Welt

Long/short equity, portfolio strategy, momentum trading, future cpa
Welt
Long/short equity, portfolio strategy, momentum trading, future CPA
Contributor since: 2014
So RSP is no longer going to be a pure S&P 500 equal weight index ETF? If my assumption is correct, then I feel like this is a terrible idea. Why not just discontinue the other ETF and continue on with RSP? Aren't there going to be a lot of mangers who dump RSP bc it will no longer have the same standards for its holding that it had when they initially purchased it?
Why don't you panic a little more?
Probably a good buying opportunity if you are patient. Invest at your own risk.
Is there a general consensus that they can continue to show a competitive advantage over peers? Pricing power can drive this higher if sustained.
aaronyoung,
Please. Just give up on them. I did a long time ago and I don't regret it.
This WILL be a penny stock.
*no position
Great list. I've been helping my mom get into the market a little bit over the past two years. JNJ and WMT are two from this list I have been considering getting her into in the near term so this list is comforting. So far she's happy with my recommendations since I originally got her into GILD and DIA (only GILD now). I'd like to keep her in individual stocks rather than ETFs so she can understand better what she owns and also be able to hopefully be proud of the companies she's invested in. Long-term planning for a mini-DGI portfolio for her with 5-10 stocks.
I don't expect a lot of upside until revenue and AFFO bottom out and a there is clarity in terms of future growth. From what I understand, revenue should be dropping for at least another year or two. With that said, I will continue to DRIP at this time and enjoy the P/AFFO expansion in the years to come. A lot of people got burned with this company, but time will allow a new group of investors to buy into VER and the "butthurt" people will certainly grow quieter and quieter as they move on.
Oil is inching up towards 42 as we speak. I expect a breakout soon as long as 40 holds and wouldn't want to be short anymore especially if we get above 43.
I am long NOV with an average around $49 and will continue to accumulate under $50. (NOV 52 wk range = roughly $39-87)
Yes, and I am honestly getting sick of hearing how Berkshire sold their NOV shares. Nobody, not even Buffet, has a crystal ball over there at Berkshire.
From my understanding, Berkshire has a poor record when it comes to investments in energy companies. Seems to me like Berkshire is selling their energy holdings towards the low end of the cycle. Doesn't seem smart to me.
Been buying NOV. High quality company operating in a tough environment average is in the high 40s. Reinvesting dividends and waiting patiently. Might even buy more.
You can't just take a tax loss and buy the stock back. Look up tax wash sale rules
Thanks for the update and reinforcement. I read through the transcript last night and came up with the same conclusion that you did in relation to the extended RINTEGA timeline being the cause for today's selloff. I currently have no position, but I am certainly interested as I have owned CLDX a couple of different times since 2013. I'd like to see the stock settle a bit before possibly buying though.
For those of you that don't follow technical analysis CLDX has 3 different support levels to watch --- $16, 15 and 12.50 --- If it fills the Nov 2014 gap at $15 and bounces hard then buying in the mid/upper 15s might work out well. With that said, fundamentals always trump technicals in the long-run.
Wish they would be more transparent on revenue guidance so I can figure out if I should buy in or not.
I've read the COIN ETF will likely come after the Winklevoss Brothers' exchange Gemini opens which is currently awaiting NY approval for a BitLicense from what I understand. However, Gemini might open in a month and the ETF still might not come for another year who knows.
Anybody on here buying any coins at this time? I've been a accumulating some at this sub-300 price.
Looks like I'm going to have to do some research on this one. Wonder why it's selling off? No position
You need to actually read before posting.
Here are some ways to lose bitcoins---http://bit.ly/1MCsh8M
It's misleading to say their cash and cash equivalents fell 1B in the quarter without disclosing the reason behind was largely due to timely stock repurchases. It makes it sound like their operating business is burning through cash at an alarming rate which it isn't.
I agree, but I still think a lot of people like to see DOW change in points.
Good point metameta. With that said, if they end up having zero taxable income for their 2015 fiscal year they might not even start paying a dividend until 2016.
Your downside is 100% no matter how low the stock price is.
Just because a stock is lower than it has been does not mean there isn't much downside.
A stocks trading price honestly does not mean anything. It only means something when you factor in the number of shares outstanding.
With that said, I'm on your side that in that I like the risk/reward here, but me and everyone else thought it was cheap at 10 and 9 and now it looks like 8 is in the cards.
If I buy more, it won't be for a while. (except for divy reinvestment)
I plan on sticking with ARCP until it begins to trade more in line with peers in terms of a multiple to FFO. Until then I plan on reinvesting the dividends in my Roth to maximize the reward on the way up. Of course, no divy at the moment and no guarantee it will ever trade at a comparable valuation to peers. As long as I still believe it is possible for ARCP to be mention next to O I will hold. It might take ten or more years, but I'm only 23 I can afford to wait.
