Comments on Walid Nasserdeen's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/walid-nasserdeen/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/122808-stimulus-or-bailout-perception-is-everything?source=feed#comment-405037 405037 Thu, 26 Feb 2009 17:32:24 -0500 government by the lawyers, of the lawyers, for the lawyers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122808-stimulus-or-bailout-perception-is-everything?source=feed#comment-404295 404295 Thu, 26 Feb 2009 09:12:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122808-stimulus-or-bailout-perception-is-everything?source=feed#comment-404229 404229 Thu, 26 Feb 2009 08:40:23 -0500
No, actually we can take to the streets to protest this monstrosity before it gets even worse. We don't have to sit back like docile sheep and get sheared. In Tampa, we are meeting at noon Friday at the Federal Courthouse to protest this abuse of taxpayers. All across the country, people are going to be rallying at "tea parties" to revolt against this attempt to corral us into the socialist trap.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112600-is-commercial-real-estate-the-next-to-decline?source=feed#comment-402040 402040 Tue, 24 Feb 2009 17:26:25 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112600-is-commercial-real-estate-the-next-to-decline?source=feed#comment-357739 357739 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 12:14:13 -0500
Not too long ago, investors were jumping into the commercial real estate fast lane, buying up office towers, apartment complexes, hotels, shopping malls and any spec property that promised to reap rewards through escalating values. But now things are not looking so rosy for commercial real estate.

Contractors, investors and developers are facing what could be the worst real estate crisis since the early 1990s. The crisis in the 1990s happened when federal tax breaks led to overinvestment and overbuilding. But the impending crisis is the result of cheap credit, which tempted developers to bid up the prices of existing properties creating a price bubble.

Once again, banks are left holding the bag. In the second quarter of 2008, banks held more than 50% of commercial real estate loans, with smaller, regional lenders having a relatively larger exposure. Regional banks are now waiting for a second wave of loan losses to hit, this time instead of toxic residential debt, it’s shopping centers, hotels and major residential and commercial construction projects. The charge-off rate for these loans is about 1.1% and growing.

The number of overdue commercial construction loans is on the rise, which portends a rise in defaults. In the third quarter of 2008, overdue loans had quadrupled from two years earlier for the same period, according to Federal Reserve data. That’s the highest spike since 1994.

Jeffrey DeBoer, president of the Real Estate Roundtable estimates that about $400 billion worth of commercial real estate mortgages will come due by the end of this year. But since many banks have stopped lending to any new construction projects, developers will have a hard time refinancing the hundreds of billions in loans already on the books.

The Roundtable is part of a real estate affinity group that's leaning on the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department to create a special lending program for the commercial mortgage-backed securities market. No decisions have been made, but Treasury did indicate that extending part of their financial bail-out package to this market sector is within the realm of possibility.

Meanwhile, major construction projects across the country are on hold. From churches where the membership is uncertain about spending funds, to universities that have seen their endowments collapse, to individual developers who aren’t willing to spend money in the current economic mess. Even architectural firms are feeling the pinch as skittish clients cancel large projects.

Even though the downturn in the commercial real estate hasn’t been as dramatic or as headline grabbing as pictures of homeowners sent packing, commercial defaults could deepen and prolong the recession. Moody's Economy.com estimates that commercial real estate losses could slice about $30 billion from our economic growth this year.

Many in the construction industry are pushing Congress to approve President-elect Obama's proposed stimulus plan to revive the economy and pour hundreds of billions of dollars into rebuilding the infrastructure. It could be enough to keep developers, construction workers, architects, engineers, heavy equipment manufactures and staff members employed and supplied with spending cash until the economy recovers.

But will Obama’s plan succeed in reviving the economy and boosting consumer confidence? Will he make good on his promise to spend those funds on rebuilding the country’s infrastructure? Will he even mange to get the necessary funds in the face of growing skepticism over missing money that banks received in the first stage of the bailout package? If things go according to plan, construction firms might be able to turn their attention to public works projects like bridges, roads and schools. When you consider the huge budget shortfalls of many states and municipalities, there appears to be a sizable backlog of projects in need of funding.

This comment was posted by Jose Roncal, co-author of "The Big Gamble: Are You Investing or Speculating?" - For more information, visit financialspeculation.com]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112600-is-commercial-real-estate-the-next-to-decline?source=feed#comment-346452 346452 Mon, 05 Jan 2009 11:52:47 -0500
www.concisetrading.blo.../
Ryan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112600-is-commercial-real-estate-the-next-to-decline?source=feed#comment-344646 344646 Fri, 02 Jan 2009 21:43:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112600-is-commercial-real-estate-the-next-to-decline?source=feed#comment-344585 344585 I am getting long srs myself. The compounding leverage works on > the upside as well as the down. > > That's my biggest play in 2009, along with jan. 2010 puts for homebuilders. > > > concisetrading.blogspo... > Ryan]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 18:59:12 -0500

On Jan 01 03:45 AM nayr wrote:

> I am getting long srs myself. The compounding leverage works on
> the upside as well as the down.
>
> That's my biggest play in 2009, along with jan. 2010 puts for homebuilders.
>
>
> concisetrading.blogspo...
> Ryan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112600-is-commercial-real-estate-the-next-to-decline?source=feed#comment-343362 343362 Thu, 01 Jan 2009 11:24:13 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112600-is-commercial-real-estate-the-next-to-decline?source=feed#comment-343149 343149 Thu, 01 Jan 2009 03:45:37 -0500
That's my biggest play in 2009, along with jan. 2010 puts for homebuilders.

concisetrading.blogspo...
Ryan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112600-is-commercial-real-estate-the-next-to-decline?source=feed#comment-342193 342193 Wed, 31 Dec 2008 01:52:48 -0500
"...About 160,000 stores will have closed this year and 200,000 more
could close next year, said Burt P. Flickinger III, managing director
of consulting firm Strategic Resource Group. That would be the
industry's biggest contraction in 35 years. In March and April of next
year, Flickinger expects 2,000 to 3,000 malls to close."

www.courant.com/news/n...

Or how about this?

"...Even to industry veterans who have lived through other downturns,
the precipitous decline in the Manhattan office market, especially in
Midtown, has been startling.


“We have fallen further faster than any time in the last 20 years,”
said Mitchell S. Steir, chief executive of Studley, a national
brokerage firm that represents tenants. “There has been more damage to real estate values in the last four months than in any other four-
month period. The pace with which it has occurred has been
astonishing.”

www.nytimes.com/2008/1...

Even debt refinancing through TARP can't save the REITS from massive declines in revenue.




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112600-is-commercial-real-estate-the-next-to-decline?source=feed#comment-342183 342183 The 'silver lining' - new commercial projects have come to a virtual > standstill. The is no 'overbuilding' going on looking out 12 months. > ProLogis, one of the most prolific 'spec' builders on the planet, > has only custom projects (Fully pre-leased) on the books. > > Commercial will be fine. > ]]> Wed, 31 Dec 2008 01:33:31 -0500

On Dec 30 10:27 PM CWest wrote:

> The 'silver lining' - new commercial projects have come to a virtual
> standstill. The is no 'overbuilding' going on looking out 12 months.
> ProLogis, one of the most prolific 'spec' builders on the planet,
> has only custom projects (Fully pre-leased) on the books.
>
> Commercial will be fine.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112600-is-commercial-real-estate-the-next-to-decline?source=feed#comment-342083 342083 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:27:00 -0500
Commercial will be fine.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112600-is-commercial-real-estate-the-next-to-decline?source=feed#comment-342012 342012 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 21:15:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112600-is-commercial-real-estate-the-next-to-decline?source=feed#comment-341280 341280 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 08:52:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108540-bull-bear-ratio-is-a-contrarian-indicator?source=feed#comment-319422 319422 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 22:57:09 -0500
So is that .... bullish? ;-)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108540-bull-bear-ratio-is-a-contrarian-indicator?source=feed#comment-318288 318288 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 14:03:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106524-the-baltic-dry-index-one-economic-indicator-worth-tracking?source=feed#comment-309505 309505 Tue, 18 Nov 2008 23:10:35 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106524-the-baltic-dry-index-one-economic-indicator-worth-tracking?source=feed#comment-309381 309381 Tue, 18 Nov 2008 18:48:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106524-the-baltic-dry-index-one-economic-indicator-worth-tracking?source=feed#comment-308668 308668 Tue, 18 Nov 2008 07:43:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103087-democrats-or-republicans-who-s-better-for-wall-street?source=feed#comment-298749 298749 If B. Obama is not elected and bush's economic policies are continued > under J. McCain, then we are going to be in for some very bad times > that we will not be able to climb out of for several generations! How right you are! Bush spent too much. But then, Obama will spend much more than Bush. He should put into a position similar to what FDR's was in back in 29. Just like FDR he can turn a difficult recession into a full blown depression. Fortunately we had a world war to pull us out of that government created abiss. Good news for those of us who are about to become citizens of the USSA... Obama's weak defense policy should make it more likely that we get saved by a nuclear attack. After it's all over we will find that the rich and powerful are richer and more powerful, just like before.]]> Wed, 05 Nov 2008 12:26:14 -0500

On Oct 31 10:46 AM sieraromero wrote:

> If B. Obama is not elected and bush's economic policies are continued
> under J. McCain, then we are going to be in for some very bad times
> that we will not be able to climb out of for several generations!


