Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Oracle [View article]
You should read the article before you post comments.
"And so, with such a horrible miss, are earnings "whisper's" meaningless?"
Why? Because they fell short of the whisper number? We provide post earnings price movement information when they company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
"Lesson learned, never trade on earnings."
Why? Did you place a trade on Oracle? If so what type of trade? And more important based on information from where? Your own homework? Certainly not based on our data.
"Lesson: only by a stock or its option after earnings. And don't pay attention to earnings or whispers of earnings or analyst estimates."
Again, did you read the article? Why are you posting these comments on our article? Is there anything in this article that discusses a 'pre-earnings' trade opportunity? Or pre-earnings price movement? No, it's all post earnings price movement. Do we discuss or provide any data on after hours trading activity? No, all intra-day price movement.
Everything about your comment has no basis on anything in the article.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For H&R Block [View article]
Thanks for the comments mjolnir. If you read the article it states "Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site". So its an earnings expectation of investors/traders. We also state that "While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's "price reaction" to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key." Hope that helps.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For J.C. Penney [View article]
"The article should conclude that the whisper number has no verifiable and rationale relationship with the price of JCP stock based on the limited data used for producing this article."
8.5 years of quarterly earnings data not enough for you (just for JCP)? Plus 15 years of overall earnings data and proprietary earnings expectations? You now just sound irrational.
"For the article to be complete, other data needs to be included: overall market action during the specified time frames. Retail industry market action. . . P/E of JCP based on past year, past quarter and new report/earnings in relationship to the post report stock price changes, as well as other data."
Why? You're trying to force your beliefs on what 'should' and should not' be included to be 'real' useful information. Why stop there? Why not add weather patterns and temperatures, the time of day, your age, your emotion, what color clothes your wearing, the time down to the second, where the market stands, etc.. You could do that do, correct? But when you add all that noise you come up with nothing useful. Strip away the noise (as we have done) and we've found something very useful. Trading on whispers is a technical play on market psychology, rather than a bet on a company's fundamental strengths.
"I know your goal was to write a short internet article on the Whisper number to share price action for JCP. "
Um, no, that's not our goal. You pretend to know too much (and prove too little).
"However, ignoring other factors just results in useless data and including all the other factors results in too much work to write the article".
You write as if what you are stating is factual, not opinion. We've found a useful and accurate model with the data we collect and provide. Very simple.
"The choice or question is, should I bother writing a useless article when I don't have the time or resources to write a properly thought out and researched article that it is helpful, accurate and meaningful? "
The article presented (to most people) is thought out, researched, and presented properly. There are those that will disagree and try to force their values, thoughts and opinions on it to make it seem less. That doesn't make it any less useful.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For J.C. Penney [View article]
Could you try to complicate the issue any more? A pattern is a pattern is a pattern. If you choose to believe that without taking every other factor into account means that one proven factor is meaningless, so be it. I can't argue with that, its your opinion. Doesn't make it right.
And you contradicted yourself. You went from "useless" to stating "Actually, the one trade-able action that can be culled is that JCP shareholders are 100% of the time better off selling their shares before JCP's quarterly earnings report and then buying back those same shares sometime in the next 30 days." That's the point of the article, the data provided, and was re-iterated in my last response.
Thousands of others were able to figure this out without trying to over-complicate a very simple piece of information, post a response, and contradict themselves all for some unknown or self serving purpose.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For J.C. Penney [View article]
Any of the other words (aside from graph) would be acceptable. Most people would view the graphic as a table.
So you've viewed the data and understand that JCP is a "negative reactor" (as we indicated in the article). We're on the same page there.
But then you go on to make statements like "This of course is illogical", and the "charts" are "useless",
How is a company that has historically seen negative short term price movement following their earnings reports illogical or useless?
If you were looking to go long JCP following their earnings, would this data be illogical and useless? No, you would wait to take a position and look for when the negative price movement slowed or ceased following earnings.
If you were looking to add additional shares now, would this data be illogical and useless? No, you would look for when the negative price movement slowed or ceased following earnings.
If you were looking to short JCP, would this data be illogical and useless? No, you would short prior to or just following the earnings.
Do you know what contrarian data is? Many traders look for and only trade off of contrarian data. But to you its illogical and useless so it must be just that, correct?
Yes, there are many other factors that can influence price movement before, during, and after earnings. We've just found a correlation (based on a measly 15 years of data) that many companies react consistently (higher or lower) to beating or miss the whisper number expectation. Some are positive reactors, others negative reactors, and some are classic reactors (move higher when they beat, lower when they miss).
So, JCP reported earnings well short of the whisper and the stock has so far dropped 15% in after hours. Our data indicated price weakness if they missed the whisper and that's what happened, correct? The expectation wasn't a guess based on one report, or one opinion, the expectation was based on an historical analysis (15 years) of beating or missing the whisper number.
So here is where you didn't make yourself clear: what is illogical and useless about the "charts" (data)?
Buy Xerox: An Undervalued And Underappreciated Capital Deployment Opportunity [View article]
Based on the comments alone I never new there was so much emotion surrounding Xerox....you surely ruffled some feathers. And apparently if you read the transcript of an analysts call you have no authority to write about it...
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Priceline.com [View article]
Only one comment and you embarrass yourself timbui. Instead of trying to prove someone else wrong, and make yourself look oh so smart, how about asking a simple question, like "how did you come up with your price reaction data? My numbers are different."
First, did you read the article? We actually differentiate between after hours moves and intra-day moves. We stated "Following that report the stock realized a 10.9% gain in after hours trading, but turned and gave back 5.7% in thirty trading days."
So putting two and two together, perhaps our table lists just the intra-day move and not the after hours through one trading day? So yes, after hours the company moved 10.9% higher, but when the market opened, PCLN was at 650.06, and closed that day at 634.74. Guess what? That's a 2.4% loss in one trading day.
After hours: +10.9% Intra-day: -2.4% Net: +8.5% (+/- 0.2%)
Being as smart as you are I'm surprised you couldn't figure that out on your own though. Keep the 'productive' comments coming.
Should I go thru the numbers for the August report as well or can you figure that out on your own?
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Cisco [View article]
Overall, just meeting can be similar to a miss, but we don't have enough data for Cisco to come up with any type of good analysis. Historically Cisco has only reported in-line with the whisper number 1 time - we can look at what happened following that report (negative price reaction thru five trading days), but the data wouldn't carry a great deal of weight. Sorry we can't provide more specific information.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Exelon [View article]
That's the response I was waiting for. Let me address this issue by issue:
"It just bother's me when people think they are better than/their opinion counts more than everyone else just b/c they have something published here".
And yet your initial comments included "what a joke the whisper number is", and "I hope SA bans this garbage". How were those comments in any way productive to the article? They weren't, they were in fact a response to a comment on the board. And they come across as you knowing more about our data/methodology etc but without any knowledge of our company, data, or methodology.
"You still have never addressed my original issue with your reply to MWinMd. Instead you chose to attack me personally. How's that mature?"
That was the point, it wasn't mature. I just used the same statement you made ("rofl, what a joke") correct? If it was immature when we used it, then it was immature when you did.
Your original issue with our reply to MWinMd was misguided. You stated "Now we are suing people for their poll answers. Good luck with that." That twisted our words didn't it? Were you trying again to look better than anyone else here or make us look stupid? We stated "(and in doing so you're violating our terms of site use and may end up with a lawsuit)." Key word being "MAY". Not "we will", but "you may". Yes there is a big difference. Why is that required? Because we do take our data collection serious and there have been idiots that try to manipulate the data.
And as I replied to MWin, we did not mean to come across as defensive. But we did address his issues directly and specifically. We did need to come across definitive - we have to. This is data that many are using as a part of the trade decision process. If we are not confident in the information and do not believe that our methods are proper, than why should the end user?
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Oracle [View article]
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Oracle [View article]
"And so, with such a horrible miss, are earnings "whisper's" meaningless?"
Why? Because they fell short of the whisper number? We provide post earnings price movement information when they company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
"Lesson learned, never trade on earnings."
Why? Did you place a trade on Oracle? If so what type of trade? And more important based on information from where? Your own homework? Certainly not based on our data.
"Lesson: only by a stock or its option after earnings. And don't pay attention to earnings or whispers of earnings or analyst estimates."
Again, did you read the article? Why are you posting these comments on our article? Is there anything in this article that discusses a 'pre-earnings' trade opportunity? Or pre-earnings price movement? No, it's all post earnings price movement. Do we discuss or provide any data on after hours trading activity? No, all intra-day price movement.
Everything about your comment has no basis on anything in the article.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Guess [View article]
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For H&R Block [View article]
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Staples [View article]
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For J.C. Penney [View article]
8.5 years of quarterly earnings data not enough for you (just for JCP)? Plus 15 years of overall earnings data and proprietary earnings expectations? You now just sound irrational.
"For the article to be complete, other data needs to be included: overall market action during the specified time frames. Retail industry market action. . . P/E of JCP based on past year, past quarter and new report/earnings in relationship to the post report stock price changes, as well as other data."
Why? You're trying to force your beliefs on what 'should' and should not' be included to be 'real' useful information. Why stop there? Why not add weather patterns and temperatures, the time of day, your age, your emotion, what color clothes your wearing, the time down to the second, where the market stands, etc.. You could do that do, correct? But when you add all that noise you come up with nothing useful. Strip away the noise (as we have done) and we've found something very useful. Trading on whispers is a technical play on market psychology, rather than a bet on a company's fundamental strengths.
"I know your goal was to write a short internet article on the Whisper number to share price action for JCP. "
Um, no, that's not our goal. You pretend to know too much (and prove too little).
"However, ignoring other factors just results in useless data and including all the other factors results in too much work to write the article".
You write as if what you are stating is factual, not opinion. We've found a useful and accurate model with the data we collect and provide. Very simple.
"The choice or question is, should I bother writing a useless article when I don't have the time or resources to write a properly thought out and researched article that it is helpful, accurate and meaningful? "
The article presented (to most people) is thought out, researched, and presented properly. There are those that will disagree and try to force their values, thoughts and opinions on it to make it seem less. That doesn't make it any less useful.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For J.C. Penney [View article]
And you contradicted yourself. You went from "useless" to stating "Actually, the one trade-able action that can be culled is that JCP shareholders are 100% of the time better off selling their shares before JCP's quarterly earnings report and then buying back those same shares sometime in the next 30 days." That's the point of the article, the data provided, and was re-iterated in my last response.
Thousands of others were able to figure this out without trying to over-complicate a very simple piece of information, post a response, and contradict themselves all for some unknown or self serving purpose.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For J.C. Penney [View article]
So you've viewed the data and understand that JCP is a "negative reactor" (as we indicated in the article). We're on the same page there.
But then you go on to make statements like "This of course is illogical", and the "charts" are "useless",
How is a company that has historically seen negative short term price movement following their earnings reports illogical or useless?
If you were looking to go long JCP following their earnings, would this data be illogical and useless? No, you would wait to take a position and look for when the negative price movement slowed or ceased following earnings.
If you were looking to add additional shares now, would this data be illogical and useless? No, you would look for when the negative price movement slowed or ceased following earnings.
If you were looking to short JCP, would this data be illogical and useless? No, you would short prior to or just following the earnings.
Do you know what contrarian data is? Many traders look for and only trade off of contrarian data. But to you its illogical and useless so it must be just that, correct?
Yes, there are many other factors that can influence price movement before, during, and after earnings. We've just found a correlation (based on a measly 15 years of data) that many companies react consistently (higher or lower) to beating or miss the whisper number expectation. Some are positive reactors, others negative reactors, and some are classic reactors (move higher when they beat, lower when they miss).
So, JCP reported earnings well short of the whisper and the stock has so far dropped 15% in after hours. Our data indicated price weakness if they missed the whisper and that's what happened, correct? The expectation wasn't a guess based on one report, or one opinion, the expectation was based on an historical analysis (15 years) of beating or missing the whisper number.
So here is where you didn't make yourself clear: what is illogical and useless about the "charts" (data)?
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For J.C. Penney [View article]
Buy Xerox: An Undervalued And Underappreciated Capital Deployment Opportunity [View article]
Good article, thank you.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Priceline.com [View article]
First, did you read the article? We actually differentiate between after hours moves and intra-day moves. We stated "Following that report the stock realized a 10.9% gain in after hours trading, but turned and gave back 5.7% in thirty trading days."
So putting two and two together, perhaps our table lists just the intra-day move and not the after hours through one trading day? So yes, after hours the company moved 10.9% higher, but when the market opened, PCLN was at 650.06, and closed that day at 634.74. Guess what? That's a 2.4% loss in one trading day.
After hours: +10.9%
Intra-day: -2.4%
Net: +8.5% (+/- 0.2%)
Being as smart as you are I'm surprised you couldn't figure that out on your own though. Keep the 'productive' comments coming.
Should I go thru the numbers for the August report as well or can you figure that out on your own?
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Cisco [View article]
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For CenturyLink [View article]
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Exelon [View article]
"It just bother's me when people think they are better than/their opinion counts more than everyone else just b/c they have something published here".
And yet your initial comments included "what a joke the whisper number is", and "I hope SA bans this garbage". How were those comments in any way productive to the article? They weren't, they were in fact a response to a comment on the board. And they come across as you knowing more about our data/methodology etc but without any knowledge of our company, data, or methodology.
"You still have never addressed my original issue with your reply to MWinMd. Instead you chose to attack me personally. How's that mature?"
That was the point, it wasn't mature. I just used the same statement you made ("rofl, what a joke") correct? If it was immature when we used it, then it was immature when you did.
Your original issue with our reply to MWinMd was misguided. You stated "Now we are suing people for their poll answers. Good luck with that." That twisted our words didn't it? Were you trying again to look better than anyone else here or make us look stupid? We stated "(and in doing so you're violating our terms of site use and may end up with a lawsuit)." Key word being "MAY". Not "we will", but "you may". Yes there is a big difference. Why is that required? Because we do take our data collection serious and there have been idiots that try to manipulate the data.
And as I replied to MWin, we did not mean to come across as defensive. But we did address his issues directly and specifically. We did need to come across definitive - we have to. This is data that many are using as a part of the trade decision process. If we are not confident in the information and do not believe that our methods are proper, than why should the end user?
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Exelon [View article]