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Vladimir Zernov

 
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  • Now Is Not The Time To Buy Russian Market [View article]
    MBT was a political play. Mr. Evtushenkov was released from home arrest, and MBT jumped.
    Dec 19, 2014. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Buy Russian Market [View article]
    There was a little panic, but nothing serious so far. Banks just got 1 trillion rubles of additional capitalization from the government. Deposit insurance has been doubled from 700,000 rubles to 1.4 million rubles. That's today's news.
    Dec 19, 2014. 01:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Buy Russian Market [View article]
    Yes, this shall pass. However, there are big differences between now and 98. And, in a certain way, 98 was better, but that's just my opinion.
    Dec 19, 2014. 01:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Buy Russian Market [View article]
    The "Russian discount" has grown. Ultimately, this discount will shrink, but I think Q1 2015 will be extremely difficult.
    Dec 19, 2014. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time To Buy Russian Market [View article]
    Update: Natalia Orlova, the chief economist of the Russian Alpha Bank (bank from the top ten of Russian banks), thinks that the economy will contract 7%-10% in Q1 2015 compared to Q1 2014. Realistic, in my view.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Questioning Credit Suisse's $1 Price Target For Cliffs Natural Resources [View article]
    So, around $550 mln for U.S. assets. There's still a gap, but a small one, and this is the worst-case scenario.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Questioning Credit Suisse's $1 Price Target For Cliffs Natural Resources [View article]
    I apologize for this. Please be kind, we all make mistakes sometimes... I was watching 3-months numbers and oddly thought they were 9-months numbers... And my apologies to CLF as well.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Questioning Credit Suisse's $1 Price Target For Cliffs Natural Resources [View article]
    Holy cow - yes! The current crisis in Russia seems to have affected my concentration. This makes my argument more bullish for sure.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Great Are Walter Energy's Survival Chances? [View article]
    Became slightly more pessimistic, but no dramatic change so far.
    Dec 18, 2014. 06:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Great Are Walter Energy's Survival Chances? [View article]
    Market sentiment is a great power.
    Dec 18, 2014. 04:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Great Are Walter Energy's Survival Chances? [View article]
    I think that term loan holders and secured bond owners could be unhappy with such an operation. Tender at $25 might not be for everyone, I guess. If done, this operation will meaningfully improve survival chances. However, I think that obstacles could be big.
    Dec 17, 2014. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Time To Be Bearish Again? [View article]
    They are bearish with a $10 target.
    Dec 15, 2014. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Evaluation Of Risks For Seadrill's Contract With Rosneft Jumps Like A Rabbit [View article]
    Yes, I am pessimistic on this. It's my view.
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:28 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Risks For Contract With Rosneft Increase Day By Day [View article]
    Russian ruble is in the free-fall. The situation with ruble is currently a catastrophe. The Central Bank did nothing to prevent it when the situation was just at the beginning, and now they try to put the genie back in the bottle, but nothing works so far. Rosneft could be interesting when oil and ruble stabilize at whatever level. Without stabilization, it will continue to fall. Gazprom's thesis is more or less the same, although I think there is more uncertainty with projects, costs, etc.
    Dec 12, 2014. 05:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Perspective From Russia - Part 6 [View article]
    It means that the government is selling this stake to the willing buyers.
    Dec 8, 2014. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
181 Comments
134 Likes