Walter Gault

Walter Gault
Contributor since: 2011
Company: Sabrient Systems
Good catch, something wasn't adding up there. However, its charts on Yahoo Finance and FreeStockCharts only go back for a year.
Usually Morningtar is the one of the first to have ex-div dates, but I have not seen it either. I don't think it was on the shareholder meeting date?
Thanks for the comment and insight Caiman. I read your article on the riskiness of investing Argentina. I cannot disagree about the historic volatility and economic instability in the region due to the government's reputation.
And the link you provided on the cell and data outage damages the the government is requiring reimbursement for is added weight.
I guess I can't help playing devil's advocate at this point...In the face of YPF nationalization and no dividend, do you think the beast's belly will ever be satisfied so to speak, or will it continue devour until everything is regulated? And will TEO really cut their dividend to improve their relationship with the gov't?
In this article I discussed the lack of a credible news source regarding TEO's dividend. Reuters has now adjusted this link to affirm Pagina 12's claim that TEO will not pay a dividend.
http://reut.rs/HgBoq1
At the time of this article's writing, Reuters described Pagina 12's claim as lacking sources, and unavailable for comment. Now, it seems that the source is verified.
However, shareholder's will still vote on the dividend April 27th.
For those you who read part II of this article, I discussed the lack of a credible news source regarding TEO's dividend. Reuters has now adjusted this link to affirm Pagina 12's claim that TEO will not pay a dividend.
http://reut.rs/HgBoq1
At the time of this article's writing and part II's, Reuters described Pagina 12's claim as lacking sources, and unavailable for comment. Now, it seems that the source is verified.
However, shareholder's will still vote on the dividend April 27th.
Mr Phillips,
I would normally ask that you reconsider your comment and read part II http://seekingalpha.co...
But, it seems you've already found it. And while carrots are pretty good, sweet potatoes always do a better job!
Yes, I'm a Argentinian cowboy! But you definitely have me with authenticity! How long were you at UCSB?
Thanks for relaying the news. It doesn't sound great, but while TEO does pay dividends like the rest and could be influenced by the government, it isn't a bank and it doesn't harvest a natural resource. I think its best to wait and see if you're purely concerned about the dividend. TEO is down over 1% to 17.33 today, its holding.
While investing in Argentina is risky, TEO is the best of the bunch, a solid company at a cheap price.
Thanks for reading Julenzi! I believe I said Pagina 12 was a financial newspaper? Not sure about the difference though.
My spanish isn't very good. Could you elaborate please?
That's a good point Woofseek, thanks for the comment.
To answer your question, I do think similarly "talented" people are in office. How it will play out is anyone's guess.
In 2000, we were collapsing after the tech bubble burst which was just one of the many phases of economic instability in Argentina. I hope your trading indecision isn't indicative off a repeat stock price performance :).
Here's some more recent history: when Nestor Kirchner, Argentina's former president, died in 2010, TEO rose nearly +10% and was one of many ADRs to gap up immediately after his death was announced. http://reut.rs/Hdi3Zb
I'm not saying investors should be counting on death of Nestor's wife, but things have yet to play out completely.
And perhaps with the government takeover of YPF, with no dividend, the government's appetite has been satisfied.
Well FlaYankee, I think you nailed it. If you want the big gains, you have to be willing to enter when no one else is. I think its best to wait and see how the situation with YPF works out, as Repsol has threatened with a lawsuit.
However, there is a whole issue of a large natural resource, that wouldn't affect TEO. Maybe worth exploring in another article.
The news about YPF is troubling. However, I think there is a key difference: from what I've read, and what is mentioned in the article you posted, YPF hasn't met its contract obligations.
YPF and its majority shareholder, Repsolm, have argued that the price controls in Argentina have made the problem worse. The papers call this a left-of-center government, but its essentially anti free market.
Being that Argentina has the 3rd largest shale reserves (I believe), the government probably sees this as an opportunity to be more productive, which I seriously doubt.
TEO doesn't have a large natural resource to harvest. I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet.
The discussion in the comments has spurned me to delve deeper into TEO's dividend. I've just submitted a second article to SA, which I hope will bring the loose pieces closer to together along with some actionable scenarios.
Please ook, show me the convincing evidence that the TEO dividend has been cancelled, cause all I can find is a little blip on Bloomberg from a Argentine financial news outlet, who had no sources and could not be reached for comment.
http://bloom.bg/H1Odcb
And since Telecom Italia owns more than half of TEO, I'd expect they will be able to make the dividend happen, unless there is some new government regulation in Argentina to prevent it. But usually the money talks
Belingenieur,
I assume you're aware that the Bloomberg post you refer too, was from a local newspaper, that didn't cite sources, and couldn't be reached by Bloomberg. fishy
First off, TEO shareholders will vote on whether the dividend is paid.
http://bloom.bg/Ho7xPa
As for understanding the ex-dividend date, its the last day you can own a stock and still collect the dividend. The purpose of this article was to illustrate a potential actionable idea of buying TEO before its ex-dvidend date, and selling the following day. $2.21/share is the projected dividend, which could now very well be reduced.
As further news/research has come out, this trade is looking more speculative. But TEO is fairly valued, it already took a large drop of 6% on Monday, and frankly, the way the market has been performing this week, its worth consideration.
You say, "I would NOT hedge with VIX until there is a negative short-term catalyst."
On the Macro level, I'd say that a potential Greek default, the general EU financial climate, or Iran are possible negative short-term catalysts. Would you agree?
ToeKnee,
Thanks for the comment. I linked an article talking about the new smaller iPad near the heading "Build Your Own Textbook."
The point of my article was to compare Apple and Amazon's textbook markets from the student's point of view. The conclusion was that only Apple has created an infrastructure that supports new kinds of textbooks to complement new technology and our current education system.
I happen to think the Kindle is a great entertainment device for watching AMZN's content, Netflix etc. Its web browsing is not a highlight.
While Amazon may have an advantage right now (with the cheaper Kindle and a larger book selection) Apple will eventually dominate because of the possibilities iBooks Author allows.
Efrain,
Thanks for the insight. Once academics catch on to its ease of use, this market will really open. The textbook industry is around 7 billion right now, and digital textbooks barely contribute to that. The digital revolution of the textbook is just around the corner.
BEA,
Coming from someone with no name and no credentials.
You sure spend a lot of time blasting--starting to sound like one of those paid-off shorts we always hear about...
Thanks for reading.
Business Economics Analyst,
Looking through your recent comments on other articles, in addition to mine, it appears SA is no more than a place for you to vent.
You've also raided my previous, and now outdated, articles with more of your hot air.
This is a trader's stock. If you re-read the information I presented, this is a momentum trade. SPRD is looking strong heading into earnings, and with its pullback today (down about 3%), now may be the time to get in before Nov 9.
As always, articles written on SA are meant to give investors ideas and spur them to do their own due diligence.
Readytotrade-
Thanks for your interest. Here's a link to Sabrient's latest actionable options.
www.sabrient.com/indiv...
Thanks for reading and commenting.
Absolute Return Guy--I'm glad my article was able to break your silent spell.
Dark Horse Traders' Hedge--I agree, today was an example of the "cost" of a long only portfolio.
Maddog88,
What makes you think Sprint's iPhone will be scaled-back? Where did you hear that? It sounds like your assuming everything Sprint does is second rate, which I would agree with even a few years ago. But it makes no sense that they would get a product weaker in comparison to V or T
How long ago did you work for Sprint? Sprint ranks #1 in customer satisfaction, ahead of AT&T and Verizon. This company has been turned around ever since Hesse took the reins. Granted they have a lot of challenges but they've made progress.
Vertical Spread,
Thanks for your input. You're right so far about the technical damage, down again this morning, as the negative macro reports seem to keep flooding in. But its not the only one taking damage.
Months is a pretty vague. Is that your technical prediction? The markets change from week to week. "Get in Now" sounded good last week, but the market has remained unstable. Thanks for spotting my emotional excitement over CMI.
Vertical Spread:
All the way down to what? CMI still trades in the low 90's as when I recommended it.
My point was that this is a quality stock trading at a low price.This is a strong company that will pull-through in the long-term. However, the recent macro events have made the market unpredictable. I hope you did not think that I predicted this stock to take off within a week after I recommended it.
Conspiracy Theory?
Under Key Statistics at Yahoo! Finance debt/equity is 36%, but looking at the balance sheet I do see where you're getting close to 400%. finance.yahoo.com/q/ks...
Is the number you are referring to the 346 million in Other Current Liabilities? GTAT has enough cash to cover it, 362 million.
How can you say an ROE of 91% is meaningless? Obviously its not sustainable at that rate in the long run, but they are making wise investments and that strengthens their position rather than jeopardizes it.
Agreed PBV of 8 is on the high side. But it doesn't bother me for the reasons above.
thanks for the excellent comment TATyszka
timothymoher,
60% of CMI's sales are generated outside the U.S. They have a strong presence in India, China, Brazil, Mexico, U.K., and they're entering Africa. Cummins is seeing a lot sales growth in these emerging markets.
CMI is very healthy and well-balanced worldwide.
thanks for the comment beststockpicker.
I not scared by its debt. The debt/equity ratio is only 36%, which is moderate.
I will say that there are concerns that its accounting is aggressive.
It's cash is also 3 times its long-term debt, which seems fine to me.
It has beat earnings estimates solidly the last three quarters and is projected to have a great 4th quarter as well.
Thanks for the comment.
That's why they pay me the big bucks.
Nice article--way to give the hipster a debut on SA. Consumers are willing to sacrifice their future savings in order to achieve an immediately higher status because its priced just within reach.
BTW, Fixies have exploded on the UCSB campus in the past couple years--seemed like they went from hip to mainstream almost overnight.
It's definitely not an easy straddle to make. But for anyone interested in Solar, or looking for ideas, I thought it was worth considering.
Thanks for the comment Gil.