Wall Street Teacher

Deep value, special situations, biotech, micro-cap
Wall Street Teacher
Deep value, special situations, biotech, micro-cap
Contributor since: 2008
XON is currently trading @ "prove it to me" valuation. Energy is a key Q1 event. If the demonstration plant ramps, that should put a floor under the stock. I suspect that since they launched a second energy partnership (beyond isobutanol) XON is seeing good traction in NG conversion. Joe Barton is a big believer here. Oxitec and Zika virus remain a wild card.
Added on the dip. Not sure if that was brave or sillly!
I remain very long this issue. I would not be surprised if one of the big boys blink and take an equity stake (via partnership) or even decide this is far cheaper to own now vs. mid or post trial as the data begins to read out.
My vote is for a third party buyou5. Kirk needs to move oncology into able hands and build his war chest to fund out energy, food and a myriad of other ventures. ZIOP sold by EOY .
Great detective work. Keep up your earnest efforts!
Wait; based on ownership; I want a vote on the issue!
I am still on the fence here. There is value in the property but the question remains as to whether any potential acquirer might take a shot at these levels or wait until the debt situation becomes critical. In the right hands, the debt load cost could be trimmed 200-300 basis points and this becomes a VERY valuable property. At this point I am remaining on the sidelines here. Perhaps I might look @ SAND (risky) or SLW(larger but tax overhang issue) in the space since the financials are stronger.
Hi.
I was long this one on and off for a few years. I exited when the cap table become too leveraged. Regarding joint venture possibilities, how does the 52.5 % of the gold stream being delivered to Royal Gold @ $435 per ounce effect the your view of the chance of TC finding a white knight (Chinese or otherwise)? That agreement has been the stumbling block for me. It seems that even a fairly distinct rise in the price of gold does not benefit TC to the extent that their gold reserves/production potential suggest since more than 1/2 is being paid out at a fixed rate.
Thank you for your thoughts. I am also taking a long hard look @ Silver Wheaton and TC in the space. Tough times to be on either side of the equation(streamers or producers).
I don't understand your comment:
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"When FDA approves it" That is a huge WHEN + IF = Long time
The author did not mention how Cormedix is going to finance the trials?
Numbers don't lie, we know Cormedix will run out of money by the end of the year, and their only option is to sell more stocks ATM, or something else. But either way it’s the current shareholders values that will dilute.
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Run out of $$$$??? Did you read the last financial statement or listen to the CC? ("We ended the quarter with a cash balance of approximately $8.9 million. On April 1 through April 30, our cash position net of market operational spend continue to improve to approximately $18 million driven mainly the excise of warrants and options, which resulted in an aggregate gross proceeds with approximately $8 million." ) Also, they have had an ATM running this quarter. Very odd assertion given the above facts.
Thank you! Thank you! Thank You! This was an informative article that helps to set the record straight. I believe the short pieces and lawsuit(s) are part of a very sophisticated effort. I would love to see a list of recent FTDs (fail-to-deliver positions) and would not be surprised if the timely appearance of the article was linked to same. I cannot divine the author's true motivations or intentions but I continue to ponder why why one would expend so much time and energy on an issuer as small as CorMedix especially given Elliot/Evercore's involvement. Elliot is a tough negotiator known to perform VERY thorough due diligence. IF this is a fraud, as opined by the (short opined) author of the prior article, Elliot would not risk its reputation to help this issuer to the extent that it has over the last 5 years.
I have had the opportunity of sitting down with both Drs. Gelbfish and Pfaffle and continue to believe that Neutrolin will pass a PHIII trial by a wide margin and given the highly favorable cost/benefit, soon become SOC in dialysis, oncology, the ER and other settings.
GLTA,
WST
These are the times for longs to take a deep breath and examine what has occurred vs. all of the smoke in mirrors created by the doubt sowers. QIDP/GAIN Act designation is not granted to "me too" products. In reality, we are simply in the midst of a sales process that is taking longer than many had hoped for. Evercore is a world class banker. If there is a good offer out there, they will find it. I still believe this gets sold for a significant premium to today's valuation. If not, they likely have a robust enough balance sheet (based on the ATM and recent warrant exercise) to consider partnering or other options.
I am unsure what occurred in the German courts yesterday--perhaps we see a PR on Monday. The market has already written off CRMD's EU efforts so any positive news on that front represents upside.
The wild card here remains Elliot's involvement. It is a small position for them but Elliot is known to be an extremely astute and engaged investor. Why the shorts would poke an 800lb gorilla by including Elliot's name in this article is beyond me.
I have been a buyer below $4 this week and will continue to add. Valuation at these levels is...... COMPELLING.
Russell gets reconstituted tomorrow. It should make for an interesting upcoming week. Price action was odd today---lots of big offers being flashed and pulled.
Little CRMD seems to have become a battleground stock. Why would Adam Feuerstein tweet about the company and then question this PR in his mailbag "column"? It seems odd that he even knows this microcap's name. Russell inclusion kicks in next week. Round #1 of unfair business practices case being argued on July 3rd. Fingers crossed(long this one).
This gets sold. Efficacious drug (see NUMP data) plus GAIN Act status plus world class banker (Evercore)likely results in a good sale price. I think we see a buyout price far north of here that is part cash and likely a two tranche CVR (one for PHIII approval and one for EU litigation). Remember, Evercore is here at the (likely)behest of Elliot. They will look under every stone to find the right fit.
As for the Los Vegas trip----the author should be aware that attendees at that meeting cumulatively own (at least) a few million shares. This was not your typical retail investor gathering.
Note: Dr. Pfaffle's sale(s) are immaterial to his overall position size (2 or 3% ??). He has been engaged with CRMD for several years and has worked tirelessly. Also, Dr. Pfaffle taken VERY LITTLE in the way of cash compensation. Give the guy a break!
More NUMP data coming in London.
As the longest term CRMD Bull (Check my track record and articles< I find the recent selling pressure both understandable and inevitable. The stock had a great run and now they have an ATM running, The last two presentations by the CEO were lackluster(I am being charitable). These are the times to evaluate if Good Banker/good drug/ trumps uncertainty and innuendo. I still believe this is sold at a SIGNIFICANT PREMIUM to current SP.
Yet another poorly written attack piece. I wish they would have at least gotten the name correct(Coremedix???) As for the Dr. Rodenwald innuendo----SILLY. This is Elliot's show and they have brought in Evercore to find a home for little CRMD.
Increased market size projection and dramatic COG reduction announced this week make this an even more valuable asset. Evercore should preside over a VERY lively auction.
I would only be guessing.....
Hi-
Thank you for the kind words. I read constantly and when I think a company has potential I talk with management extensively. Finding and able and honest management team is perhaps the most important aspect. I have seen great products sunk by poor execution.
As for the deal; closing usually take several weeks from the announcement of an agreement. I would be very surprised if this has not been sold (deal agreed to) within 45 days. We got lucky on Neutrolin's garnering of QIDP since infection has now moved front and center. This product has broad applicability and a 10.5 year exclusivity period. It is simply to juicy of an asset to pass up. I expect a faitly robust auction and thank God that Elliot brought in Evercore. They are top shelf bankers and will find us a good deal.
Good Luck,
WST
I am not even sure if the decision as to whether or not to negotiate is till in CRMDs hands. I think the Gremanic Trio may have lost their window to settle. Any of the majors will quickly close the manufacturing cost gap and will initiate an endless series of lawsuits. This will soon get very ugly. As for may, I think CRMD is gone by then so I am not sure who from the predecessor shows up in court.
Stunningly good data set at this weekend's conference. Wonderful asset with applicability in many healthcare settings. All the more reason that this will be a VERY competitive auction. I think this soon holds a nine handle and then we continue our march upward.
I feel the same way about CRMD. Another "cost saver" in the catheter care space. The company is likely on the block since Elliot Management has brought in Evercore to "explore strategic options". I always thought they would be a good fit for KERYX but the recent management shakeup means Keryx is more likely focused on the rollout than expanding its renal portfolio
http://seekingalpha.co...
http://seekingalpha.co...
This one's for sale in the catheter space. I wonder if DaVita or Fresenius are in the mix?
Interesting hit piece from TruthSweeper(OK, StreetSweeper). I AM NOY BUYING their half-truths and innuendo. Registration of shares does not mean same will be sold. Elliot is the largest shareholder and they have brought in Evercore for a reason. Positive NUMP data in EU is far in excess of PHIII bar.. This gets sold...........
Interesting "article" this week from StreetSweeper. It seemed more than a bit disingenuous---perhaps even designed to mislead. Then again, who can ever judge another's intent? Here is the face behind the TruthSweeper. Draw your own conclusions:

Hunter Adams, a member of the expert advisory board for The Street Sweeper, understands stock manipulation firsthand. Adams entered the securities industry 15 years ago with a focus on high-risk penny stocks. He quickly became an expert at establishing shell corporations, executing reverse mergers and selling both equity and convertible debt in speculative small-cap companies. His career ended in 2001, when government investigators accused him of manipulating worthless penny stocks. He pled guilty to two conspiracy charges -- for securities fraud and money laundering -- and served time in prison for his crimes. Years later, he pled guilty to racketeering charges, fully cooperated with the government and accepted full responsibility for his actions. Today, he has embraced a life of reform and now hopes to help protect the public by exposing others who tread in the same murky waters he once swam in. To contact him directly, please send an email to hunter@thestreetsweepe...
Here is the face behind the TruthSweeper. Draw your own conclusions:

Hunter Adams, a member of the expert advisory board for The Street Sweeper, understands stock manipulation firsthand. Adams entered the securities industry 15 years ago with a focus on high-risk penny stocks. He quickly became an expert at establishing shell corporations, executing reverse mergers and selling both equity and convertible debt in speculative small-cap companies. His career ended in 2001, when government investigators accused him of manipulating worthless penny stocks. He pled guilty to two conspiracy charges -- for securities fraud and money laundering -- and served time in prison for his crimes. Years later, he pled guilty to racketeering charges, fully cooperated with the government and accepted full responsibility for his actions. Today, he has embraced a life of reform and now hopes to help protect the public by exposing others who tread in the same murky waters he once swam in. To contact him directly, please send an email to hunter@thestreetsweeper
StreetSweeper issued a very questionable "article" re: CRMD this week. Here is the face behind the TruthSweeper. Draw your own conclusions:

Hunter Adams, a member of the expert advisory board for The Street Sweeper, understands stock manipulation firsthand. Adams entered the securities industry 15 years ago with a focus on high-risk penny stocks. He quickly became an expert at establishing shell corporations, executing reverse mergers and selling both equity and convertible debt in speculative small-cap companies. His career ended in 2001, when government investigators accused him of manipulating worthless penny stocks. He pled guilty to two conspiracy charges -- for securities fraud and money laundering -- and served time in prison for his crimes. Years later, he pled guilty to racketeering charges, fully cooperated with the government and accepted full responsibility for his actions. Today, he has embraced a life of reform and now hopes to help protect the public by exposing others who tread in the same murky waters he once swam in. To contact him directly, please send an email to hunter@thestreetsweepe...
Here is the face behind the TruthSweeper. Draw your own conclusions:

Hunter Adams, a member of the expert advisory board for The Street Sweeper, understands stock manipulation firsthand. Adams entered the securities industry 15 years ago with a focus on high-risk penny stocks. He quickly became an expert at establishing shell corporations, executing reverse mergers and selling both equity and convertible debt in speculative small-cap companies. His career ended in 2001, when government investigators accused him of manipulating worthless penny stocks. He pled guilty to two conspiracy charges -- for securities fraud and money laundering -- and served time in prison for his crimes. Years later, he pled guilty to racketeering charges, fully cooperated with the government and accepted full responsibility for his actions. Today, he has embraced a life of reform and now hopes to help protect the public by exposing others who tread in the same murky waters he once swam in. To contact him directly, please send an email to hunter@thestreetsweepe...
Elliot is not an investment bank. I am done wasting time in senseless back and forth. Good luck.
http://bit.ly/1CtBw8n
http://bit.ly/1CtBvkF
I have been in this one for a few years. Trust me, IT WILL BE SOLD. Elliot did not engage Evercore for the fun of it. NUMP data out of EU is very strong and will build the case for making this product SOC worldwide. Deal packets are being distributed(per CC). I think we soon see double digits.
Also, I suspect many of the bashers are simply trying to pick up cheap shares. Let the "PSUEDO SHORTS" continue their spin games. Soon enough, the riddle will be solved.
Also (in the hemodialysis setting) a patient could potentially be using this product for 20 or 30 years. This will produce very solid revenue streams for the acquirer.
"Real World" NUMP data is accruing in EU. The pharma-economic argument is being laid out. Remember, anti-microbials doe not develop resistance---critical in long term use setting such as hemodialysis. . I suspect at some point this becomes SOC worldwide.
I an not sure he is really short. In this case with Elliot and a world class investment banker involved many of the "shorts" are likely longs trying to pick up cheap shares.
This was a well researched article. Kodos to the author keeping his "eye" on the ball. (I could not resist)
Nice thorough job. If we end up anywhere near these takeout assumptions I will be a happy man indeed!