Wall Street Advisors

Long/short equity
Wall Street Advisors
Long/short equity
Contributor since: 2013
Taking my profits here and will look for another buying opportunity on a pullback. ~50% gain in ~1 week.
More good news for uranium: China won't approve new coal mines until 2019.
"China, the world’s largest coal consumer, has decided to halt new coal mines approval for the next three years while it continues cutting output at existing operations, in a new effort to shrink both oversupply and a worsening pollution crisis."
Source: http://tinyurl.com/ncg...
Great news out this morning for OPK:
OPKO Health, Inc. (OPK) today announced the decision of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) to include 4Kscore® as a recommended test in the 2015 NCCN Guidelines for Prostate Cancer Early Detection. The panel concluded that the 4Kscore, as a blood test with greater specificity over the PSA test, is indicated for use prior to a first prostate biopsy or after a negative biopsy to assist patients and physicians in further defining the probability of high-grade cancer.
“We are pleased that the NCCN, an organization leading the way in the establishment of evidence-based guidelines for cancer diagnostics, is recommending the use of the 4Kscore test in the 2015 Prostate Cancer Early Detection Guidelines,” said David Okrongly, Ph.D., President of OPKO Diagnostics.
Do you think it is a buy now or wait until there is a resolution to the grade variance and shortfall?
Critical Investor, what are your thoughts on Midway down here at $0.35?
The grades apparently just keep getting better for PGLC as well. Pershing Gold Hits Highest Grade Gold to Date in Relief Canyon: http://yhoo.it/1BCM82N
News just out this morning.
I was moreso noting a few of Frost's recent stellar performances in the small-cap market, a market that is very difficult to have multiple successes in. The fact that he chose Pershing Gold as his small-cap gold investment, that I believe gold is starting a cyclical turnaround, the insider buying, and the uniqueness of Pershing's asset relative to its peers is what I was trying to highlight here.
Rebuttal to what? Just checking back in here. If you checked the filings yesterday, it shows Honig bought another 125,000 shares yesterday at $0.328: http://1.usa.gov/1MgAzm0
Market cap of Pershing is only ~$110m. Pershing appears to have everything needed to go into production (fully built processing facility, permits, etc) except for its PEA which they have stated should be out in Q2 2015. They also appear focused on expanding their resource through further drilling on their large land package. The drill results keep coming back better and better so this seems like a prudent decision. I anticipate production to begin end of 2015 or 2016 if a major looking for an upside play in Nevada does not come knocking before then.
Your analysis of Hale's preferred is, again, off base. Yes it sits as equity, but it has a 1.25x liquidation preference which sits senior to common, accrues dividends (interest), and maintains final say over any major decision.
Please PM me to discuss further, though, as I do not want to distract from the real buying opportunity here PGLC.
How are all the longs feeling a year later after Midway raised $25m at $0.83/share (which I called) and took on all the debt they need, which has handcuffed the stock even further since the company is so debt laden now and still has no clear vision on cash flow.
Even with the gold market rebounding and several other juniors and emerging producers rebounding as well, MDW sits at $0.69 right now. Almost a double on the short side from when I put this article out at $1.35, accurately predicted all of the developments to date, and got bashed in the comments section!
I'm working on an analysis of this company myself. Hopefully it stays under wraps a little longer. While it is difficult for anyone to peg a valuation on IP, I think the quarterly revenue and net income growth alone relative to MARA's current market cap speaks for itself. Viewed in any comparative way to other public IP companies, MARA below $30 looks very cheap. I believe the stock dividend coming in the next few weeks, which should serve as an effective forward stock split, should help increase trading liquidity which could attract more institutional investors.
The lebed promo several years ago was specifically mentioned under the risks section. I think it is pretty clear that was an independent promo because lebed saw it trading under cash and a very tight float, and that the company had nothing to do with that promo.
Clear misunderstanding. Hale stands in a better position if Midway DOES NOT make it to production, as Midway would be forced to liquidate and Hale would get the assets. That is why it is so dangerous for any exploration company that is not already producing to have any debt (or in this case preferred that is the equivalent/worse than debt). The debt usually ends up owning the company.
Hale has to approve it for that to happen which they would never do, that is the whole point. Why would they let someone else take their senior position? Not happening.
The $1.85 conversion price is for optics, it's a debt piece they didn't get a premium. Hale may trust management but how is midway going to be able to get a debt financing done when Hale will not give up its senior security position (why would they)?
The slowly returning signs of life are great to see for everyone involved in the sector and I have been very happy to see that, so we can agree there.
Nice research, but some of your key assumptions I strongly disagree with. And how exactly do you expect them to get debt financing? How familiar are you with Hale or with the terms of that financing? Hale has senior security and final say over any financing... That financing was good for them and no one else.
Grizzle, I have to strongly disagree with you here. Where is your track record? Ford's articles are some of the most thorough and most informational on SA. He also probably has one of the best track records on here because it's clear he doesn't just write about garbage. The small-cap space is a mine trap and Honig seems like a good person to follow as someone who is able to successfully traverse it. I don't think being a big player in the small-cap space automatically correlates to being a penny stock promoter and not sure why you have this impression. Care to elaborate with your own history and your next investment idea?
Icahn will do something with KDUS for both his position and his son Brett's name being on the company. $22 million in cash is plenty of firepower to do something very significant in terms of potentially building a multi-billion dollar market cap company. Especially with the leverage the Icahns have and the caliber of private companies that would love to get their name involved.
This information regarding the merger has been very public and thus I believe it is very safe to say that the shares outstanding post-merger is already being factored into the current share price.
Thanks for the comprehensive input.
Nice article Justin. I'm interested to hear other peoples' analysis on the Microsoft patents..
They just put out a press release with a thorough update on operations:
http://yhoo.it/14hNzC5
For the first settlement reached in Lexington's Bascom Research case they announced that as a result they would recognize revenue beginning 2Q 2013:
http://yhoo.it/13FbmJU
I think what separates Lexington's IP business model from some of the other players in the space is the ability to license and commercialize patents for monetization in addition to enforcement. This will allow them to realize consistent revenue and to begin realizing it more quickly.
Seattle,
I obviously don't believe the public is currently placing a fair valuation on the stock.
The existing business is not only a plus for growth potential but also for some reasons listed in my previous response regarding proposed legislation that could harm NPEs, which DSS will not be.
Maybe not the biggest risk, but most imminent. If the merger does not go through then the IP patent success is a moot point for DSS shareholders.
As mentioned these plays can be volatile.
This could certainly have a big impact on the whole sector should it go through. I think it would end up being a net positive for DSS, however. This proposed legislation would really hurt NPEs, so much so that it would end up benefiting DSS since it has an operating business line and is not an NPE.
NPE's can currently go to the International Trade Commission to seek injunctions. They can go to the district court to seek damages but have not been able to go the district court for injunctions since 2006. The proposed legislation would no longer allowe NPE's to seek injunction through the ITC.
The clean up would also rid the courts of frivolous litigation and move trials through the system quicker, meaning less money on legal fees and faster time period to realize damages.
The clean up could cause real issues for quite a few current NPE's, leaving a higher quantity and quality of IP portfolios for DSS to possibly pursue.
When it translates to something beyond testimonials, and when they clean some house from a management perspective, I will certainly take it into account.
My analysis includes but also goes beyond number-crunching, and also beyond individual testimonials of a particular product.
Here is an excerpt from a message I sent after the article was released on pro and before there was any move:
"Although I am short it myself, a primary purpose of the article was moreso to shed some light on management and help convince retail holders to get out now after the recent run-up."