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  • Fortress Investment Group - Up On The Ramparts [View article]
    08-Apr-14: I’ve nw increased my Fortress Investment Group $FIG portfolio holding frm 5.0% to 5.9%
    Apr 9 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Investment Group - Up On The Ramparts [View article]
    That's $FIG for you - always two steps forward, one step the price action is not that surprising. Also, I guess some investors are reacting to the insider sale of stock - over-reacting I should say, it's quite understandable & no big deal in my opinion. Clearly, the management team remains very motivated to keep growing the business.

    Intrinsic value continues to grow steadily with each & every quarter, and the most recent buyback was another super deal - I still like the stock as much as ever.
    Mar 30 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Investment Group - Up On The Ramparts [View article]
    Hey, what did I tell you! A beautiful year-end reward for $FIG shareholders:

    And what a buyback price..?!
    Feb 13 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Investment Group - Up On The Ramparts [View article]

    earljr1 - All asset managers are ultimately a 'leveraged' play on the market, so any decline's likely to hit them harder. But I shd clarify: I don't think a 10% correction is that meaningful for $FIG, as its AUM performance isn't necessarily directly/immediately correlated with public market performance. Plus most of their AUM's in permanent or locked-up vehicles, so they face little near-term risk of losing AUM (in fact, they have billions of 'dry powder' AUM they can call on at any time). However, investor sentiment's ultimately a key driver in the short-medium term, so despite my comments (& good underlying fundamentals) $FIG would probably still get hit harder in a decline. [Apologies, I neglected to reply in December - I think what you've seen since confirms my comments here].

    galicianova - I see no substantive change to my latest valuation. Now is a good time to highlight two things I particularly like about $FIG: i) obviously they employ leverage, but they aren't completely dependent on it (like Blackstone, for example) to earn decent returns - that's reassuring, and ii) unlike most of the alternative managers, $FIG mostly tries to invest according to a handful of investment themes (ideally via permanent vehicles) - I think these themes exploit some unique & compelling secular trends/opportunities.

    I've no reason to believe their upcoming Q4 results will bring any bad news, and they've clearly committed themselves to a significant top-up dividend (or buyback) - so I think these results will be fundamentally positive for the stock.


    Feb 11 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Fund Strategies In Your Sleep [View article]

    Thks, Chris! Wow, ValueWalk also just linked to a new post - when it rains, it a good way ;-)

    There's also plenty of listed closed-end alternative/hedge funds in London, for example - I'd recommend yr readers check 'em out also, well worth it! This post pretty much covers the gamut:
    Dec 10 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Investment Group - Up On The Ramparts [View article]

    Ever since I bought $FIG, I've never been able to make sense of the share price reaction to quarterly earnings..!?

    As per above, my assessment/valuation of $FIG is based entirely on Fortress' AUM, latest management fee rate, LT average incentive fee rate & net cash/investments. Quarterly DE/EPS is completely incidental to my investment thesis, which I think makes perfect sense - actually, I think investors who (appear to) trade solely on that basis are plain crazy...

    I topped up $FIG from a 5.0% to a 5.4% portfolio holding this week.
    Nov 13 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Investment Group - Up On The Ramparts [View article]
    Thanks. The $0.31 'top-up dividend' is somewhat arbitrary: The current run-rate for DE is about $0.85, which is $0.61 in excess of the current dividend - I've simply assumed 50% of these excess earnings get paid out.

    Note I've highlighted this top-up dividend could also occur as some type of share repurchase instead - Fortress actually opted for this alternative last year, buying back $179 mio of stock at yr-end (equivalent to $0.36 per share). Noting this, and considering DE's significantly higher this year & management's repeatedly promised a reduction in balance sheet cash/investments, my estimate of a $0.31 top-up distribution (in whatever form) might actually prove conservative.


    Nov 13 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Investment Group - Up On The Ramparts [View article]
    Ta DVL, Hard to buy & hold this one originally - but looks like everybody is coming 'round to loving $FIG now!
    Nov 12 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Investment Group - Up On The Ramparts [View article]
    And take a look at the blog:

    Search for 'Fortress' and '(alternative) asset managers' - you might enjoy some of my previous articles on both topics.
    Nov 12 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortress Investment Group - Up On The Ramparts [View article]
    Thks twhite,

    Yes, FIG should definitely be rewarded for what seems clearly a better risk/reward proposition, on a relative basis. But it really hasn't - it's been the neglected step-child among the marquee alternative asset managers in the last few years. I really can't point to any specific reason why - except perhaps how over-valued FIG was originally in the market. But sentiment's steadily improving now!


    Nov 12 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weight Watchers: A Plan At Last [View article]

    I'm just operating from a 1,000 foot view here: Fixing the basic/core business is obviously the most important priority here. But it also seems like management are fairly clueless about seizing emerging market opportunities. And I'm not talking about a future growth opportunity, I'm talking about today - I'm constantly noticing how far emerging markets have come already. Mexico's now the fattest nation on earth, the Middle East is perhaps becoming one of the most overweight regions globally, and more & more middle-class Indians are now flaunting spare tyres. Considering the social culture in these countries, it seems like WW meetings would be a real winner! And I'm sure there are plenty more opps. like that out there...
    Nov 7 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asta Funding: Accounting Peculiarities Hide Significant Value [View article]
    Good one! I tend to think about value here in terms of return on equity - so I don't really need to determine a value for 'off-balance sheet' assets (i.e. if they're valuable, RoE will be higher, therefore my fair P/B multiple would be higher too). Of course, all this really just highlights the large amount of idle cash on the balance sheet!

    Of course, one could argue 'cash is cash' - but investors tend to mark it down if they're afraid they may never enjoy it (and/or it's wasted on bad acquisitions - though considering the Sterns' cautious attitude in the past few years, I think that's unlikely). This cash needs to be invested effectively to attract an appropriate & rewarding rating.

    What this really highlights is the value of a catalyst when you make a value investment... But I didn't think I needed one making this investment, as I was v optimistic a wave of delinquent credit card/consumer debt was still coming (at mere pennies on the dollar). That never happened (deadbeats had defaulted on their mortgages instead, which was altogether unprecedented), or maybe the Sterns were too cautious about buying.

    Anyway, we both agree there's significant value here...I'd just like to bloody well see that significant value in the share price!
    Oct 29 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • From Russia With Love: Closed-End Funds [View article]
    Seems like a decent fund, I've considered buying it before - on balance though, I still prefer JPMorgan Russian Securities (JRS:LN), which I currently own. It trades on a slightly larger discount, appears to have a less volatile NAV, has about double the market cap, and it has a longer life/performance history. [$TRF is a pretty similar US alternative, but note the market cap's far smaller].
    Sep 24 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cresud's Value Is Anchored In Real, Attractive Assets [View article]
    I haven't looked at Cresud recently - I'm still not interested in Argentine stocks at this point. But you should take a look at IRSA (IRS:US), its majority owned real estate sub. - there's a significant non-controlling interest there.
    Sep 11 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Agricultural Plays: Farmland Back In The USSR [View article]
    I wonder why too..?!

    Well, all the farmland companies (with cash issues) are still crashing, as I expected. But I'm starting to wonder about valuations & how cash-burn rates are looking now... In fact, Continental Farmers Group was in terrible financial shape, but just got taken out by the Saudis - I suspect most shareholders have no clue how lucky they really were there...

    A fresh peer-review across the board is on my to-do list, but once again looking at their share prices...there's clearly no rush! But we are approaching harvest season, which should represent a somewhat improved fundamental position later in the year for these companies, so I certainly plan to prep. for that as a potential opportunity.
    Aug 6 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment