Turning A Skeptic Into A Believer: Why I Am Buying Gold [View article]
Great article Alex. Remember that currency debasement is a tool used to keep home produced goods "competitive" in the world trade market, which bodes well for gold. Also, given the unrelenting rally in equities, I would bet that some form of QE3 is already underway in one form or another.
First of all I am not a big user of the Gold/Silver ratio. All that tells you is which has been performing better relative to the other. That does not really translate into anything meaningful unless you are a spread trader (i.e. long gold / short silver or vice-versa).
The miners have their own set of issues they must deal with as companies such as revenues, expenses, margins, etc. which can cause them to diverge from the action of the physical metals. Also, many traders use the miners as leveraged bets on the future direction of the metals. The poor price action of the miners over the last few months does not bode well for the precious metal bulls over the near term.
If you already have positions in the physical metals, just hold on and you will be fine as they should continue to climb over the longer term. If you are trading at all, you can expect a period of softness over the next few weeks. If you are planning on committing new capital to this group I would not do it just yet.
Today in Commodities: Capital Deployment [View article]
Chris - you are right - I am getting too much into this disagreement. I have my way of trading and you have yours. My intention is to never degrade anyone else on these forums.
At any rate these types of back and forth serve no purpose other than to attempt make one person look better than the other.
While I may disagree with your or even Matthew's point of view my intent is to never disparage anyone. I respect Matthew for at least putting his opinion out there every day whether I agree with it or not. I will also continue to post what I see and you are free to either take it or leave it - up to you.
Today in Commodities: Capital Deployment [View article]
The IEA flip flops worse than a politician on the campaign trail. We will see how many changes they make in their next report. You base your analysis on that?
You also conveniently dismiss the number one economy on the face of the earth as an afterthought. Bias? No - not you.
Of course you made money on the markets - everyone does in hindsight. Well done. And How many articles have you published? One?
Just sit and take your shots at others and go back into the shadows. Don't come back out until it is convenient for you Chris. When you write an article you have to put something on the line. Haven't seen much of that from you. Might make you a little uncomfortable.
Just wait for Jim Rogers' next interview to give you some direction, I guess. Hopefully he will be quoted soon. The anticipation must be killing you.
Today in Commodities: Capital Deployment [View article]
Chris - Give the market more credit than that. If this 'developing world' demand was going to push prices significantly higher it would have begun doing so by now.
I think you need to take off your rose colored analysis glasses and realize that this 'growth' you see is a mirage. You can go with IEA projections and your own biases if you want to. I am taking my cues directly from the market action.
Today in Commodities: Capital Deployment [View article]
Crude oil has been tracking equities for the last two years. It has benefited from the cheap dollars looking to chase risk that are produced by the carry trade. As equities head lower and the carry trade is unwound, crude oil will continue to head lower as well.
Why else would crude have been trading so strongly on such poor fundamentals? Yes today crude moved higher when equities ultimately headed lower, but most of the selling in equities occurred after the crude oil pits closed. Also, crude oil hit its high for the day on short covering early in the session and never came close after that.
It is absolute heresy to many on Seeking Alpha to suggest that oil could move significantly lower from here. It can and it will. My target is below $60.
End of Earnings Season Again - No More Upside [View article]
Even on the recent rally off of the July low the flows toward risk were tepid. Gold's strength over the last few weeks shows that the larger players are positioning themselves more on the side of risk aversion. The market is beginning a new leg down.
Look for Bernanke to try and introduce another gimmick to support the market as the Dow breaks 10,000. He is running out of bullets, however.
Great article Michael. One simply has to watch the financials for clues as to the direction of the economy. The major players have had unfettered access to taxpayer dollars yet they still struggle. Things are much worse than we have been told by the administration and the press. The data is now catching up as the 'stimulus' effect fades.
If you wish to label me as defensive for questioning those that enter the discussion or just lob negative comments, then so be it.
No where in my article did I mention backtesting. This is current analysis based on the high degree of correlation between markets.
Trying to base your outlook for the future price of crude oil on the outbreak of regional or world conflict does not put your analysis on a very sound base.
Mr. Respondent - You live in the antiseptic world of theories and academics which is great in the classroom but does not serve one well when trading the markets. I guess when you see the high correlation between equities and crude oil over the last two years you can't refute it, so just quote some nameless European 'mathematical economist' in an attempt to debunk it. Well done Mr. Respondent.
OPEC had better start buying S&P futures if they want crude oil to move higher from here.
So let me see if I follow your logic Mr. Banks - The charts above prove that the risk trade is causing the price of crude oil to move in a very high correlation with equities and copper for the last two years- that must mean that OPEC controls the U.S. stock market as well as copper? I never would have guessed.........
Turning A Skeptic Into A Believer: Why I Am Buying Gold [View article]
Gold Miners in GDX: Caution Ahead [View article]
First of all I am not a big user of the Gold/Silver ratio. All that tells you is which has been performing better relative to the other. That does not really translate into anything meaningful unless you are a spread trader (i.e. long gold / short silver or vice-versa).
The miners have their own set of issues they must deal with as companies such as revenues, expenses, margins, etc. which can cause them to diverge from the action of the physical metals. Also, many traders use the miners as leveraged bets on the future direction of the metals. The poor price action of the miners over the last few months does not bode well for the precious metal bulls over the near term.
If you already have positions in the physical metals, just hold on and you will be fine as they should continue to climb over the longer term. If you are trading at all, you can expect a period of softness over the next few weeks. If you are planning on committing new capital to this group I would not do it just yet.
Gold Miners in GDX: Caution Ahead [View article]
Today in Commodities: Capital Deployment [View article]
At any rate these types of back and forth serve no purpose other than to attempt make one person look better than the other.
While I may disagree with your or even Matthew's point of view my intent is to never disparage anyone. I respect Matthew for at least putting his opinion out there every day whether I agree with it or not. I will also continue to post what I see and you are free to either take it or leave it - up to you.
Best of luck to you Chris and I apologize.
Today in Commodities: Capital Deployment [View article]
You also conveniently dismiss the number one economy on the face of the earth as an afterthought. Bias? No - not you.
Of course you made money on the markets - everyone does in hindsight. Well done. And How many articles have you published? One?
Just sit and take your shots at others and go back into the shadows. Don't come back out until it is convenient for you Chris. When you write an article you have to put something on the line. Haven't seen much of that from you. Might make you a little uncomfortable.
Just wait for Jim Rogers' next interview to give you some direction, I guess. Hopefully he will be quoted soon. The anticipation must be killing you.
Today in Commodities: Capital Deployment [View article]
I think you need to take off your rose colored analysis glasses and realize that this 'growth' you see is a mirage. You can go with IEA projections and your own biases if you want to. I am taking my cues directly from the market action.
Today in Commodities: Capital Deployment [View article]
Why else would crude have been trading so strongly on such poor fundamentals? Yes today crude moved higher when equities ultimately headed lower, but most of the selling in equities occurred after the crude oil pits closed. Also, crude oil hit its high for the day on short covering early in the session and never came close after that.
It is absolute heresy to many on Seeking Alpha to suggest that oil could move significantly lower from here. It can and it will. My target is below $60.
End of Earnings Season Again - No More Upside [View article]
Look for Bernanke to try and introduce another gimmick to support the market as the Dow breaks 10,000. He is running out of bullets, however.
Jobless Claims Are No Surprise [View article]
Could Gold Miners Be Ready to Shine? [View article]
Crude Oil Shows Weakness: Expecting Below $60 Dip [View article]
No where in my article did I mention backtesting. This is current analysis based on the high degree of correlation between markets.
Trying to base your outlook for the future price of crude oil on the outbreak of regional or world conflict does not put your analysis on a very sound base.
Packing Away the Bull Suit [View article]
Crude Oil Shows Weakness: Expecting Below $60 Dip [View article]
OPEC had better start buying S&P futures if they want crude oil to move higher from here.
Crude Oil Shows Weakness: Expecting Below $60 Dip [View article]
Crude Oil Shows Weakness: Expecting Below $60 Dip [View article]