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  • Major stock futures, euro tumble in reaction to Greece news [View news story]
    I agree, but I still think a lot of people like to see DOW change in points.
    Jun 28, 2015. 07:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Slow And Steady Is Going To Be The New Tactic [View article]
    Good point metameta. With that said, if they end up having zero taxable income for their 2015 fiscal year they might not even start paying a dividend until 2016.
    Jun 24, 2015. 08:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Slow And Steady Is Going To Be The New Tactic [View article]
    Your downside is 100% no matter how low the stock price is.

    Just because a stock is lower than it has been does not mean there isn't much downside.

    A stocks trading price honestly does not mean anything. It only means something when you factor in the number of shares outstanding.

    With that said, I'm on your side that in that I like the risk/reward here, but me and everyone else thought it was cheap at 10 and 9 and now it looks like 8 is in the cards.

    If I buy more, it won't be for a while. (except for divy reinvestment)
    Jun 24, 2015. 08:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Slow And Steady Is Going To Be The New Tactic [View article]
    I plan on sticking with ARCP until it begins to trade more in line with peers in terms of a multiple to FFO. Until then I plan on reinvesting the dividends in my Roth to maximize the reward on the way up. Of course, no divy at the moment and no guarantee it will ever trade at a comparable valuation to peers. As long as I still believe it is possible for ARCP to be mention next to O I will hold. It might take ten or more years, but I'm only 23 I can afford to wait.
    Jun 24, 2015. 07:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco Cuts 1,500 Jobs - Too Little, Too Late? [View article]
    That's true. NOV certainly isn't one of those set it and forget it companies because they operate in a tough environment even in the best of times. However, the shale revolution is in the early innings in my opinion which gives me confidence in NOV. Sure the economy can tank and oil could drop further, so far GDP has continued to grind higher and fuel demand is very strong. Both of those things can continue as long as the FED doesn't blow the whole thing up by tightening too fast. Considering how cautious the FED is I don't see them being too aggressive and I could even see them back off immediately if GDP starts looking like it might reverse.

    Of course I hate how active the FED is and wish we could let a little more pure capitalism show us the way, but we have to deal with the hand we are dealt.
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco Cuts 1,500 Jobs - Too Little, Too Late? [View article]
    That's the thing though. If you try and value a business based off of earnings near a cyclical bottom then it likely won't be trading at a historic multiple. It will trade a premium multiple compared to say a 5 year average because there will be expectations of earnings growth coming out of the cyclical bottom that will be priced into the shares.

    In NOV's case, if it is more likely than not that earnings are going to bottom in 2016 and grow from there the price will follow much sooner than the earnings will. This might result in NOV trading at a 20+ P/E for a short period only to grow into a more historical 14x multiple by the time earnings make a reasonable recovery.

    I'm not saying that NOV has massive upside right now because I don't really think they do, but I also don't think $34 (a previous article) is reasonable either.

    Maybe we get low $40s, but we might also get high $50s. It all depends on how quickly they can turn the ship around and get investors excited again about the future.
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo initiates equity offering; shares off 9% premarket [View news story]
    I'm not smart enough to tell you if that will change, but I can tell you what analysts see for the future.

    Actual 2015 Rev = $.6m
    Estimated 2016 Rev = $3.1m
    Estimated 2017 Rev = $12.5m
    Estimated 2018 Rec = $33.7m

    Looks like massive revenue growth in is store for Organovo. At 92m shares with a $4.40 share price you get a market cap in excess of 400m. Basically we are trading at about 12x revs 3 years out not factoring in additional dilution beyond today's announcement. Industry average for bio is 12x current year's revs so obviously ONVO is expensive. However, ONVO can grow into it's valuation a lot easier than a 100B market cap bio.

    If ONVO can reach 100m+ revenue and trade at a 15x rev multiple due to the potential of growing revs off of a low base then that would imply a 1.5B market cap. Before factoring in dilution that would imply a $16 share price or factoring in potential future dilution it would still likely be $10+. A company like ISIS trades somewhere around 30x revs and we all know how bios can overshoot reasonable valuations so you could possibly be looking at crazy prices in excess of 20-30 bucks. Who knows, but it's possible this decade especially if there is some buyout chatter.

