by John Nyaradi

At Wednesday's closing bell, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) and its related ETF were 157 points (or almost 11 percent) above its 200-day moving average. The only time we have seen a wider gap between the S&P's 200-day MA and its closing level was back in March of 2000, just before the dot-com crash. Will history repeat or only rhyme, and in Yogi Berra's famous words, "Are you ready for déjà vu all over again?"

The stock indices cannot keep going up forever (contrary to what you may have been told by your favorite television stock market commentator). At this point, multiple technical indicators are flashing warnings that markets are overbought and subject to a significant correction.

Beyond the fact that the S&P 500 SPY is closing at extreme levels above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, its relative strength index is also near overbought conditions which begin

by John Nyaradi

Newton's First Law Of Motion suggests that an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force and in the world of ETFs, this is known as "the trend is your friend," since investment classes in motion tend to stay in motion until something acts upon them to change the trend.

April turned out to be a very lucrative month for many investors. The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) advanced 1.8 percent during the month Many stocks, sectors and ETFs made big gains. On the other hand, while the bulls were on the rampage, many ETFs and sectors were left in the dust. Worse yet, many sectors and ETFs actually declined during April. This would be easy to understand if we were talking about inverse ETFs. Unfortunately, some sectors had no excuse for falling in April. They were simply the wrong place to

By John Nyaradi

A sea change is underway for Apple Computer and the tech sector and major dangers and opportunities will unfold as this tidal wave rolls ashore. Long before Apple Computer (AAPL) became the most watched stock in the world, a book called The Personal Computer Book by Peter McWilliams was published back in 1982.

Apple still makes headlines today but many of the exciting companies, which were introduced to us in The Personal Computer Book, have either died or they have been consumed by other corporations (in the manner that Compaq was cannibalized by Hewlett Packard (HPQ)). Kaypro Computer, the manufacturer of a metal-encased unit which was as portable as a sewing machine, filed for bankruptcy in 1992. Digital Equipment Corporation (or DEC) was consumed by Compaq in 1998 before Compaq was eaten by HP in 2002. Commodore International, which brought you the Commodore 64 and

By John Nyaradi. The U.S. stock market suffered its worst losses in five months as earnings reports look mediocre and economic reports disappoint.

For the week, major stock market indexes posted sharp declines as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) lost 2.1%, the S&P 500 declined (SPY fell 2.1% and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) slid 2.7%. The Russell 2000 (IWM) fell 3.2%.

Major U.S. stock indexes are fading from recent record highs and now have broken significant support levels with the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite falling below their respective 50 day moving averages.

On My ETF Radar

The S&P 500 which is a proxy for the U.S. stock market has fallen 2.4% from its recent record high and now rests at significant support levels.

(click to enlarge)

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the chart of the S&P 500 above we can see how the major stock market index has

by John Nyaradi

Gold ETFs took a hard fall on April 12 and retail investors have been slow to return to gold ETFs, the most popular of which is the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD). Since GLD bases its share price on a ten percent basis of the spot price for gold, GLD experienced the same swoons gold experienced on April 12 and 15.

Gold and gold ETFs provide retail investors the opportunity to invest in their favorite metal in the same manner as they would purchase stocks. Futures contracts and physical metal are no longer the only vehicles for these investments. Enhanced participation in the precious metals market by retail investors by way of gold ETFs has moved more smoothly than many commentators originally anticipated. GLD investors were able to benefit from the extraordinary advance in the price of gold after having purchased shares in the ETF since 2005, when

First Solar stock (FSLR) triggered a solar flare last week on the Nasdaq as circuit breakers were triggered on Tuesday, April 9.

The event was caused by a massive amount of short-covering in First Solar stock after the company issued impressive 2013 guidance, with full-year earnings expected between $4.00 and $4.50 a share on sales of between $3.8 billion and $4 billion. Analysts had been expecting to see earnings guidance of $3.51 a share in 2013 on sales of approximately $3.1 billion. Trading in First Solar stock was halted on the Nasdaq exchange during Tuesday's session, in accordance with the guidelines on triggered circuit breakers.

Previous to last week's solar flare, the sector has suffered through some awful growing pains. The financial crisis resulted in reduced subsidies for development in the rapidly-advancing photovoltaic power industry. Meanwhile, China increased government financing of its solar industry, having already established a strong presence

by John Nyaradi

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) gained 2% while the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) and Nasdaq (NYSEARCA:QQQ) also posted better than 2% weekly gains.

On My ETF Radar

In the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) below, we can see how the index has now returned to overbought levels with RSI of greater than 70, however, momentum as represented by MACD has returned to positive ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average now approaches 15,000 as it continues setting all time highs.

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

ETF News You Can Really Use

The advance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) continues to outpace the Dow Jones Transports and Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) which have yet to return to recent highs, and this action is seen as a warning by some analysts as these two major indexes are not confirming the recent move by the

by John Nyaradi

After a steep climb to the top of the hill, major U.S. stock indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) and the S&P 500 (SPY) have recently reached record highs. Will the climb continue or is the U.S. stock market at the top of the roller coaster and about to take a historic plunge?

More and more signs point to a plunge for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and major indexes rather than a continued climb.

Here's why:

1. Excessively bullish sentiment: The Investment Company Institute reports that inflows to mutual funds from retail investors is running at high levels, with $1.05 billion coming in the week ending February 27 and a whopping $5.02 billion during the week of March 20th as mom and pop investors scramble to buy stocks after missing most of the recent rally.

The Investment Company Institute also reports that the total

By John Nyaradi

Bond market flashes warning signal to stocks and only one of these asset classes can be right.

As everyone knows, the bond market and the stock market tend to move inversely to each other. As stocks rise, bond prices fall and bond yields rise. As stock market prices fall, bond market prices rise and bond market yields falls.

This is simply a reflection of the flow of capital between “risk on” and “risk off” assets and tends to be reliable over long time frames. However, in today’s central bank influenced, Wizard of Oz economy, interesting divergences are now taking place between the bond market and the stock market.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the chart above, its easy to see how 10 year bond yields and the S&P 500 tend to move in harmony. As the S&P 500 rises in price, bond yields tend to rise and

By John Nyaradi

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued making history on Thursday as it logged a tenth straight positive close on lower than average volume. The S&P 500 also rose to close just below its all time closing high last seen in October, 2007.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 83 points, the S&P 500 climbed 0.56% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.31%. The Russell 2000 powered higher with a gain of 0.91%. Oil gained 0.66% to finish the day at $93.13/bbl. while gold closed up 0.15% at $1588.90/oz.

Unemployment reports were generally positive yesterday as weekly jobless claims fell to 332,000 and helped power the Dow Jones Industrial average to its longest win streak since 1996. VIX, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, also known as the “fear index,” fell to 11.30, a multi-year low not seen since 2007.

However, with trading volumes down

By John Nyaradi

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) has gained 613 points, 4.4%, on a closing basis since February 25th, in a liquidity fueled rally that has yielded year to date gains of 9.8%. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed on Friday at 1551, just 14 points, 0.9%, below its highest close on October 9, 2007.

On My ETF Radar

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the chart of the S&P 500 above, we can see how the index now approaches overbought levels with short term momentum turning positive. Recent action has been largely on low volume and in the face of significant fundamental headwinds. The S&P 500 faces multi-year resistance at current levels and approaches those from overbought levels.

The S&P 500 and entire U.S. stock market now stand at a significant turning point, a triple top stretching back to 2000. A sustained break higher sets the stage for yet

By John Nyaradi

The Dow reaches another high, for a third "Dow" in a row

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached another all time high, for the third "Dow" in a row. Yesterday’s magic number for the Dow was 14,329 with a .23% increase, likely spurred by good unemployment claims data released yesterday. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose .18%, the PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) added .26%, and the iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) added .48%.

So, the question still remains: will the bulls keep on charging past yesterday’s third "Dow" in a row or are we looking at a serious correction in the near future? By a daily technical standpoint, the bulls might still have some steam, as the daily MACD is at a very high 21.211, despite the fact that the Index’ RSI has reached nearly overbought levels of 68.95.

From a

by John Nyaradi

U.S. stock market indexes rise on Friday as sequestration cuts go into force.

With the sequestration deadline come and gone, U.S. markets and major indexes advanced on Friday, shrugging off any worries about the mandatory reduction in government spending, at least for now.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) gained 0.25% on Friday, while the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) advanced 0.23%. The Nasdaq 100 (NYSEARCA:QQQ) climbed 0.33% and the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) jumped 0.4%, as investors ended a volatile week with a good day. Major U.S. indexes also finished the week with modest gains as they try to reclaim all time highs last seen in October, 2007.

On My ETF Radar

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

A quick glance at the chart of the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) demonstrates the continued sideways action of this major U.S. index as investors try to determine if sequestration cuts will be a bad

By John Nyaradi

Sequestration spending cuts are scheduled to start at midnight Thursday, and, after having been ignored for most of the week by U.S. investors, moved to the front burner with a steep sell off into market close on Thursday, February 28th.

