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Vladimir Zernov

 
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  • Seadrill: Perspective From Russia Part 2 [View article]
    The law has significant chances to be approved. However, in Russia it is more important if the law will be enforced, or will just exist on paper. The Russian adage that dates probably back to the 19th century states that the severity of Russian laws is compensated by the fact that they don't always get executed.
    Oct 1 11:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Perspective From Russia Part 2 [View article]
    I don't think sanctions will be lifted as soon as possible. My view is that sanctions are more than 50% made for internal purposes, in order to show "we are strong, we are showing'em" rather than to make Russia do something.
    Oct 1 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy: Despite Weakness, The Company Will Have More Than $500 Million Cash At Year-End [View article]
    I don't think BTU is the best way to bet on the coal revival, because the fact that BTU is a stronger company is priced in. I see better upside potential in weaker names. The risk with them is bigger, but if coal continues to suffer, BTU will also go lower.
    Oct 1 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Trading Liquidity For A Buyback [View article]
    Markets often get irrational, so I'll stay with the trend while the selling pressure exists.
    Oct 1 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Evaluating The Possible Sale Of Australian Assets [View article]
    I believe it is possible.
    Oct 1 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Trading Liquidity For A Buyback [View article]
    It was not.
    Sep 30 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Evaluating The Possible Sale Of Australian Assets [View article]
    Iron ore prices have a chance to stay depressed for a significant period of time. VALE will come with a big chunk of additional tons in 2016. RIO has already signed a contract for southern simandou, which is an enormous deposit, although Ebola could postpone the development in the worst-case scenario.
    Sep 30 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Evaluating The Possible Sale Of Australian Assets [View article]
    Iron ore market is in a state of oversupply, and this is unlikely to change, at least in the near term. Also, CLF cannot compete on costs with the likes of RIO, BHP and VALE, which makes the situation difficult for the company.
    Sep 30 02:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Evaluating The Possible Sale Of Australian Assets [View article]
    Agree, bondholders are served first, so restructuring is probably no good for common stock holders.
    Sep 30 02:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Evaluating The Possible Sale Of Australian Assets [View article]
    Don't think P/B is the thing to watch here.
    Sep 30 02:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Evaluating The Possible Sale Of Australian Assets [View article]
    No, it is not bankrupt, and I did not state this. If CLF follows the new strategy and ultimately sells everything except us iron ore, the valuation will depend on the prices it manages to get for those sold assets and the amount of remaining debt.
    Sep 30 02:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy: Despite Weakness, The Company Will Have More Than $500 Million Cash At Year-End [View article]
    Covenants are right from the 10-k. Covenants were removed in 1q, but "for those revolving credit lenders that extended their commitments" remained. Saying this, $225million is by any means critical level, covenants or no covenants. Western Coal is not worthless, we'll sell how this plays out.
    Sep 29 03:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Perspective From Russia [View article]
    Steve, what happens in the mind of Mr. Putin is surely out of my knowledge. If judging by facts, Russia is currently taking a moderate approach. The rhetoric from EU eases a bit as well.
    There are always risk of further escalation, for sure. For example, there were propositions to ban Russia from SWIFT. Those propositions currently did not materialize, but they got a response from a head of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development. When asked about a SWIFT ban in a conference, he told it was "war". Officials of his rang evaluate their words seriously, so it could have been a signal for EU to ease a bit. Or, it could have been his personal opinion. The truth is nobody can tell that for sure, that's why I try to rely only on actions, not on words.
    The winter effect is also present. Today Ukraine signed "Winter pact" with Russia on gas. Ukraine agreed it had debt and will have to pay it. It's a small sign of normalization, in my view. I watch the developments, there is some additional info on Rosneft in Arctic. The comments section of this article is getting big, maybe I should write "perspective from Russia part 2" if people are interested.
    Sep 26 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy: Despite Weakness, The Company Will Have More Than $500 Million Cash At Year-End [View article]
    Coal companies hurt themselves with pricey and ill-timed acquisitions. Big players flooded the market with supply. That's the key to the problem.
    Sep 25 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Perspective From Russia [View article]
    Oddly enough, there's some technical glitch that does not allow me do post answers to many of your posts. Thank you all for kind words!
    Sep 23 10:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
116 Comments
73 Likes