Earnings Season Trading Strategy: Time To Catch Falling Knives [View article]
Just be careful about a comment like "the company fell short of expectations" which may imply "many companies see weakness when missing analysts estimates". There are no studies and no proven correlation between companies seeing strength or weakness when they beat or miss analysts estimates. See http://seekingalpha.co...
To Trade or Not to Trade: An Apple Earnings Preview [View article]
Estimate revisions? Really? Zacks? Really? Analysts? Really?That's your rebuttal to our 'skimpy analysis'? Guess we'd rather be skimpy than without value...
"With trading volumes down on Wall Street and commission rates near record-low levels, brokerage firms are starved for the revenue that stock trading used to provide. Since changes in earnings forecasts encourage many investors to buy or sell, analysts have an incentive to revise their predictions more often. But that hasn't made the forecasts more accurate. On average, according to Denys Glushkov, research director at WRDS, stock analysts are revising their earnings forecasts nearly twice as frequently as they did a decade ago. And while the typical forecast missed the mark by 1% in the 1990s, that margin of error has lately been running at triple that rate."
Buy Xerox: An Undervalued And Underappreciated Capital Deployment Opportunity [View article]
Based on the comments alone I never new there was so much emotion surrounding Xerox....you surely ruffled some feathers. And apparently if you read the transcript of an analysts call you have no authority to write about it...
Whisper Number Impact: Apple's Whisper Showing Confidence [View article]
How does the article read like an ad? And how is your link not considered spam/ad?
What is the source of your 'pro-analysis' whisper? And what happens if AAPL beats or missed that 'pro' whisper? Has it moved higher or lower as expected? How many quarters of data is it based on? Or is it just a number with no real value for trading?
Do you think the 'professional' analysts are on your side? Should read this http://bit.ly/NGWZhy, pay attention to myth #3.
The Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Yahoo, AMD, Apple [View article]
I've yet to hear an argument against doing your own homework. While I believe I have some insight into certain specific data (ie whisper numbers), unlike others I don't think that our data is the "be all end all". So many on here just fight that "this is right and you are wrong" versus "let me keep an open mind and review data and see if it can work for me". I don't get it, so many let emotions get in the way of valid data and better trading. Oh, well, their loss I guess.
And where does earningswhispers get their number from? You're very adamant about the 10.01 number not being the whisper, but seem very sure and confident that the other numbers are absolute and true. Why?
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Cisco [View article]
In regard to GE, we stated in our GE earnings article: "The average price movement through thirty trading days when the company reports earnings is negative (beat the whisper see weakness, miss and see weakness)." see http://seekingalpha.co...
So you agree that earnings price movement analysis is not valid based on what was stated in the article actually taking place?
Whisper Number Impact: Apple Earnings Expectations Show Strong Confidence [View article]
Just confused as to why you make it personal against the data provided. No, the data is not representative of all investors/traders and we do not state such, but over 15 years it has proven itself accurate in determining post earnings price movement. The article is not 'trying' (as you indicate) to present anything other than factual data and earnings expectations from a group of individuals that have proven a good bit of accuracy and value over time. That type of comment makes you come across as paranoid.
We saw similar comments last quarter when our data indicated a much higher number than the analysts, but AAPL topped those expectations. So again, no agenda here, not 'trying' anything, just presenting data.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Bank Of America [View article]
Absolutely, too numerous to track, and that's a great point. There is a great deal of (overwhelming) noise in and around an earnings report. We just happen to have found an indicator based on 'expectations' that has a very good track record (based on the past 15 years of earnings reports and earnings expectations). We're looking at a proprietary piece of data (the whisper number) and the average price expectation of 47 earnings reports. The only factor (for us and our clients) that we're waiting for right now is whether or not BAC misses or beats the whisper number.
Facebook (FB): Q4 EPS of $0.17 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.59B (+40% Y/Y) beats by $60M. Shares -7% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Citigroup [View article]
That article is still pending release by seekingalpha - should be out shortly. $BAC whisper number is $0.14, twelve cents ahead of the analysts estimate. Whisper numbers range from a low of $0.04 to a high of $0.23. BAC has a 54% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 25 of the 46 earnings reports for which we have data).
Whisper Number Impact: Apple's Whisper Showing Confidence [View article]
More than likely we made the same comment last quarter and the quarter prior to 'insight' like yours, but we'll say again: our focus is on price movement around earnings reports. We've never focused on or stated that a company will 'miss' or 'beat' any number. We provide an expectation (collected from investors and traders) and we provide some basic historical price movement analysis. Any 'number' taken by itself (as you have done) can't help you make a better trade - but if you are able to determine how a stock will react to beating or missing that number, then you have important additional information that can help you. If you choose to ignore that part of the article, then you've missed the point. And if you think there's value to only comparing our number to analysts then you're really missing the point. Take the number for what it is - an earnings expectation. Then take the analysis for what it is - in this case , and as stated in the article that perhaps you didn't read, "the key to playing Apple earnings, however, is the expected price reaction. Historically the after-hours move is positive, averaging +3.6% to 5.6%. The stock tends to give up ground over the next 10-to-20 trading days, but the move is very limited (around 2.0%). The stock then sees strength through 30 days (averaging about 5% to 6%)." If that is wrong, then our historical data analysis was wrong (in this particular instance). Pretty simple.
Earnings Season Trading Strategy: Time To Catch Falling Knives [View article]
To Trade or Not to Trade: An Apple Earnings Preview [View article]
"With trading volumes down on Wall Street and commission rates near record-low levels, brokerage firms are starved for the revenue that stock trading used to provide. Since changes in earnings forecasts encourage many investors to buy or sell, analysts have an incentive to revise their predictions more often. But that hasn't made the forecasts more accurate. On average, according to Denys Glushkov, research director at WRDS, stock analysts are revising their earnings forecasts nearly twice as frequently as they did a decade ago. And while the typical forecast missed the mark by 1% in the 1990s, that margin of error has lately been running at triple that rate."
Wall Street Journal, July 2nd, 2011
online.wsj.com/article...
No need to reply or comment on or read our skimpy analysis, I see you've been drinking the kool aid for quite some time.
Buy Xerox: An Undervalued And Underappreciated Capital Deployment Opportunity [View article]
Good article, thank you.
Whisper Number Impact: Apple's Whisper Showing Confidence [View article]
What is the source of your 'pro-analysis' whisper? And what happens if AAPL beats or missed that 'pro' whisper? Has it moved higher or lower as expected? How many quarters of data is it based on? Or is it just a number with no real value for trading?
Do you think the 'professional' analysts are on your side? Should read this http://bit.ly/NGWZhy, pay attention to myth #3.
The Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Yahoo, AMD, Apple [View article]
The Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Yahoo, AMD, Apple [View article]
Playing The Apple Whisper Number [View article]
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Cisco [View article]
"The average price movement through thirty trading days when the company reports earnings is negative (beat the whisper see weakness, miss and see weakness)."
see http://seekingalpha.co...
So you agree that earnings price movement analysis is not valid based on what was stated in the article actually taking place?
Whisper Number Impact: Apple Earnings Expectations Show Strong Confidence [View article]
We saw similar comments last quarter when our data indicated a much higher number than the analysts, but AAPL topped those expectations. So again, no agenda here, not 'trying' anything, just presenting data.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Bank Of America [View article]
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Staples [View article]
Why Analysts Are Dead Wrong On Immunogen [View article]
Facebook (FB): Q4 EPS of $0.17 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.59B (+40% Y/Y) beats by $60M. Shares -7% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Citigroup [View article]
Whisper Number Impact: Apple's Whisper Showing Confidence [View article]