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  • What Wal-Mart's Promotion Of The Apple iPhone Means For Both Companies [View article]
    I am an Apple bull but how sure are you that the discount is fully borne by WMT?
    Dec 19, 2012. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - Citigroup's 2 Lamentable Apple Calls (12/18/12) [View article]
    Cramers call on Apple at 700 was a buy. As Apple was sliding he kept saying do not trade Apple invest in it. At 530 he made a sell call saying there are no new products only to see the stock rally to 600 before correcting back to 500.
    Dec 19, 2012. 09:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting On Apple's Operations Team And Gross Margins [View article]
    The sales number on Iphones dont seem to agree with your argument. On top of that people have nothing to lose when they upgrade eventhough the upgraded feature set might not blow you out. I upgraded my 4 to a 5 for 250 dollars and sold my 4 on ebay for 250 bucks. I get a better phone with 0 out. Sounds like a winning proposition for Apple.
    Dec 13, 2012. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting On Apple's Operations Team And Gross Margins [View article]
    I am just copy pasting skippie's comments here. No one can say it better.

    "Have you noticed how the bulls offer facts and the bears offer nothing but opinions, innuendo, Job's absence and the "law of large numbers?""
    Dec 13, 2012. 01:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Truth About Apple's Q4 Results [View article]
    Gary.

    I have a question on the OI and E income for of $381 mn project by PO for Q1.

    Is this income the retun that they generate on their cash investments net charges for hedging? If that is the case it looks like a lousy return to me at less than 1% a year. Am I missing something?
    Dec 13, 2012. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting On Apple's Operations Team And Gross Margins [View article]
    Great Article Gary. This is one of the well thought out and reasoned article I have read on Apple lately. I have highlighted the reasons why low gross margins have no persistence and will return to 40%+ level

    1. The average of Gross margin beat over the last 8 quarters comes to 300 bps. If we apply that we are at 39%. If we apply the GM beat for Q1 over the last 2 years we are at 40+%.

    2. Iphone 5 yields have tremendously improved and low yields at the beginning of the quarter when PO guided is no longer an issue.

    3. Lower priced product does not mean lower margins for the company. The whole myth that Ipad mini is going to pull GM down is a myth. Even if Ipad mini comes in at 30% GM there are other product lines like Itunes and Iphones which have much higher GM. A smaller product like Ipad mini dragging the entire margins down is an outright lie.

    4. Economies of scale for Iphone. I remember when PO made the point that the economies of scale for Iphone are tremendous. The moment they go past 30 mn phones the GM grows at a much faster clip than it did for the first 30 mn phones.


    Another point to be noted in general is that 35% margins in the long run is not a bad margin for a company trading at 9 times earnings without cash. Even if Apple grows at 20% over the next 5 years and we assume our margins go down to 35% we double our earnings in the next 5 years along with a cash pile atleast double of where we are currently. The stock is not trading like one with 35% GM growing at 20%. It is trading like the GM is 20% and the company is not growing
    Dec 13, 2012. 11:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Be Worth $1111, But Shares Won't Get There Anytime Soon [View article]
    They can definitely get creative with this. If the 80 bn abroad is making around 4% a year, I am sure they can issue recallable bonds using cash outside USA as collateral for the same amount over a longer period for few bps more. This way you have literally swapped your foreign cash for domestic ones.
    Nov 29, 2012. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Be Worth $1111, But Shares Won't Get There Anytime Soon [View article]
    I still think the Buyback and Dividend are small. I don't see any situation where Apple needs more than $100 bn in cash. Apple should have a policy to distribute anything net of 100 bn in cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks. I feel more strongly about buybacks. They harassed the share all the way to 505 and this would not have happened had there been a much more robust buyback program.
    Nov 28, 2012. 11:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Be Worth $1111, But Shares Won't Get There Anytime Soon [View article]
    If Apple were to do a massive takeover they could do it in a flash. 20% as part of the market-cap is not much and people who need more than 2% return from a companies cash pile should rather invest in an MLP.
    Nov 28, 2012. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Any thoughts on BTU?
    Nov 27, 2012. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EOG Resources: Inside The Numbers [View article]
    Pompano.

    EOG has a proven track record of monetizing their assets quarter after quarter without having to give excuses like others in every single conference call. Mike Papa is a brilliant CEO who has consistently delivered. They just dont talk about barrels of proven reserves but abou wells drilling and returning value to shareholders at a rate lower than the cost of capital.
    Nov 27, 2012. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Finally Be Turning A Corner To The Downside [View article]
    I am laughing again because it is probably the quickest 15% bounce for a mega cap the size of Apple.
    Nov 26, 2012. 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 4-To-1 Bet On An Apple Rebound [View article]
    Very true but the same call writers will run scrambling and buy the calls that they wrote if AAPL starts moving up on holiday news. These call writers are probably up huge and would want to protect their upside instead of getting slaughtered
    Nov 16, 2012. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 4-To-1 Bet On An Apple Rebound [View article]
    It is a shame that this trades at 518 as I am typing. 11.8 time trailing and 8 times FY 2013 when you subtract the cash. Apple is trading at a lower multiple than Alcoa. That says it all
    Nov 16, 2012. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy This Bakken Juggernaut [View article]
    Bret.

    EOG or CLR or WLL?
    Nov 15, 2012. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
474 Comments
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