seadrill and North Atlantic Drilling.
  • Update: Cliffs Natural Resources' Liquidity Will Decrease By $375 Million
    Thu, Jan. 29 CLF 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Cliffs Natural Resources amends its credit facility.
    • The credit facility is reduced to $900 million. It will be further reduced to $750 million on May 31.
    • This is bad news in the light of continuing downside in iron ore market.
  • Russian Market Will Remain Under Pressure
    Wed, Jan. 28 ERUS, RBL, RSX 2 Comments

    Summary

    • S&P cuts Russian rating to BB+/B.
    • This move will most likely trigger another leg of weakness in the Russian market.
    • I anticipated this move in my previous article, and I remain bearish on the Russian market in the near term.
  • Update: Cliffs Natural Resources Decides To Restructure Bloom Lake
    Tue, Jan. 27 CLF 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Cliffs Natural Resources decides to start restructuring procedures at its troubled Bloom Lake mine.
    • The company seeks to get rid of the massive $650 million-$700 million closure costs.
    • I think that this move bodes well for the company, and I remain bullish on Cliffs.
  • Peabody Energy Reports Bleak 4Q Earnings
    Tue, Jan. 27 BTU 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Peabody Energy's loss widens while margins continue to shrink.
    • Cost improvements are unable to offset lower realized prices.
    • Guidance for 2015 does not look encouraging.
  • Walter Energy: Is Bankruptcy Around The Corner?
    Mon, Jan. 26 WLT 97 Comments

    Summary

    • Walter Energy's shares drop below the $1 mark.
    • The company was unable to sell any assets since the sale of the Blue Creek coal terminal back in August.
    • Walter Energy seems to rely on the rebound of met coal prices, and this is a dubious strategy.
  • Update: Cliffs Natural Resources Eliminates The Dividend
    Mon, Jan. 26 CLF 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Cliffs Natural Resources decided to eliminate its quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share.
    • The company stated that it reduced its indebtedness by more than $400 million.
    • My confidence in Cliffs Natural Resources grows.
  • Update: IAMGOLD Does Not Expect Production Growth In 2015
    Thu, Jan. 22 IAG 9 Comments

    Summary

    • IAMGOLD reported that it produced 844,000 ounces of gold in 2014 and provided production guidance of 820,000 - 860,000 ounces of gold in 2015.
    • The company completed the sale of Niobec and increased its cash balance to more than $800 million.
    • IAMGOLD's oil hedges are likely to lose money in 2015.
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: I'm Cautiously Bullish
    Wed, Jan. 21 CLF 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The possible sale of Bloom Lake mine could be a major upside catalyst for Cliffs.
    • On the other hand, a negative outlook for iron ore prices continues to pressure Cliffs' valuation.
    • I think that positive catalysts will outweigh negative catalysts for Cliffs in 2015.
  • Russian Market Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better
    Mon, Jan. 12 RSX 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Oil continues its slide, hurting Russian oil and gas producers and the economy.
    • While the Russian ruble has somewhat stabilized, high interest rates put enormous pressure on the economy.
    • I stand by my views that Russian market will see another leg of downside.
  • Update: Seadrill's Partner Rosneft Will Postpone Drilling Of Several Arctic Projects
    Dec. 22, 2014 SDRL 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Rosneft will likely postpone drilling of several Arctic projects because of sanctions.
    • Rosneft will likely present its updated plan on the development of the Arctic at the beginning of 2015.
    • While these news are negative, they seem already reflected in the share price of Seadrill and North Atlantic Drilling.