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Vladimir Zernov  

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  • Cliffs Natural Resources: My Thoughts On Recent Developments [View article]
    A symbolic position after Q4, and much more at recent lows when the stock found a local bottom near $4.25. Will be trading around the position, as always.
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: First Takeaways From Q4 Report [View article]
    3Q: Seadrill Limited's order backlog as of November 25, 2004 is $18.3 billion. 4Q: Seadrill Limited's order backlog as of February 25,2015 is $11.6 billion. Apples to apples.
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Atlantic Drilling's Q4 Report: An Amazing Difference From Seadrill's Report [View article]
    One important clarification. The topic of the backlog was raised in the comments section of my article on SDRL. A reader argued that Rosneft's contract was never included in SDRL's backlog. This is not the case. Straight from SDRL 3Q: Seadrill Limited's backlog as of November 25, 2004 is $18.3 billion... These figures INCLUDE $4.1 billion of backlog related to Rosneft and exclude backlog related to pipelay vessels and Sete newbuild drillships. Straight from the 4Q report: "These figures EXCLUDE backlog related to Rosneft contracts, pipelay vessels and Sete newbuild drillships".
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: First Takeaways From Q4 Report [View article]
    I don't understand one thing. SDRL excludes, while NADL includes. The comment made by sibo made me return to SDRL's third quarter report as I was afraid of misleading my readers. Fortunately, I was not misleading. Straight from SDRL 3Q: Seadrill Limited's backlog as of November 25, 2004 is $18.3 billion... These figures INCLUDE $4.1 billion of backlog related to Rosneft and exclude backlog related to pipelay vessels and Sete newbuild drillships.
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: First Takeaways From Q4 Report [View article]
    Straight from the report: "These figures exclude backlog related to Rosneft contracts, pipelay vessels and Sete newbuild drillships" BTW, I find it intriguing that Seadrill excluded Rosneft while Nadl decided to keep them in.
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy: Q4 Report Shows That The Company Is On The Right Track [View article]
    17 bucks? that's probably too much in the near-to-medium term. Cannot see a catalyst that will take them there.
    Feb 19, 2015. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Problems In Russia Could Last Longer Then Previously Expected [View article]
    The situation with Rosneft is very complicated as the company is owned and controlled by the government. In some cases, when Rosneft argues with the government, it's the situation of government vs. government.
    Feb 19, 2015. 07:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Problems In Russia Could Last Longer Then Previously Expected [View article]
    Above $145? That's an interesting rule!
    Feb 19, 2015. 07:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy's Q4 Results: Pure Disappointment [View article]
    "When the company was asked to elaborate on this topic during the third quarter earnings call, it stated that it remained committed to the target [asset sales] and that it noticed more activity in incoming calls."
    That's my own words back in November.
    Well, maybe they needed more analysts to share their view. However, in a situation like Walter's, management should be more active in sharing their vision if they have something to say.
    Feb 17, 2015. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy's Q4 Results: Pure Disappointment [View article]
    Sure thing I know it. However, I think they could have said something during the CC. In Q3, they stated something like "good activity in incoming calls" as far as I remember. In Q4 - nothing. The decrease in the population of analysts is very intriguing.
    Feb 17, 2015. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy's Q4 Results: Pure Disappointment [View article]
    I think that they did not need analysts to answer obvious questions. In my view, the purpose of quarterly reports and calls is to 1) inform current shareholders about how things are going 2) advertise the company to new shareholders. In order to get your stock going in the right direction, you need new people/funds who buy the stock! That said, the management should cover the most important questions in the press release/earnings presentation rather than wait for analyst questions.
    Feb 17, 2015. 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy's Q4 Results: Pure Disappointment [View article]
    "Our strong production cost performance for 2014 makes us optimistic that we can continuing our trend of sequentially lowering cash cost per ton."

    At the same time:

    "Met coal sales in 2015 are forecasted to total between 8.5 million and 9 million tons and cash cost to sales in our underground Alabama mines should average around $100 per ton for the year."

    U.S. costs in 2014 were $94.56/ton in 2014. $97.82/ ton in Q4. Maybe I don't understand something, but is it improvement?

    Next, no comments on liquidity apart from the facts that you can get by simply watching the balance sheet. Isn't it the single most important question? "Walter Energy will remain focused on operating performance and productivity improvements; working safely, reducing expenses and managing liquidity." You can plug the sentence in anyone's presentation.

    No comments on the stock price. Even something like "the market does not give enough respect for our hard work" would have been better than nothing. The whole presentation is in the mood of "business as usual". No wonder why just a few analysts decided to participate in the call.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy's Q4 Results: Pure Disappointment [View article]
    I finally had the time to read through the earnings call. I'm astonished to say the least.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy's Q4 Results: Pure Disappointment [View article]
    Yes, the "B" word usage might get a boost.
    Feb 17, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy's Q4 Results: Pure Disappointment [View article]
    In Walter Energy's situation, near term matters a lot. I know I was not the only one expecting better numbers. I also think that the company might have done better in communicating their recipe for survival. Still, there's hope for met coal upside. Production cuts must ultimately translate into better prices.
    Feb 17, 2015. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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