For the day, major U.S. stock indexes closed with small losses after having been higher through most of the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) fell 0.15%, the S&P 500 (SPY) dropped 0.09%, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) slid 0.10% and the Russell 2000 (IWM) was the lone winner with a gain of 0.13%.

In other major markets, gold (GLD) lost 1.0% and oil (USO) finished mostly flat with a decline of -0.01%.

So on the surface, it was a relatively quiet day, however, the real action came in the last few minutes of the trading day as major stock indexes took a waterfall descent as depicted

by John Nyaradi

Index ETFs have temporarily wiped out Monday's wipe out, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) rose 1.26%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) rose 1.31%, the PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) rose 1.02%, and the iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM) rose 1.05%. The DJIA was Wednesday's big winner, as the index registered a new 5 year high since October 2007.

Despite the looming sequester deadline for the U.S. Federal Government quickly approaching this Friday, Index ETFs and stocks had a powerful day today, likely due to (surprise, surprise) Dr. Ben stating that QE3 would continue even with the U.S. economy improving. Some analysts suggested that the positive Pending Home Sales report released this morning helped in yesterday's rally, which it most certainly did, but let's be realistic: Dr. Ben spoke, investors welled up with tears of joy, and markets went berserk.

Considering that

By John Nyaradi

Friday brought a rally for the S&P 500 Index (SPY) and other major U.S. stock indexes. However, for the week, the S&P 500 Index and most other major U.S. indexes declined.

The S&P 500 Index fell 0.3% on the week, the Nasdaq (QQQ) lost 1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) eked out a 0.1% gain, managing to barely reclaim the coveted 14,000 level with a closing price of 14,000.57.

In other major markets, gold (GLD) gained 0.19% on Friday to close at $1579.60 while oil (USO) added 0.3% to finish the week at $93.27. Both gold and oil suffered sharp declines as the future of the Federal Reserve's program of quantitative easing came into doubt after release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday.

On My ETF Radar

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the chart of the S&P 500 Index above, we can see

by John Nyaradi

The U.S. stock market and its major indexes drifted sideways for yet another week as economic reports were mixed and the clock ticks towards the sequestration deadline of March 1st. Stock market participants remain complacent as VIX, the CBOE Volatility Index, remains near historic lows and major indexes remain overbought. The next two weeks are likely to provide a catalyst, one way or other, for future directional moves.

On My ETF Radar

As described, the stock market remains overbought and momentum has slowed dramatically after the recent run up. Volume remains low and daily moves are extremely tight, suggesting a lack of commitment to push the market higher.

Furthermore, stock market breadth is beginning to weaken as the percent of all stocks above their 50 and 200 day moving averages is in decline and various breadth indicators are turning down.

In the chart below, we can see

By John Nyaradi

U.S. stocks and ETFs posted a big January with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 5.8% for the month, along with the S&P 500 notching a 5% monthly gain. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 remain at overbought levels and need to move sideways to unwind overbought conditions.

The S&P 500 closed just below the psychologically and technically important 1500 level, U.S. stocks declined Thursday after a report showed jobless claims rose, but benchmark indexes still produced one of Wall Street’s strongest starting months in years.

The gains in January bode well for the rest of the year as all of Stock Traders Almanac’s January Indicators, the Santa Rally, the first five days and the January barometer, all came in positive. This has happened 27 times since since 1950 and was followed by yearly gains 25 times. Read “January Indicator Trifecta Leads

by John Nyaradi

After the fiscal cliff was resolved, at least for the moment, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit a new high not seen since 2007 and money started flowing back into stocks and ETFs. According to data published last week, more than $18 billion flowed into stocks and ETFs the week of January 9th, some of the highest inflows of assets in 20 years.

Still, on a technical basis, stocks and ETFs remain stalled at significant resistance levels and will need to break higher for this rally to be sustained. Major index ETFs, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are approaching short term overbought levels and so could be due for a pause or short correction, however, bullish sentiment remains strong and a break above current levels would likely lead to a sustained and possibly very strong rally.

On My ETF Radar

(click

[originally published 1/11/2013]

By John Nyaradi

Index ETFs finished mixed and flat today, despite a couple of big moves. The SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) lost .01%, despite the S&P 500 Index being within 100 points of its all time high. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) gained .13%, the PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) gained .13%, and the iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) lost .13%, despite the Russell 2000 Index reaching its all time high of 881 earlier today.

Today was the day of "despites," as Index ETFs finished mixed and flat despite Wall Street seeing the largest weekly inflow of cash into equity funds since 2008. Index ETFs finished mixed and flat despite the Russell 2000 Index reaching an all time high of 881. And Index ETFs finished mixed and flat despite S&P 500 being within 100 points of its all time