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  • Here's What Happens When You Only Read The Headline [View article]
    I understand that it is a brief article but your estimation of cost is far too simplistic as corn is not the only input. Also, correct me if I am wrong, but your 2x EBITDA appears to be based on annualizing this past quarters numbers which is completely unrealistic. With that said, I agree with your general thesis, but in order to be "safely" invested here you need to watch all of the moving parts (corn, basis differentials, ethanol, EPA etc.) like a hawk.
    May 28, 2014. 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Invest In A Deep Value Investment Opportunity In 3 Easy Steps: Load Caza Oil & Gas, Sit, And Wait [View article]
    This is traded in London and Toronto on major exchanges. How about this for a rule: don't comment on something you know nothing about.
    May 26, 2014. 06:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power announces stock offering, -6.7% AH [View news story]
    They may as well keep issuing shares while they can at this price. I had an inexperienced friend tell me about how great this company and its technology were and how fuel cells would take off this year so I took a look in December as a favour. It took about 15 minutes to realize that they would need to raise capital within weeks, the technology is nothing special and management always overpromises and underperforms. Not sure how someone could justify investing their money in this dilution machine.
    Apr 22, 2014. 04:46 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Green Rush (Tweed) [View instapost]
    Just a note on the assets, I'm not sure if your numbers included the Dec 27 PP but I doubt it so they have raised an additional ~$12 million that would not be included (this includes the Jan 30, Feb 5 and March 7 PP's as well). As such, they should be cashed up for the foreseeable future and sales are expected to start imminently (mid-April). It is a joke that companies like FITX (nothing against it in particular just the first one that came to mind) with no license and no facility are being given a significantly higher valuation than Tweed so I expect a serious revaluation to the downside for those names and to the upside for Tweed. I have looked at numerous marijuana stocks and am yet to find a single other one that has a clearly achievable path to a level of profitability that would warrant the lofty valuations in the industry. Tweed not only has this but also has the potential to go well beyond it. Also, as you stated, they have a legitimate management team, not a bunch of failed mining execs or long time penny stock P&D guys. Chuck Rifici (President & CEO) was even the CFO of the Liberal Party of Canada which could be beneficial if Trudeau manages to get elected. My opinion - if you need to invest in weed make it Tweed. Good luck.
    Apr 11, 2014. 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Demand Uncertain: Is Cameco Corp. The Right Long-Term Play? [View article]
    Michael, you begin by questioning the uranium bull thesis and then conclude by saying that Paladin, which is little more than an extremely leveraged bet on spot/term prices, is the best bet. This seems like quite the contradiction to me. Cameco is the lowest cost major producer with a clear outlook of low cost production growth; they will survive and even make money in the current low price environment. Paladin, on the other hand, won't last long if the situation doesn't change soon, although if it does obviously you stand to make far more money but at the risk of being wiped out completely. There are far more attractive options like FCU who's PLS project now seems almost certain to have 150 million lbs of high grade uranium at a depth that could be mined with a pit. It will be bought, likely at multiples of the current price, as this project will be economic regardless of the uranium price. To each his own I guess, but I certainly don't understand your seemingly contradictory argument. Care to explain? Good luck.
    Mar 29, 2014. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nikkei: iPhone 6 component output ramping; two models likely [View news story]
    I have a GS3 and had a GS2 LTE before it (dropped it in the ocean before I had time to realize how crappy it was) and I have to agree. I will be getting an iPhone 6 if I can manage to wait that long. On the S3 the battery life is like 6 hours with moderate use, apps crash constantly, tons of other weird bugs, connectivity issues... the list goes on but just an all around awful experience. It almost makes me miss my BB.
    Mar 28, 2014. 04:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Demand Uncertain: Is Cameco Corp. The Right Long-Term Play? [View article]
    John, do you really think that a brief article by someone with no following and only a shallow understanding of the industry could have an impact on uranium stock prices? Give me a break.

    I am bullish long term on uranium miners but the recent run up was too much, too fast. I sold off my DNN and half of my CCJ positions but will add back the CCJ for the long term.