How right you are! Bush spent too much.

But then, Obama will spend much more than Bush. He should put into a position similar to what FDR's was in back in 29. Just like FDR he can turn a difficult recession into a full blown depression. Fortunately we had a world war to pull us out of that government created abiss. Good news for those of us who are about to become citizens of the USSA... Obama's weak defense policy should make it more likely that we get saved by a nuclear attack. After it's all over we will find that the rich and powerful are richer and more powerful, just like before.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103087-democrats-or-republicans-who-s-better-for-wall-street?source=feed#comment-296003 296003 Sat, 01 Nov 2008 23:40:46 -0400 1) Apply an 18 month delay time to the White House transition dates. While the market psychology may change overnight, real economic factors do not.
2) Don't compare Dems. & Rep. presidents; instead compare fiscal conservatives vs. fiscal liberals. This would move Kennedy into the conservative column and Nixon (& Ford?) into the liberal column.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103087-democrats-or-republicans-who-s-better-for-wall-street?source=feed#comment-295134 295134 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 11:13:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103087-democrats-or-republicans-who-s-better-for-wall-street?source=feed#comment-295078 295078 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 10:46:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103087-democrats-or-republicans-who-s-better-for-wall-street?source=feed#comment-294906 294906 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 06:13:38 -0400
but this is no longer true, and i really doubt in this terrible economic times that there would actually be much difference between obama and mccain.

i think bush is probably the worst president in history. But economically he was saddled with 9/11 which was not his doing (giving him the benefit of the doubt). Further, nixon was saddled with the oil embargo. i can think of no other presidents which faced massive external economic disruption other than bush and nixon. so this too distorts the analysis.

and is this not the trillionth article in seekingalpha on this subject??

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99986-using-etfs-to-beat-the-market-with-lower-risk?source=feed#comment-291819 291819 Mon, 27 Oct 2008 16:35:52 -0400
The relevance of the article is in showing the 'theoretical' benefit of using a leveraged ETF while systematically limiting risk. A strategy you could add on to any preexisting strategies you trade by.

The prominent message is the use of risk management not the relative performance of a leverage ETF.

The S&P and the correlated SSO are simply used as generic examples for relation. SSO presents itself as a double S&P and therefor is presented as such by the author.

If the correlation is less than such then simply shifting principal weights from 50/50 to 60/40 or the like, depending on your tolerance, solves any disputes.

I have used this strategy in the past. It is an alpha primary strategy and is very efficient if used correctly. While 'Jimmy F' is correct in stating that some market timing is involved it is usually assessed quarter to quarter....anything shorter was simply a result of being stopped out. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99986-using-etfs-to-beat-the-market-with-lower-risk?source=feed#comment-284961 284961 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 20:06:16 -0400
Bill, could you point me to a way to put on this trade that did not involve market timing, and leads consistent above market returns?

I don't dispute the usefulness of levered funds. But they are not long term holds. I bought SSO last Thursday afternoon, and blew out Tuesday morning.

Another example, this week was very volatile. SSO was up only a very small fraction more than SPY. Nowhere near twice as much. So 5 years, 5 days, a losing strategy. At the same time, I used SSO quite effectively over a three day period recently.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99986-using-etfs-to-beat-the-market-with-lower-risk?source=feed#comment-284884 284884 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 17:27:01 -0400 www.marketwatch.com/ne...={28D32D24-AB67-47A4-A...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99986-using-etfs-to-beat-the-market-with-lower-risk?source=feed#comment-284172 284172 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 21:33:24 -0400
Here are some returns to think about. Open end funds are used to avoid tracking error issues.

PTTAX Pimco Total Return 5 year annualized 3.96%

ULPIX Pro Funds UltraBull 5 year annualized -8.24%

VFINX Vanguard S&P Ind 5 year annualized -0.31%

From what I can see, you lose more money with leverage and bonds. Leverage costs money, and shouldn't be used unless you know you are right enough to cover the cost. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99986-using-etfs-to-beat-the-market-with-lower-risk?source=feed#comment-283689 283689 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 11:36:55 -0400
As was noted, SSO doesn't track 2x SPY. There was a great article in Institutional Investor's ETF Seventh Anniversary publication. Basically, because leveraged funds adjust leverage every day, they do better in trending markets. So if SPY is on a sustained rise, SSO has to upward adjust leverage every day which amplifies returns. Similarly, if SSO is on a sustained fall SSO cuts leverage every day which dampens losses. SSO does worse, however, in range bound markets, because after a down day it lowers leverage, which hurts it when the markets rise the following day, for example.

So this approach doesn't really reduce short term risk in terms of daily volatility. It will lose you less money in a major crash because of the adjusting of leverage noted above.]]>