Wall Diver

Dendreon: An Even Better Risk vs. Reward Scenario

I see a lot of articles in the press that discuss the 4.5-month median survival benefit in the Provenge D9901 trial and then elaborate on how the treatment only gives you an extra 4.5 months to live. This is the MEDIAN, people! It compares the length of survival of the person at the 50th percentile in the treatment arm vs the length of survival of the person at the 50th percentile in the control arm. Because so many of the people in the Provenge arm of D9901 survived at least three years when compared to the control arm (34% vs 11%, p=0.0046), the AVERAGE survival benefit for Provenge in this trial is probably closer to 10-12 months. From the briefing documents published on the FDA website, it's entirely possible that close to 25% of the Provenge arm patients in that trial are still alive, 5 1/2 to 7 YEARS after they received Provenge. The typical life expectancy of a hormone-refractory prostate cancer patient is in the 14 to 20 month range, although Taxotere chemotherapy somewhat improves that outcome.