Seeking Alpha

Vladimir Zernov

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Vladimir Zernov's Articles BY TICKER:
  • Walter Energy: Is Bankruptcy Around The Corner?
    Yesterday, 1:18 PM WLT 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Walter Energy's shares drop below the $1 mark.
    • The company was unable to sell any assets since the sale of the Blue Creek coal terminal back in August.
    • Walter Energy seems to rely on the rebound of met coal prices, and this is a dubious strategy.
  • Update: Cliffs Natural Resources Eliminates The Dividend
    Yesterday, 9:45 AM CLF 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Cliffs Natural Resources decided to eliminate its quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share.
    • The company stated that it reduced its indebtedness by more than $400 million.
    • My confidence in Cliffs Natural Resources grows.
  • Update: IAMGOLD Does Not Expect Production Growth In 2015
    Thu, Jan. 22 IAG 9 Comments

    Summary

    • IAMGOLD reported that it produced 844,000 ounces of gold in 2014 and provided production guidance of 820,000 - 860,000 ounces of gold in 2015.
    • The company completed the sale of Niobec and increased its cash balance to more than $800 million.
    • IAMGOLD's oil hedges are likely to lose money in 2015.
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: I'm Cautiously Bullish
    Wed, Jan. 21 CLF 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The possible sale of Bloom Lake mine could be a major upside catalyst for Cliffs.
    • On the other hand, a negative outlook for iron ore prices continues to pressure Cliffs' valuation.
    • I think that positive catalysts will outweigh negative catalysts for Cliffs in 2015.
  • Russian Market Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better
    Mon, Jan. 12 RSX 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Oil continues its slide, hurting Russian oil and gas producers and the economy.
    • While the Russian ruble has somewhat stabilized, high interest rates put enormous pressure on the economy.
    • I stand by my views that Russian market will see another leg of downside.
  • Update: Seadrill's Partner Rosneft Will Postpone Drilling Of Several Arctic Projects
    Dec. 22, 2014 SDRL 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Rosneft will likely postpone drilling of several Arctic projects because of sanctions.
    • Rosneft will likely present its updated plan on the development of the Arctic at the beginning of 2015.
    • While these news are negative, they seem already reflected in the share price of Seadrill and North Atlantic Drilling.
  • Time To Throw In The Towel In Walter Energy?
    Dec. 19, 2014 WLT 34 Comments

    Summary

    • Walter Energy trades near multi-year lows.
    • There are no news on possible asset sales so far.
    • Met coal price benchmark could decline to $117 per ton in the first quarter of 2015.
  • Now Is Not The Time To Buy Russian Market
    Dec. 19, 2014 RSX, RUSL, RUSS 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Russian market trades near multi-year lows.
    • Russian market could look like a bargain to many investors.
    • However, I see big downside risks, including the weakening ruble, high key rate and the overall lack of strategy of dealing with the current situation.
  • Seadrill: Perspectives Of Contract With Rosneft Amid The Collapse Of The Russian Ruble
    Dec. 18, 2014 SDRL, RNFTF 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The Russian ruble declined almost 25% on Tuesday before stabilizing on higher levels.
    • The Russian government discussed urgent measures to support the ruble.
    • The government will likely focus on stabilizing the financial system in the near term, which does not bode well for expensive investment projects.
  • Kinross Gold: Assessment Of Risks For Russian Operations
    Dec. 18, 2014 KGC 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Russia could impose capital control to stop the fall of the ruble.
    • The increase of the key rate to 17% could bring problems for local suppliers of Kinross Gold.
    • Russia could sell its gold from reserves in order to stabilize its financial market.
    • Are these risks real?
  • Update: Questioning Credit Suisse's $1 Price Target For Cliffs Natural Resources
    Dec. 17, 2014 CLF 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Credit Suisse assigns a $1 target for Cliffs Natural Resources' shares.
    • I think that the scenario needed to reach the $1 price target is unrealistic.
    • I remain neutral on Cliffs' shares.
  • Teck Resources: Dividend Looks Safe
    Dec. 15, 2014 TCK 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Teck Resources states that it is committed to pay its dividend.
    • The recent drop in Teck Resources' shares is most likely related to weak oil prices, which have no impact on the company's bottom line in the near term.
    • The attractive dividend yield could provide support to battered shares.
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Time To Be Bearish Again?
    Dec. 15, 2014 CLF 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Cliffs Natural Resources shares are under continuing pressure because of the weak outlook for iron ore price.
    • In addition, the company could potentially spend significant money on the possible closure of the Bloom Lake Mine.
    • On the other hand, Cliffs has potential in asset sales, an approved buyback and strong U.S. operations.
    • Do the negative factors outweigh the positive factors?
  • Update: Evaluation Of Risks For Seadrill's Contract With Rosneft Jumps Like A Rabbit
    Dec. 12, 2014 SDRL 31 Comments