    If you are short you might be able to squeeze out some more gains, but if analysts are correct in their revenue predictions then the trend will eventually change and I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side.

    Disclosure: No position and have never owned shares in the company, but have interest in possibly purchasing shares. Wish it was cheaper.
    Jun 18, 2015. 09:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco Cuts 1,500 Jobs - Too Little, Too Late? [View article]
    "Too little, Too late?"

    You act like Q2 is make or break for the company when everybody and their mother already knows it will be UGLY. What matters a lot more than Q2 will be guidance as well as commentary on the call when we will finally see the cyclical bottom in the business.

    Discounted cash flows factor in a lot more than 1 quarter or even 1 year. The market is all about the future. How many times have you seen a company blow past earnings, but then give soft guidance and the stock gets crushed?

    In my opinion, the risk is to the upside in NOV. No reason to short and hope for one more leg lower when it has already fallen about 45%. The only viable reason to short from my point of view is if you believe NOV's business will erode for years to come with no reasonable expectation of a recovery.
    Jun 18, 2015. 08:49 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organovo initiates equity offering; shares off 9% premarket [View news story]
    I don't understand why people are constantly surprised by equity offerings to raise cash with these little bios. When a company says they have 1 year of cash reserves it does not mean they plan on waiting for an entire year before raising cash. Management will always raise cash well before they start to run low on cash because that's just plain common sense. Last thing they want to do is start running low on cash and are forced to do an equity offering under duress.

    Bottom line is that if you are mad that a little bio is selling stock to raise cash then you have no business investing in them. You should understand your risk and that your shares will likely be diluted substantially until there is sufficient cash flow.
    Jun 18, 2015. 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Is Getting Hit By The Bears Again [View article]
    I am interested in the warrants, but would like to propose 2 scenarios to see whether I am understanding things right.

    Scenario 1:
    - Buy 100 warrants at $3 for a total of $300 right now
    - KMI rises to $50 by Dec 2016 or anytime between now and 5/25/17
    - I could either sell the warrants for roughly $10 each and make $700 (1,000-300)
    Or I could exercise the warrants and get KMI stock for $10 off ($40) and have a unrealized gain of $700 (basis in KMI stock would be $43 with it trading at $50)

    Scenario 2:
    Buy 100 warrants at $3 for a total of $300 right now
    KMI fails to rise above $40 by 5/25/17
    I hold them until the very end, they expire worthless, I realize a $300 loss

    Is that how it works? Each warrant represents 1 share of KMI and I can exercise the warrants at any time while they still trade?
    Jun 13, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baxter moves ahead on Baxalta spin-off; share dividend declared [View news story]
    So basically a boiled down comment would be that the investors who currently don't own BAX, but want to be a part of the spinoff should buy some next week or wait until the split settles and buy one or both.
    Jun 5, 2015. 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. oil rig count posts another modest drop [View news story]
    The current wells being pumped right now are producing less and less oil everyday (albeit I don't know how quickly) and no new wells are being drilled. How can that not be bullish for oil in the short term? All that's telling me is that what they are drilling right now will produce less oil tomorrow and less the next day........

    I don't know how long it will take for production numbers to finally reflect the drop in rig count, but I suspect it won't be much longer. When that happens oil will rise then we will see when producers will start pumping new wells. Then and only then will we get a clearer picture of oil prices in my opinion.
    Jun 5, 2015. 02:52 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs up 280K in May; UE rate ticks higher [View news story]
    I usually don't pay much attention to the opinions of just some guy.
    Jun 5, 2015. 12:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs up 280K in May; UE rate ticks higher [View news story]
    Better to be self-employed and entrepreneurial than be part of the millions who have given up looking for work. The more entrepreneurs we the have the better our country will be. Maybe one of those 516,000 will build the next great fortune 500 company.

    more entrepreneurs = more American's trying to make a better life for themselves and their families
    Jun 5, 2015. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs up 280K in May; UE rate ticks higher [View news story]
    Better to be self-employed and entrepreneurial than be part of the millions who have given up looking for work. The more entrepreneurs we the have the better our country will be. Maybe one of those 516,000 will build the next great fortune 500 company.

    more entrepreneurs = more American's with determination to succeed
    Jun 5, 2015. 09:29 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
213 Comments
240 Likes