That's true. NOV certainly isn't one of those set it and forget it companies because they operate in a tough environment even in the best of times. However, the shale revolution is in the early innings in my opinion which gives me confidence in NOV. Sure the economy can tank and oil could drop further, so far GDP has continued to grind higher and fuel demand is very strong. Both of those things can continue as long as the FED doesn't blow the whole thing up by tightening too fast. Considering how cautious the FED is I don't see them being too aggressive and I could even see them back off immediately if GDP starts looking like it might reverse.
Of course I hate how active the FED is and wish we could let a little more pure capitalism show us the way, but we have to deal with the hand we are dealt.
That's the thing though. If you try and value a business based off of earnings near a cyclical bottom then it likely won't be trading at a historic multiple. It will trade a premium multiple compared to say a 5 year average because there will be expectations of earnings growth coming out of the cyclical bottom that will be priced into the shares.
In NOV's case, if it is more likely than not that earnings are going to bottom in 2016 and grow from there the price will follow much sooner than the earnings will. This might result in NOV trading at a 20+ P/E for a short period only to grow into a more historical 14x multiple by the time earnings make a reasonable recovery.
I'm not saying that NOV has massive upside right now because I don't really think they do, but I also don't think $34 (a previous article) is reasonable either.
Maybe we get low $40s, but we might also get high $50s. It all depends on how quickly they can turn the ship around and get investors excited again about the future.
I'm not smart enough to tell you if that will change, but I can tell you what analysts see for the future.
Actual 2015 Rev = $.6m
Estimated 2016 Rev = $3.1m
Estimated 2017 Rev = $12.5m
Estimated 2018 Rec = $33.7m
Looks like massive revenue growth in is store for Organovo. At 92m shares with a $4.40 share price you get a market cap in excess of 400m. Basically we are trading at about 12x revs 3 years out not factoring in additional dilution beyond today's announcement. Industry average for bio is 12x current year's revs so obviously ONVO is expensive. However, ONVO can grow into it's valuation a lot easier than a 100B market cap bio.
If ONVO can reach 100m+ revenue and trade at a 15x rev multiple due to the potential of growing revs off of a low base then that would imply a 1.5B market cap. Before factoring in dilution that would imply a $16 share price or factoring in potential future dilution it would still likely be $10+. A company like ISIS trades somewhere around 30x revs and we all know how bios can overshoot reasonable valuations so you could possibly be looking at crazy prices in excess of 20-30 bucks. Who knows, but it's possible this decade especially if there is some buyout chatter.
If you are short you might be able to squeeze out some more gains, but if analysts are correct in their revenue predictions then the trend will eventually change and I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side.
Disclosure: No position and have never owned shares in the company, but have interest in possibly purchasing shares. Wish it was cheaper.
"Too little, Too late?"
You act like Q2 is make or break for the company when everybody and their mother already knows it will be UGLY. What matters a lot more than Q2 will be guidance as well as commentary on the call when we will finally see the cyclical bottom in the business.
Discounted cash flows factor in a lot more than 1 quarter or even 1 year. The market is all about the future. How many times have you seen a company blow past earnings, but then give soft guidance and the stock gets crushed?
In my opinion, the risk is to the upside in NOV. No reason to short and hope for one more leg lower when it has already fallen about 45%. The only viable reason to short from my point of view is if you believe NOV's business will erode for years to come with no reasonable expectation of a recovery.
I don't understand why people are constantly surprised by equity offerings to raise cash with these little bios. When a company says they have 1 year of cash reserves it does not mean they plan on waiting for an entire year before raising cash. Management will always raise cash well before they start to run low on cash because that's just plain common sense. Last thing they want to do is start running low on cash and are forced to do an equity offering under duress.
Bottom line is that if you are mad that a little bio is selling stock to raise cash then you have no business investing in them. You should understand your risk and that your shares will likely be diluted substantially until there is sufficient cash flow.
I am interested in the warrants, but would like to propose 2 scenarios to see whether I am understanding things right.
Scenario 1:
- Buy 100 warrants at $3 for a total of $300 right now
- KMI rises to $50 by Dec 2016 or anytime between now and 5/25/17
- I could either sell the warrants for roughly $10 each and make $700 (1,000-300)
Or I could exercise the warrants and get KMI stock for $10 off ($40) and have a unrealized gain of $700 (basis in KMI stock would be $43 with it trading at $50)
Scenario 2:
Buy 100 warrants at $3 for a total of $300 right now
KMI fails to rise above $40 by 5/25/17
I hold them until the very end, they expire worthless, I realize a $300 loss
Is that how it works? Each warrant represents 1 share of KMI and I can exercise the warrants at any time while they still trade?
So basically a boiled down comment would be that the investors who currently don't own BAX, but want to be a part of the spinoff should buy some next week or wait until the split settles and buy one or both.
The current wells being pumped right now are producing less and less oil everyday (albeit I don't know how quickly) and no new wells are being drilled. How can that not be bullish for oil in the short term? All that's telling me is that what they are drilling right now will produce less oil tomorrow and less the next day........
I don't know how long it will take for production numbers to finally reflect the drop in rig count, but I suspect it won't be much longer. When that happens oil will rise then we will see when producers will start pumping new wells. Then and only then will we get a clearer picture of oil prices in my opinion.