    Summary

    • Rosneft raises 625 billion rubles or $10.85 billion in just an hour.
    • Rosneft submits another application for the money from the National Wealth Fund.
    • Rosneft demonstrates its strength, and the company could still find a way for the contract with North Atlantic Drilling.
  • Seadrill: Risks For Contract With Rosneft Increase Day By Day
    Dec. 11, 2014 SDRL 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Rosneft could offer six-year notes worth 800 billion rubles or $14.6 billion.
    • Russian Ministry of Economic Development stated that there were no plans to buy bonds with the money from the National Wealth Fund.
    • Oil prices dive after OPEC cuts its 2015 demand forecast, further worsening the outlook for big and difficult projects.
  • Vale: Is The Dividend In Question?
    Dec. 10, 2014 VALE 4 Comments

    Summary

    • During its Vale Day, the company stated it was positive about paying a healthy dividend to shareholders.
    • However, the iron ore price weakness and continued significant capital spending raises a question about what dividend could be "healthy" in 2015.
    • Vale's vague estimate of a $5 billion-$10 billion potential for divestitures adds further uncertainty.
  • Agnico-Eagle Mines: Should You Bet On Company's Production Growth?
    Dec. 10, 2014 AEM Comment!

    Summary

    • Agnico-Eagle Mines expects to increase its production by 14% in 2015.
    • Additional production growth could lead to more dilution for shareholders.
    • Agnico-Eagle Mines needs a gold price rebound to fully justify its strategy.
  • IAMGOLD: Will Cash Cushion Provide Upside?
    Dec. 9, 2014 IAG 3 Comments

    Summary

    • IAMGOLD's cash position is set to increase with $500 million of proceeds from the sale of the Niobec mine.
    • On the other hand, IAMGOLD remains a high cost producer, and its ability to cut costs further is rather limited.
    • Will IAMGOLD manage to turn its strengths into upside?
  • Seadrill: Perspective From Russia - Part 7
    Dec. 8, 2014 SDRL 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Rosneft's actual application to the National Wealth Fund is much lower than its initial application.
    • Russian President Mr. Putin signals a shift regarding the distribution of the money from the National Wealth Fund.
    • Do risks for the Seadrill's partnership with Rosneft increase?
  • Seadrill: Perspective From Russia - Part 6
    Dec. 5, 2014 SDRL 41 Comments

    Summary

    • Rosneft's application for the money from the National Wealth Fund went from the Ministry of Energy to the Ministry of Economic Development.
    • Meanwhile, the Russian ruble continued to fall, but the dollar amount of the National Wealth Fund remained stable.
    • The government decided to sell 19.5% of Rosneft.
  • Update: Cliffs Natural Resources Terminates Debt Tender Offer
    Dec. 4, 2014 CLF 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Cliffs Natural Resources terminates previously announced debt tender offer, stating that interest rates have moved unfavorably during the last weeks.
    • This announcement is likely to add more volatility to Cliffs' shares.
    • I think that this news is slightly negative for the company.
  • Update: Cliffs Natural Resources Sells Logan County Coal
    Dec. 3, 2014 CLF 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Cliffs Natural Resources sells Logan County Coal for $175 million and assumption of certain liabilities.
    • This is Cliffs' next move in its strategy to deal with the debt problem.
    • Although the news is positive for Cliffs, I remain neutral on the company's shares.
  • Yamana Gold: Are Things That Bad?
    Dec. 3, 2014 AUY 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Yamana Gold lost 50% year-to-date, and is one of the worst-performing gold stocks.
    • The company's big impairment reflects reality and should not be taken lightly.
    • Yamana Gold could provide a buying opportunity if the company is able to show sustainable improvements, especially on the free cash flow side.
  • BHP Billiton: Ready To Pump Up The Volume
    Dec. 3, 2014 BHP 1 Comment

    Summary

    • BHP Billiton states it is ready to further increase iron ore production.
    • The company states that if it did not increase iron ore production, other companies will do this.
    • The constant increase of production volumes seems unstoppable, further pressuring iron ore prices and BHP Billiton's results.
  • Update: BB&T Capital Thinks That Walter Energy Will Go Bankrupt In 2015
    Dec. 3, 2014 WLT 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Walter Energy's shares dive on BB&T Capital's research note that concludes that the company's management would probably choose bankruptcy in 2015.
    • BB&T Capital states that Walter Energy has enough cash to last through 2015, but met coal market weakness could force the bankruptcy decision.
    • Is it a buying opportunity for those willing to take risks?
  • Update: Peabody Energy Confirms 2014 Guidance
    Dec. 1, 2014 BTU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Peabody Energy expects to sell 245 million-255 million tons of coal, in line with previous guidance.
    • The company expects that its U.S. costs would be down 1%-3% compared to 2013, where a 1% reduction looks like the most plausible estimate.
    • This news does not change my view on Peabody Energy.
  • Vale: Investors Pay For The Company's Long-Term Strategy
    Dec. 1, 2014 VALE 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Vale continues to increase iron ore production and proceeds with a huge iron ore project.
    • The company is not afraid to put additional supply on the already oversupplied market and seems ready to take even lower iron ore prices.
    • In the light of continuing downturn on the iron ore market, I think that Vale's 2015 dividend could be lower than in 2014.
  • Silver Standard Resources: Marigold Will Be The Biggest Driver
    Dec. 1, 2014 SSRI 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver Standard Resources' silver mine Pirquitas is delivering stable and predictable results.
    • The life of mine plan of the company's gold mine, Marigold, looks encouraging.
    • However, the mine has to keep improving costs and production fast in order to provide upside for Silver Standard Resources' shares.
  • Seadrill And Rosneft: Does The Dividend Elimination Signal A Catastrophe?
    Nov. 28, 2014 SDRL, RNFTF 40 Comments

    Summary

    • In a surprising move, Seadrill cuts its dividend to zero.
    • North Atlantic Drilling states that the uncertainty of the deal with Rosneft influenced its decision to eliminate the dividend.
    • Does this signal that the deal with Rosneft is set to collapse?
  • Kinross Gold: The Punishment Is Undeserved
    Nov. 27, 2014 KGC 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Kinross Gold is one of the most punished gold stocks.
    • In my view, fears (and the related discount) about the company's Russian assets are greatly exaggerated.
    • Kinross Gold's solid balance sheet and cost performance will ultimately be noticed by investors.
  • Seadrill: Perspective From Russia - Part 5
    Nov. 26, 2014 SDRL 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Draft law on seizure of foreign assets is frozen until late January.
    • Rosneft continues its battle for the resources of the Russian National Wealth Fund.
    • Schlumberger and Halliburton may have to sell their assets in Russia according to the Russian Energy Minister.
  • Is Peabody Energy A Safe Bet On A Coal Rebound?
    Nov. 25, 2014 BTU 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Peabody Energy shows good operating performance and has a solid balance sheet.
    • The company remains more exposed to the thermal coal market than to the met coal market.
    • Despite its big liquidity position, Peabody Energy is not immune to a coal price downside.