Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Welt  

View Welt's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Market Overreaction An Early Holiday Gift, MusclePharm Trading At Less Than Half Of Intrinsic Value [View article]
    That is what I think is happening. The sellers dumped in December.
    Jan 2, 2015. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty surges as activist discloses stake [View news story]
    This is great news for ARCP shareholders.
    Dec 29, 2014. 07:21 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty -7% as accounting fallout continues [View news story]
    It seriously looks like the bottom may already be in.
    Dec 24, 2014. 01:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons I'm Adding Gilead To My Healthcare Holdings [View article]
    I am simply adding up each quarter's cash flow per share provided by E*TRADE for the next four quarters. I then divided the current share price by the combined forward cash flows per share and I showed the math. I'm not debating whether this is the best method or not, just putting an alternate simple view out there. An even better option would be just to use operating cash flow per share, but since it is Christmas eve I don't plan on looking at too many 10Qs today.

    In talking about cash flows E*TRADE says..."Analysts and investors rely upon a firm's cash flow per share rather than earnings per share to be a leading indicator of a company's well-being. Earnings per share are often seen as an unreliable measure because they can be manipulated quite easily. However, cash is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to distort. As a result, measuring a firm's strength and sustainability is done most accurately with the use of cash flow per share."
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty -7% as accounting fallout continues [View news story]
    No it isn't to strengthen the balance sheet. However, the balance sheet will no doubt strengthen while the dividend is suspended.
    Dec 24, 2014. 10:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons I'm Adding Gilead To My Healthcare Holdings [View article]
    You are correct in that investors should focus on cash flows instead of earnings. However, I disagree with your cash flow analysis. Cash is king in the investing world, but the media/pundits/most analysts talk about earnings which messes with investors heads.

    - MRK's expectation is 3.41 in cash flow per share in the next four quarters
    - GILD's expectation is 10.34

    -The forward cash flow multiple on MRK is 16.7 (57.5/3.41)
    -The forward cash multiple on GILD is 8.92 (92.20/10.34)

    This tells me GILD is massively undervalued compared to MRK. Even if you cut cash flow estimates for GILD it still is much cheaper than MRK on a cash flow basis.
    Dec 24, 2014. 10:21 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty -7% as accounting fallout continues [View news story]
    ARCP looks like it might close green today. Is a bottom starting to form? I say possibly.
    Dec 24, 2014. 09:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Expect The Biotech Sell-Off To Continue Into 2015 [View article]
    I disagree with you that there will continue to be a biotech selloff in 2015. However, I do agree with your sector rotation paragraph in that there will likely be some rotation out of biotech into more economically sensitive stocks. I still believe the rotation won't be large enough to cause too much pain to biotech investors though. I can see it causing some interim consolidation, but not a selloff. Biotech still has better growth than almost anything out there...

    If there is some type of selloff I would agree that it will be a buying opportunity. I bought GILD this week averaged in at 92.
    Dec 24, 2014. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is The Devil? Will Gilead Fall Or Soar In 2015? [View article]
    No they do not which absolutely blows my mind. Maybe there is a better way of doing things, but forcing drug companies to drop the costs of their drugs is not it. Competition and capitalism do well enough without massive intervention. Hence why GILD is down today....COMPETITION!
    Dec 23, 2014. 01:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is The Devil? Will Gilead Fall Or Soar In 2015? [View article]
    You're right. Their profit levels are too high. Let's force them to charge less so they have no incentive to produce life altering or even life saving drugs. This will at least keep our healthcare costs down. Who cares if all the drug companies/execs/employees decide the industry is no longer profitable so they go elsewhere and no more drugs are ever produced.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:57 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm Corp.: An Undiscovered Growth Story With Over 80% Upside [View article]
    Very nice thank you. I do now remember hearing that over the CC.
    Dec 16, 2014. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm Corp.: An Undiscovered Growth Story With Over 80% Upside [View article]
    So there is supposed to be a 2015 guidance call this month? (Dec, 2014)
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm Corp.: An Undiscovered Growth Story With Over 80% Upside [View article]
    Thank you for your quick and valuable responses. I very much so look forward to your next article.

    I think I am going to start picking up meditating to offset the stress of trying to find value in on the OTC markets.

    Welt
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm Corp.: An Undiscovered Growth Story With Over 80% Upside [View article]
    I do have high conviction which is why I do not plan on selling shares unless the story changes. I guess I would need ultra-high conviction in order to buy more at these levels, but I cannot get myself to do that at this point. Need to at least see some stability.

    I agree it is nice to see insiders continue to buy shares. However, they need to really get their act together to run a cash flow positive business. Cash flow is what matters. Not earnings.

    I have heard that quote many times before. I have also heard it's a bad idea to try and catch a falling knife. Could you comment on what the difference is in being greedy as others are fearful and catching a falling knife. One has a positive connotation while the other negative.
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MusclePharm Corp.: An Undiscovered Growth Story With Over 80% Upside [View article]
    This sell-off is insane. Beyond brutal. Now at 8.80. Down from 14.20 just months ago. That's almost 40%! It literally goes down everyday.

    Management really needs to find a way to get on the NASDAQ. The lack of volume gives anybody with a couple thousand dollars an opportunity to move the price materially which should not be the case. What is the holdup on the SEC investigation?

    MSLP is now trading at less than 0.6 times 2015 sales. I think it is super cheap, but the lack of price stability makes me question even holding 1 share let a lone buying more.
    Dec 15, 2014. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
191 Comments
186 Likes