    Chris, you really need to look deeper at the Japanese situation, nuclear build out, and the marginal cost of production of the miners. There is also more to the ending HEU agreement than what you have mentioned so I would recommend exploring this further. In my experience it tends to be a good time to go long a commodity when the spot falls significantly below the average marginal cost of production (although term prices are far more important than the spot for this industry). There is a long term supply deficit developing but this likely won't be felt until ~2017-2018. Also, short term sentiment is likely to dictate stock prices and with the Japanese most likely restarting reactors by mid summer we could easily see another significant jump. It seems as though you have barely even kept up with the headlines, let alone the knowledge necessary to be providing people investment advice. Long CCJ, FCUUF.
    Mar 27, 2014. 03:50 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petition calling for the FDA to accelerate review of eteplirsen may fall short [View news story]
    Not sure that this is a newsworthy item. Either way you could have at least included a link to the petition if this was really necessary.
    Mar 19, 2014. 12:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Leaked docs point to cheaper iPhone 5C [View news story]
    Ever since the 5C was announced my opinion has been that it was designed for the long term (in terms of smartphones at least) with the idea being that it would creep towards the low-mid end price point over the next year or two and wind up being very competitive in emerging markets pricewise (as well as quality and functionality wise) allowing Apple to expand its user base profitably without cannibalizing too much of its high margin high-end smartphone business. I like this strategy as I believe that the key to Apple's long term sustainability will be expanding their software ecosystem's user base in the next few years. At the same time I don't want to see them give up too much ground on margins in the short term and I think that the 5C will help to achieve this.
    Mar 17, 2014. 04:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy: Successful Shale Oil Test Underscores Compelling Value Proposition [View article]
    Malcolm, thank you once again for another great article. I own this one too and added more immediately at the open Thursday morning as I was impressed by the MA-1 result. I too was a bit surprised at the muted response but it does seem like there are frequently exploitable inefficiencies in pricing these jrs as you said above. Anyways, your opinion is a big vote of confidence in my books so I'm happy to know you're on board!
    Mar 8, 2014. 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Rio Tinto considering making a bid for Turquoise Hill [View news story]
    I am long TRQ stock and LEAPS from just after the rights offering and this does not come as a surprise. The rumor mill has been churning these past few days and the bullish trading and call volume has been suspicious. I think this report likely has merit. Regardless, however, I think that at the current price it still represents a highly skewed risk-reward profile for new investors. Recent developments seem to be suggesting that a deal with the government is approaching and a bid from Rio (albeit a lowball one) would only be icing on the cake.
    Mar 6, 2014. 08:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fission Uranium - Still Undervalued With 50%-125% Upside [View article]
    For anyone interested FCU was mentioned in a Bloomberg article this morning. Of note "Randhawa said Fission has signed non-disclosure agreements with three potential buyers, including one in China."
    Feb 21, 2014. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fission Uranium - Still Undervalued With 50%-125% Upside [View article]
    Thanks Christopher. The past transactions were also in the developmental stage. At this point there are too many variables for me to put an accurate quantitative cost on it but every indicator points to it being one of the, if not the, lowest cost projects in the world. Take a look at Hathor's preliminary economic analysis, I believe the estimated costs were ~$15/lb. If it is possible to mine it as a pit PLS would likely be significantly lower. Yesterday's assay for PLS14-129 was nothing less than spectacular and along with the Nexgen discovery next door (7km east along the same conductor) it is looking more and more like PLS has multi-hundred million pound potential. I have also seen compelling arguments for a takeover valuation well above what I have used (as high as $15 per pound) based on it being open pittable.
    Feb 20, 2014. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fission Uranium - Still Undervalued With 50%-125% Upside [View article]
    Thanks for the compliments Daniel. I threw this together hoping to see some dissenting opinions so I appreciate the feedback. Even though I am bullish very long term on the uranium industry I agree that some of the recent enthusiasm is overdone. There is still way too much uncertainty the next couple years. With that said, I picked up CCJ during the annual fall sell-off and plan to hold long term. I listened to the conference call as well and thought that there was nothing too unexpected. Gitzel did dampen my hopes a bit of a takeover (of FCU) happening sooner than later though. As recently as a couple months ago I had him as saying they were actively looking for acquisitions which is a far cry from the impression he gave during the call.

    I hope that I was clear enough that this is still very speculative and in the early stages. Hathor had drilled approximately 700 holes and had an NI 43-101 compliant resource of 58 million pounds divided between two zones at the time of the takeover. If Fission goes with a summer program similar to this winter they would be somewhere around 330 holes drilled. With that said, FCU's results have been far superior to Hathor's at this stage and there is a lot of drilling left to do so it is impossible to say what sort of resource they will come up with. I do think, however, that you are underestimating the value of the characteristics of this deposit. If it is open-pittable and continues to grow PLS will be in a class of its own in terms of undeveloped deposits. There is literally no other large, high-grade and shallow deposit left unmined in the world and the economics of the project should prove very attractive. You could make the argument that it is fairly valued based on what they have discovered to date with expectations for a bit more drilling success, but in my opinion this ignores the massive growth potential as areas between zones are filled in as well as the exploration upside on the rest of the property.
    Feb 14, 2014. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fission Uranium - Still Undervalued With 50%-125% Upside [View article]
    NexGen looks as good as most of the area plays to me but that doesn't change the fact that it is basically still just a neighbouring piece of property (and I think another one near Roughrider as well if I remember correctly?). I'm not sure how that is comparable to the best discovery since Roughrider, and probably well before it.

    Thanks for the comment, good luck.
    Feb 14, 2014. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment