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WhisperNumber

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  • Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Sirius XM [View article]
    RE Ford: we also indicated that the "strongest price movement of -1.4% comes within 30 trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number". In other words, beating translated to negative price movement (we called it an opposite reactor). http://bit.ly/11KN7YB

    SIRI tends to react as expected - strength on beat, weakness on miss.
    Feb 4 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Sirius XM [View article]
    Your comment is not very productive. Care to elaborate on your opinion?
    Feb 4 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Chevron [View article]
    The key isn't if it 'hit' the whisper (or the whisper 'hit' the actual), the key is as stated in the article: "The strongest price movement of +1.3% comes within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number". CVX opened today at 115.75 and trades at 115.97, less than a half percent higher. Data indicates a limited but positive move over the next ten trading days. So if you were looking for a big pop with a big beat, that just isn't in the cards.

    Could be worse, could have been XOM (see http://seekingalpha.co...): "The strongest price movement of -3.9% comes within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -4.6% within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number (negative reactor)." Either way they lose. They reported earnings 12 cents ahead of the whisper, stock is down half percent today and data indicates more to come.
    Feb 1 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Chevron [View article]
    Then isn't one comment from one person on this board statistically meaningless?

    You are correct, the whisper number came from 5 people - we post that data on the site as you indicated so it is not something we are hiding.

    Now lets take things a step forward:

    1. Those five individuals were more accurate than the 20 analysts that provided their estimate that made up the analysts consensus of $3.13. (You may argue that analysts are meaningless as well, but you don't post any comments indicating such when their number is mentioned).

    2. Determining a statistically meaningful sample size is quite involved (as I'm sure you know since you place a great deal of importance of statistically meaningful data). And on the surface, you could look at 5 points of data and say (without any review, investigation, analysis, etc.) that it is has no value. But 15 years of data and two independent published academic studies say otherwise. In fact we've found 1 point of data to be very meaningful, with accuracy of data increasing with each added point. But we've also found that the 'meaningfulness' does not increase after a certain point. Meaning (for example) 100 points of data (in regard to our specific data) is no more meaningful than 5 points of data.

    Point is a statistically meaningful piece of information is determined by its overall accuracy (in this case determining actual earnings reported and price reaction to beating or missing that number) when compared to the full database of information (in this case 15 years of whisper number data).

    Hope that helps.
    Feb 1 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Analysts Are Dead Wrong On Immunogen [View article]
    Help me understand the "Analysts are usually correct" statement. Do you mean in general or specific to IMGN?
    Jan 31 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Analysts Are Dead Wrong On Immunogen [View article]
    Analysts are dead wrong on most...
    Jan 30 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB): Q4 EPS of $0.17 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.59B (+40% Y/Y) beats by $60M. Shares -7% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    whisper number was 17 cents:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 30 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Ford [View article]
    While it really does not make any sense, at least the numbers are consistent. As we stated in the article, Ford is an 'opposite reactor'. Beat expectations and it tends to see weakness. On a positive note, the average price movement is only -1.4% within 30 trading days. On a negative note it's already down 7.2% from today's open.
    Jan 29 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Ford [View article]
    Any thoughts on the 30 cents now?
    Jan 29 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Ford [View article]
    Good call.
    Jan 29 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Ford [View article]
    Not sure what you mean by "I bet it's no more than the average analyst est. of 26 cents". Do you mean the actual earnings Ford will release will be no more than 26 cents? And what makes you 'highly suspicious' of the number 29? Have you had a bad experience with that number in the past? (The whisper number is 30 by the way.)
    Jan 28 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Starbucks [View article]
    Yes, moved against average.
    Jan 24 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Celgene [View article]
    Herein lies an issue with that so-called guidance: CELG reported 1.32, correct? Thomson Financial (see Yahoo finance) has the analysts estimate at $1.31, so they 'beat' that number. However, if you look at Market Current update here on SA, they say 'Q4 EPS of $1.32 in-line' (with analysts). So that is obviously another analysts estimate (probably Capital IQ). Zacks has the estimate at $1.18. Bloomberg also has it at a $1.18. So apparently not all 'analysts' were at that meeting. And as for the whisper number, that was $1.33. The company beat, met, beat, and beat the analysts (depending on your source), and missed the whisper.

    That aside, while they did offer guidance on annual earnings, they did not (as far as I could see) give guidance on this quarters earnings (I may be wrong here, but I couldn't find it).

    So yes, it may all be completely meaningless from a technical point of view, but when dealing with market psychology, the expectations may give traders a moment of pause during the run up in the stock. Will that happen? Well, even our data (as stated in the article) indicates a positive price reaction no matter what this company reports.
    Jan 24 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Apple Earnings Expectations Showing Confidence [View article]
    But would anyone go to crowdsourcedestimates dot com? ; )
    Jan 23 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Apple Earnings Expectations Showing Confidence [View article]
    AAPL earnings $13.81
    Jan 23 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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